what you think about these picks?

slacker00 · 09-29-07, 01:37 PM

half of these games are a crapshoot either way, IMO. Tough to know. We're on board with my fav 5: Indy, NE, GB, Det, St.Louis. I also like Oak, Carolina but those two are iffy.. I'm going with Philly, Seattle, Houston, Arz, Cleveland but those are pretty iffy as well. Do you really like Buffalo hosting the Jets? I know they are getting 3 1/2, but still. Jets are still tough, but Buffalo looks pretty soft.

swifty · 09-29-07, 02:10 PM

The Game. Edge: Jets.
Injuries: BILLS: OUT: QB J.P. Losman, TE Kevin Everett, DE Anthony Hargrove, DE Ryan Denney, LB Paul Posluszny, LB Keith Ellison, CB Jason Webster.

Buffalo is coming off a 38-7 loss to the Patriots. But Bills fans shouldn't be discouraged. In fact, they should be proud of their team. New England has beaten everyone else this season (San Diego and New York) by the score of 38-14. That means Buffalo is only seven points worse than the Chargers and Jets! If that's not a reason to celebrate, I don't know what is.

Considering Trent Edwards had his first taste of NFL action against the best team in the league, he can only get better, right? Edwards completed four of his first five passes for 55 yards. Unfortunately, he was only 6-of-15 for 42 yards and a pick the rest of the way, as Bill Belichick adjusted on the fly. I could see Edwards playing well in his first start; the Jets' pathetic secondary just surrendered 318 passing yards to 83-year-old quarterback Trent Green. Lee Evans will finally get going; he had 10 catches, 198 yards and a touchdown in two meetings versus New York last year. Once Edwards establishes that he's a legitimate threat - made possible by the Jets' non-existent pass rush that has only one sack this season - holes will open up for Marshawn Lynch. New York is 19th against the run, so I'm going to predict that Lynch will eclipse the 100-yard plateau for the first time in his career.

Thanks to a massive injury list and a lack of defensive free-agent signings this offseason, Buffalo has one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The team ranks 31st against opposing ground attacks, allows 280 passing yards per contest and simply cannot get to the quarterback (3 sacks). Then again, the Bills just played Denver, Pittsburgh and New England - three playoff-bound squads - so those numbers might be a little inflated. Still, Chad Pennington is going to have a field day utilizing play-action off of Thomas Jones' massive gains. I don't see how Buffalo can restrict New York to less than 24 points.
The Jets should be able to control this game, but I don't think they will. First of all, Buffalo historically has dominated New York at home. Secondly, the Bills, despite their horrendous 0-3 record, are a bit underrated because they've played three really tough opponents, and actually managed to hang with one. And finally, the public is pounding the Jets, who are favored by 3.5, the worst point spread in football. I'm going with the live dog.

The Psychology. Edge: None.
The Bills obviously want to win their first game, but the Jets can't afford to go to 1-3 either.

The Vegas. Edge: Bills.
Buffalo is considered one of the worst teams in the NFL. The average bettor doesn't wager on crappy teams.
Percentage of money on NY Jets: 83% (20,000 bets)

The Trends. Edge: Bills.
History: Home Team has won 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Road Losers: Teams with a losing record are 31-100 SU on the road after a victory since 2003.
Jets are 5-1 ATS as a favorite under Eric Mangini.
Bills are 11-1 ATS after playing the New England Patriots since 1999.
Bills are 9-4 ATS as a dog under Dick Jauron.
Opening Line: Jets -2.5.
Opening Total: 37.
Weather: Partly cloudy, 72 degrees. Mild wind, 11 mph.

Fantasy Spin.
Start Em: Chad Pennington, Thomas Jones, Laveranues Coles, Jerricho Cotchery, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans.
Sit Em: Both Defenses.

Prediction: Bills 27, Jets 24
Bills +3.5 (2 Units - Money Pick)
Over 37.5 (2 Units)

slacker00 · 09-29-07, 03:40 PM

Nice write-up. I'm sticking with the Jets.

Tus · 09-29-07, 09:42 PM

Most of your plays are favor... I think more than 50% will lose.
NFL and College are going almost similar so take the underdog if you wanna win big