Week 3 is generally where I start tapering off (in terms of number of games being played) and start focusing on fewer teams to hit harder. This season, I think I'm waiting until week 4, because I think we're in for a screwy week that will elevate 3-4 games to must-play status next week. Last week, dogs went 12-3-1 (at close) by my count... This week looks lean, but I see some diamonds in the rough. Here goes:
3* 10 point teaser- NE -6.5, Dallas +13, Pitt +1.5
3* Pittsburgh -8.5--- I just think they've elevated their game to another level and I think Alex Smith gets completely flustered by this D. I'm calling a Pitt Defensive TD in this one and Steelers roll.
1.5* Oakland -3
1.5* Denver -3 (this one worries me a bit, but I hit it already)
1.5* SD -4.5- (also hit GB ML for .5* below so essentially I have 2 1 unit plays needing SD to cover or GB to win. I think either SD wins by 10+ or GB wins outright. No FG decider here.
1* Detroit +6.5
1* KC -2.5 ( I normally blindly bet the dog ML on 2.5 spreads, but this was an exception)
1* Jets -3
1* Oak/Cleveland -40.5
1* Indy -6 (with no AJ, I like this play)
1* Indy 0 to Lions +12.5 (6 point teaser)
.5* STL ML +170
.5* TEN ML +180 (waiting until game-time on this, will update)
.5* ARI ML +310
.5* DET ML +220
.5* GB ML +210
And, my fun bet of the week:
1* (+160) 6.5 point TOTAL teaser: SD/GB -49.5, KC/Minny -40, Indy/Hou -53.5
Please spare me the following:
1) Don't you think you're playing too many games? A) Yes, I am.
2) Why play the SD/GB game like you did? A) Because I think I have a great shot at gaining 1 unit by SD covering or GB winning at +210. If either of those two things happen, I win 1 unit. I just have to avoid SD winning by 1-4 points.
3) Why tease games? They're losing plays. A) Because I wanted to. In the NFL, I think they're a legitimate strategy if used properly (note: my "fun" bet isn't the proper way to tease, but I liked the Unders in all those games anyway, and instead of putting 3* (1 on each under), I decided to tease them for fun.
Good luck guys.
EDIT: P.S. I intended this post to be post #1,000, but crappy planning did me in...
3* 10 point teaser- NE -6.5, Dallas +13, Pitt +1.5
3* Pittsburgh -8.5--- I just think they've elevated their game to another level and I think Alex Smith gets completely flustered by this D. I'm calling a Pitt Defensive TD in this one and Steelers roll.
1.5* Oakland -3
1.5* Denver -3 (this one worries me a bit, but I hit it already)
1.5* SD -4.5- (also hit GB ML for .5* below so essentially I have 2 1 unit plays needing SD to cover or GB to win. I think either SD wins by 10+ or GB wins outright. No FG decider here.
1* Detroit +6.5
1* KC -2.5 ( I normally blindly bet the dog ML on 2.5 spreads, but this was an exception)
1* Jets -3
1* Oak/Cleveland -40.5
1* Indy -6 (with no AJ, I like this play)
1* Indy 0 to Lions +12.5 (6 point teaser)
.5* STL ML +170
.5* TEN ML +180 (waiting until game-time on this, will update)
.5* ARI ML +310
.5* DET ML +220
.5* GB ML +210
And, my fun bet of the week:
1* (+160) 6.5 point TOTAL teaser: SD/GB -49.5, KC/Minny -40, Indy/Hou -53.5
Please spare me the following:
1) Don't you think you're playing too many games? A) Yes, I am.
2) Why play the SD/GB game like you did? A) Because I think I have a great shot at gaining 1 unit by SD covering or GB winning at +210. If either of those two things happen, I win 1 unit. I just have to avoid SD winning by 1-4 points.
3) Why tease games? They're losing plays. A) Because I wanted to. In the NFL, I think they're a legitimate strategy if used properly (note: my "fun" bet isn't the proper way to tease, but I liked the Unders in all those games anyway, and instead of putting 3* (1 on each under), I decided to tease them for fun.
Good luck guys.
EDIT: P.S. I intended this post to be post #1,000, but crappy planning did me in...