I think Dolphins -4 is a really good play. Let's talk about this a bit....

[imgv94]

Dolphins -4

Is there any reason why the Dolphins aren't going to win this game by more than 4?


Would like some thoughts on the game and possible line movement. I'd like to see -3.5 or -3 (-120).

Thanks SBR cappers

[shrax4]

I'm likely going to be on the Raiders. Why? Only cause Ace-Ace is looking at them over at therx. Check his Week 4 NFL thread out before you bet this.

[EGGY6199]

Because Miami are crap?

[LT Profits]

I would never give more than a field goal with a team that is 0-3.

[Doc JS]

I would never give more than a field goal with a team that is 0-3.

imgv,
You may be right, the Fins may cover the spread...But I'm inclined to agree with LT here, it's really, really hard to get behind a team that is 0-3 for more than a field goal, even against a team as bad as the Raiders, who as we all remember, managed to piss away a 16-0 lead last week before barely holding on against the equally inept Browns.

[durito]

The Dolphins may be 0-3, but they have +.4 yd per play differential over their opponents and are only 0-3 because they are -5 in turnover differential.

Those #'s would have me looking hard at the Dolphins for a play this week.

However, teams that win their first game of the year in week 3 (to go to 1-2), are 32-11-1 ATS as a dog in week 4 (since 1985). The Raiders apply to that angle, and I don't want to go against it.

Betting on winless teams, is actually a pretty profitable strategy, but it works much better after 4 or 5 weeks, and when they are underdogs.

I'm thinking Dolphins probably win this game, but it may be just by a field goal.

[eyeball]

I think Oakland wins outright, I don't think Zack Thomas is playing this week. In the Miami Herald it said : Thed Fins are a multi talented team they can loose ON OFFENSE, DEFENSE, OR SPECIAL TEAMS. I really have followed the fins since Shula's days, but the whole team is not playing together,. Trent Green is average, and I think they will find a reason to loose, fumble etc. It's rebuilding time and I think they are allready looking to next year and are talking about trading Jason Taylor. Score Oakland 27 Miami 20

[Razz]

I'll always lay more than a FG with an 0-3 team, as long as it's not against another 0-3 team. Winless favorites against non-winless opponents after week 3 are golden.

[tblues2005]

Both teams are really bad teams currently, I say stay away from this game and watch it.

[Crayzee]

wow-
i think oak is best play on the board

[swifty]

Go with the ML and take maimi

[B1GER1C828]

i tink oakland wins this outrite..putting up points and miami is just plain garbage and i disagree wit oakland bein terrible i just think they need 2 figure out some things and their a .500 team ( mayb 7-9 actually) i no thats ridiculous but i dn i like the team

oakland ml

[french189]

dolphins win big at home this week for prides sake

[nevadaside]

Neither team is reliable in the least bit.......would you feel comfortable teasing either team 10pts & still say "there is no way that doesn't cover"? I wouldn't!

Yeah, ""MIAMI is winless, desperate, & @Hm"" - give me a break,

Yeah, "but OAKLAND is getting a field goal+ vs a team that so far has shown nada" (The other field goal you might need here is the one which Pollock boy Janikowski probably won't make).
We all know this already but, Freakin CHOAKLAND has struggled & lost @Hm vs the bottom of the barrel so far......I mean COME ON! Sucks cause I'm a RAIDER fan but "it is what it is".

Gee, lets see: teams that had shown nada so far (NO on MNF had shown nada in the scoring dept.............& still haven't even @Hm on the prestigious MNF plan).

The reality is either of these two teams has just as much chance covering as the other, why play this game at all? There are plenty of other matchups in either NFL or NCAAF that are not so borderline. I think to say either team "BLOWS" the other out is almost ridiculous too......of course to cover my azz here, "anything is possible".

If I played this game with "your money", & I was hell bent on playing KC, I still wouldn't take them @ anything worse than -3. Still counting my blessings I got my 2* back last week on KC-3 vs the losing -3.5.

GL as always im!

[slacker00]

Who is starting for Oakland at QB? Culpepper? I'm taking Miami.

[LLXC]

ML Miami cause Porter said so!

[TexansFan]

"Miami will win for prides sake?" You wager money with thoughts like that and you'll go broke.

Wasn't that what people were saying about N.O. last Monday night?

I'll take OAK and the points.

[area51steve]

Miami is garbage and them as a 4 point favorite is a waste of $$$. Take the raiders and the points and make sum money.

[VegasDave]

The Raiders have played pretty tough this year and could just as easily be 3 - 0 (or at least definitely 2 - 1) as they are 1 - 2. Just team VS. team, Raiders +4 is not a bad bet.

Factor in two strong motivational factors for the Raiders;
- Culpepper will be starting against the team that cut him loose and will be looking to show them they made the wrong move with a big game.
- Porter guaranteeing victory... last I checked, NFL teams didn't take too kindly to being guaranteed against.

Couple these with the fact that Miami is not only mistake prone but clearly has 0 - 3 on the mind and will be trying even harder/forcing and thinking about it instead of just playing the game, they will probably be even more tense.

A Miami win by 4 wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world, but I wouldn't classify it as a "really good play" by any means.

[likewhoaa]

Miami is garbage and them as a 4 point favorite is a waste of $$$. Take the raiders and the points and make sum money.

quoted for truthfulness.

[slacker00]

I already got the Miami ML at -200. I'll probably pick up Raiders +4 and hope for the middle. This one probably comes down to a FG at the end, hopefully Miami's kicker is worth a spit.

[EaglesPhan36]

Gotta take the pts here I think. Dolphins couldn't even stop the mighty Jets last week and I think the Raiders defense might wind up the difference. If Culpepper plays as a game manager and not an a-hole out to show what he could have done in Miami, I like OAK outright.

[sharktank1]

Raiders ML baby! As a single pick, take it to the bank.