Bears at Green Bay, Sunday night

[Tchocky]

I can't believe the Packers are only -3. I saw them yesterday at -3.5

My friend, a diehard Bears fan, told me I should stay away from this game. Is this a trap or easy money?

I see the Packers winning by at least 7 points.

[austintx05]

I have been fading the bears, as the loser of the SB have a horrid ATS record. Might not be the rout some might think, but I think the Packers match up very well in this game.

Not sure Griese is going to get any better on his 2nd road start.

[regularguy]

I'm going to be all over Green Bay -- I hope I can still get them at -4 or less early this afternoon. [Update: got them at -3.]

Everything about this matchup says Packers blow them out: Chicago has a lame running game; Chicago averages 3.5 turnovers per game (differential of -1.7); Chicago's defense has been a disappointment. On the other hand, Green Bay has an excellent defense; Green Bay takes care of the ball pretty well (average of 1.2 turnovers per game, with a turnover differential of 0.7). Mostly, the stars are aligned.

The Bears are beaten down. It's getting ugly. I think the big problem is that their offensive line is just not very good. You can't fix that by talking loud in the locker room.

This is the Packers' homecoming after a good win at Minnesota, at which Favre broke the career TD record. This will be a party. The Bears will not be the guest of honor.

I guess I'm betting on some home favorites this week.

[eggy6198]

On first look this seemed the play of the week.

The bears D is beat down and the off is just bad with or without Grossman. However i don't think Green Bay are the real deal They have not been playing great teams and where very lucky against the Eagles.

As Green Bay can not run the ball and the Bears did stop the Lions passing game for half a game I think this is one where some key TOs will have a big impact.

The Bears can win if the new QB plays better after another week taking the snaps in practice and the D steps up and has a big one. I am moving towards a pass as I see why they won't win.

My gut is also staying only a maybe.

You would be mad to play the bears but their are some danger signs on this. Will the real Bears stand up

[austintx05]

I understand the Packers have not had a real tough schedule, but the Bears are not going to pose the problems that you need to go againt the Packers.

[B1GER1C828]

im taking greenbay on every possible bet i can gb -3 gb str8 up gb at end of each qtr each half end of every second gb easily

[NardVa]

Go with Chicago on the money line. Chicago didn't play as bad as the score indicated at Detroit. I'm surprised Green Bay keeps winning with no running game but I think Farve's luck runs out this week.

[slacker00]

Take the Packers. This one isn't as difficult to 'cap as it looks.

If I was a Bears fan, I'd already be calling for Orton. He can't do any worse than Griese. With Griese, there's zero upside. He's a clipboard QB at best. Might as well load the gun and take a shot with Orton. He must've learned a couple things since his rookie campaign. But, I haven't gotten a good look at Orton at all since he was a rookie, so maybe he hasn't made enough progress yet. But if he isn't progressing along, why is he still on the roster at all? If he's got a helmet, put him in the game.

[moneyplays]

This is a no-brainer. Packers. Chicago is in deep sh1t. Packers don't have a running everyone knows that. They will still pass all over that chi secondary. Jennings is going to have a great game.

[mrmark]

I dont think I want the Packers this week I just saw what the Pricks picks where and he has The Packers -3 and its best pick better be careful here His picks have'nt been worth a shit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[slacker00]

I dont think I want the Packers this week I just saw what the Pricks picks where and he has The Packers -3 and its best pick better be careful here His picks have'nt been worth a shit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

you realize, prick just uses that "magic 8 ball", right? then he writes up some bs so management around here thinks he's actually working or whatever. Truth is, he's already blown it all at the track anyway. Prick doesn't know enough to fade him.

[Doc JS]

GB 4-0
Det 3-1
Chi 1-3
Minn 1-3

Much bigger game for Chicago than GB, IMO. Chicago loses and falls to 1-4 and 4 games behind GB at 5-0, they're in a world of hurt.

Chicago is still pretty banged up on the defensive side of the ball. And they've still got their QB issues. But I don't think it's a stretch to say their season may hang in the balance.

[SBR Lou]

Green Bay improves to 5-0. You just can't make a case anymore for this Bears team. They have the equivalent of Rex Grossman throwing the ball, Brian 'Release Me' Griese, this guy is passed around more than dirty mags in the joint. His ex teammate Ronde Barber blasted him as saying Lovie didn't make the switch sooner because Brian isn't a viable option! He's 1000% right.

Defense, special teams, defense, special teams. At some point, you cannot keep betting on a team for these two reasons. I like Favre to spread the field here, the run defense of the Bears doesn't matter too much because the Pack have no damn running game anyway. But neither do the Bears.

Which means, home field plays into this one, it's the 50th anniversary of Lambeau, I expect them in throwback uniforms, Favre lifted the monkey off his back and is making better decisions with the football.

BRIAN GRIESE, on the other hand, is an absolute failure at the position. You simply cannot beat the Packers right now WITHOUT A QUARTERBACK, he doesn't even have to be a great quarterback for crying out loud, but he can't be named Rex Grossman or Brian 'Release Me' Griese! The Bears lose on the road, and Griese once again does his best Rexy impression ever.

[Hemlock21]

ML Chicago is the only way to go. Don't be surprised if the Packers lose by double digits.

[onlooker]

Passing on this one, but I hope the Bears win.

[SBR Lou]

Guys, spell out some Chicago reasons besides "must win". I honestly don't believe Johnnie Cochran, god rest his soul, could make a case for them to go on the road and beat Green Bay with their pathetic backup QB. Remember his last outing in Lambeau?

[EGGY6199]

Crazy why I think the bears can win.

(1) green Bay are over rated as in the teams they are beating they match up against or got some big TOs (the random factor)

(2) the Bears last week actually at one point looked like they where going to roll the Lions. Then he started throwing picks one which wasn't his fault.

(3) where are the injuries on the bears? Is it their line, LBs or secondary? As we all know the Pack can't run hence the bears who have a great D when healthy only have to shut one side down. Which they can do.

(4) Farve has always won games on his own back but he can not always do it.

I can always think of a hundred reasons why the Bears will lose but there is some doubt.

Saying that i will be playing the under and the Pack

[jon13009]

Forget the stats with this one, this is an inter-division rivalry with both teams wanting to win this one.

With GB only a 3 point favorite, the only thing separating this game is home field advantage for the Packers.

GB beat SD (at SD 31-24), CHI lost to SD (at SD 3-14 - Grossman at QB).

GB is living and dying on Favre's arm, and CHI feels like it can score some points now. CHI's D will have to shut down Favre to win this one, and the Chicago D is what took them to the super bowl last year. If Favre has a bad day and the Bears get to him early, the Bears may score just enough points to win this game. Is Griese bad - Yes. Is Grossman bad - Yes. Do the bears have a running game? - No (27th in the league.) What possible chance do the Bears have to win this game?

Griese will either put up the points or Lovie will bring Rex back to win the day(!?) Why not? Rex will have had the pressure removed because Griese will have been ineffective in the game at that point, and Rex will be in a position where he has nothing to lose again. Grossman is a serious head case, but a head case that has the potential to be a decent NFL QB - in the right circumstances. This may be a silly comment, but I am grasping at straws here.

Yes the Bears "must win" this game, and GB is rather confident at 4-0, but (if the Bear's injury list does not get larger), I feel CHI can cover and even win outright.

[Thomasha7]

Packers Win

I don't think the packers will have to much trouble beating the bears. I could be wrong, but with the bears defense not showing up last week, and the way Favre and the rest of the offence is playing i'm going to even predict a two or three score win by the Pack. They should be able to pull out a 14 to 17 point win in my Opinion. If i'm wrong i'm sure i'll here about it on Monday if not sooner. Go Pack Go.

[swifty]

Chicago has yet to cover the spread. Just don't blame the defense. The Bears already have 16 sacks this year, so they may initially give Brett Favre a few problems. If Green Bay had a legitimate ground attack to turn to, I could say it would take some of the pressure off Favre. However, the Packers' two leading rushers have a combined 184 yards on 61 carries - good for three yards a pop. That said, I believe Green Bay could start scoring in the second half. Bears fans saw it against the Chargers, Cowboys and Lions - their stop unit gets too tired from being on the field the entire game. If Chicago's offense can't sustain long drives, Favre and the Packers will wear the Bears' defense down.

[swifty]

Injuries: BEARS: OUT: DT Dusy Dvoracek, S Mike Brown.


I think every football bettor is excited to bet the hot Packers against the struggling Bears.
Percentage of money on Green Bay: 92% (17,000 bets)

Prediction

Packers 33, Bears 10
Packers -3 (1 Unit)
over 40.5 (8 Unit)

[LT Profits]

If the Packers win this game, they essentialy lock up the division at an early stage (forget the Lions). Are they really THAT much better than the Bears?

That logic alone has me thinking Bears here, but I still need to look closer.

[Thomasha7]

Swifty, Well said. Your right about Green Bay's running game. At this point it's pretty much dead. But as the season rolls on, I hope they can pick up some of the running game. It will only help there offence in the long run. The other nice thing about being in the NFC. You typically only need to go 8-8 on the season to make the playoffs. The nice thing for Green Bay is there half way there. GO Pack Go.

[SBR Lou]

I'm no Packer lover. They've burned me a few times, beginning last year against the Bears at the end of the season. I also bet against them opening day against Philly. I also have backed the Bears in a few other games which Rex or Brian collectively lost, so I have no problem betting either team really.

That being said, if I play this game, it simply will not be about the Bears defense or special teams. That's why I do not see myself betting Bears. If they had a quarterback that I felt was capable enough to deliver, I'd almost invent reasons to bet the Bears because they should be able to win this game. As it stands, they have no quarterback that I trust, and that's that. I have simply went down the defense, special teams, even home field in some cases to justify a Bears bet, guess what? It comes down to the quarterback and the now lack of an efficient running game with Ced Benson.

[McBa1n]

I have to say this is a total 'trap' game. While Favre in his career has done superb against the Bears - recent history tells a different story up at Lambeau (0 and 3). Winning in Minnesota is always job #1 of any 'reasonable' packer season - beating the Bears has become secondary. They seem focused, but I can see them getting a bit full of themselves (just a touch). They've been making big plays at key times to win ball games, unlike previous years. The Bears have made a living off of this previously. The Bears NEED this game more than GB. GB NEEDS to win 1 against CHI, and it's their best shot right now, however.

I still think it's too close to call, pending the injury report. I favor Chi on the ML, though, definitly - by a few points right now. I think if the Bears get some more people back, I would favor them by 5 or 6.

My reasoning is GB has been terrible at protecting the ball - they have fumbled a LOT this season and CHI is fantastic at taking the ball away, even with a few studs out.

GB's special teams are still terrible. It wouldn't shock me to see Hester make some big plays, should GB choose to kick to him... And not kicking to him means a shorter field to work with, generally.

If GB doesnt turn the ball over, they can win. I just don't see them NOT turning it over a few times (and those turnovers are why the Bears have had success up at Lambeau the past 3 years).

[regularguy]

Chicago's turnover differential: -1.7

Green Bay's turnover differential: 0.7

Green Bay has done a good job this season taking care of the ball.