Razz's NFL 12/24-26

begolf25 · 12-20-05, 09:34 AM

I am glad you are on my Skins this week Razz. I may put a couple of dollars on them but I never let myself go heavy on my boys. After last week I am going to be following your lead and taking it easy. Not gonna get greedy right after a great week just for the sake of betting. You are right about the spread on the Skins game though. Even though I loved every minute of it you may have been able to get a more favorable spread if they didn't hand it to the Cowboys like they did.

Good luck to everyone this week on their plays. IMG, we need a lock to cash in on before Christmas. Got anything up your sleeve?

Razz · 12-21-05, 10:08 AM

Merry Christmas

NFL Overall (83-73-3, +28.05*)
NFL Sides (49-50-2, +4.15*)

4* Redskins -3 vs. Giants

Meaningful revenge in the NFL is very rare, in my opinion. But, this is one game where revenge could play a factor, in large part because I get the better team, and most importantly, better defense, in a game they should be plenty amped for. The “Wellington Mara Game” saw the Giants give an inspired effort, while the Redskins appeared lost on their way to a 36-0 loss. Now, the Redskins have that in their minds, as well as the realization they almost certainly have to win their final two games to make the playoffs.
Clinton Portis has finally started to resemble the back he was when he was in Denver, and the Redskins have been running the ball with ease the last few weeks, averaging nearly 200 yards per game the last three. It will only be easier this week against a Giants defense who didn’t come close to stopping Larry Johnson, and is missing one of their defensive leaders, Antonio Pierce.
Washington has been clicking defensively the last few weeks, with three consecutive victories, and their defense has regained their early season form. They will perform much better against Tiki Barber than they did in the first meeting. The Redskins have not allowed more than 140 rushing yards in any of their home games with the exception of the overtime loss to the Chargers, when LT exploded in the second half.
If Barber doesn’t gain 100 yards, the Giants have no chance, because Eli Manning has been quietly terrible lately. Manning has thrown 11 interceptions in his last six games, many of which have been coming at the most inopportune times, in or near the red zone. He is especially bad on the road, as is the whole team. The Giants have only two road wins this season - unless you count the game in the Meadowlands against the Saints - against the worst team in the league, San Francisco, and an overtime win over the Eagles, who were fresh off a 42-0 home loss, and have been playing terribly since McNabb and the other offensive playmakers have been sidelined.
This is a series that has been absolutely dominated by the home team recently, and it continues this week.
Redskins 27, Giants 10

2* Cowboys +5 @ Panthers

One of the best underdogs in the league goes to one of the worst home favorites in desperate need of a win. Bill Parcells’s record as an underdog is well documented, and the Cowboys have certainly proved capable in that role again this season. As a road underdog, they are 3-1 ATS, with upsets at San Diego and Philadelphia, and an extremely difficult loss at Seattle, in which they gave up 10 points in the last minute, to lose by three.
The Cowboys defense is much different than it has shown the last couple weeks. The difference is that they don’t face a great rushing attack this week, and they have the secondary to slow Steve Smith and the solid Panther passing game.
In a game which almost certainly will be a defensive struggle, I’ll take the points and the superior running game.
Cowboys 14, Panthers 13

2* Green Bay +6.5 vs. Chicago - The “History Repeats Itself” Set-up Game of the Week

I noticed an amazing parallel in this game and the Philly-NY Giants game a couple weeks ago. The away team was a three point favorite, and then the home team was blown away on Monday Night Football, increasing the line several points. In the first match-up, Philadelphia, though noticeably undermanned, showed heart off their miserable performance, and played the Giants evenly before losing in overtime.
Green Bay is also a very solid technical play, as they always play well as a home dog, and against Chicago. They are 8-2 ATS in both situations. Several other trends point to Green Bay in this one, but more importantly is the revenge they have from their first game, a 19-7 loss in a game they dominated. The Packers had 26-10 first down and 358-188 total yard advantages.
Much has been made of Lovie Smith’s decision to start Grossman, and he is being largely credited with the win last week. Still, he passed for only 93 yards, and the only touchdown he led his team to came on a 1-yd drive, the play after he threw an interception, which the Falcons fumbled. I don’t see him or a suddenly struggling Bears running game doing that much against a Packers defense that, prior to last week’s debacle, was ranked 5th in the league in total defense.
Bears 13, Packers 13

Most interesting game of the week: Chargers +1 @ Chiefs

Everything in the world tells me to take the Chiefs this week, but I am just passing on the game. I do thing there is an interesting correlation between this game and the Boston College-Boise St. bowl game. Four similarities:

1. The road team is unquestionably the better team, and would be around a 6-point favorite on a neutral field.
2. The home team has a long winning streak. (Boise 30 home wins in a row, KC 17 December home wins in a row.)
3. The road team is in a precarious emotional state. (Chargers coming off big win, and need to win out to have a chance at playoffs. BC has a long trip to a bowl game they don’t want to go to.)
4. The road team has previously been impressive in this situation. (Chargers have already halted a long home winning streak and a long overall winning streak on the road this season - at New England and at Indy. Also they are 12-1-2 overall on the road. BC has been one of the best bowl teams in the nation recently.)

NFL Totals (34-23-1, +23.90*)

I’m passing on totals, though I like under in the Texans, Panthers, Rams, Cardinals, and Ravens’ games. MNF opinion: Jets and under. Three straight weeks have gone to the favorite and over, but I think this week is different.

I will be busy the next couple of days, before going out of town late Friday.
Good luck to everyone this weekend, and have a merry Christmas, Hanukah, or whatever you celebrate. For those of you lucky enough to be spending time with those you love, focus on them, and don’t let sports or gambling take up your time. I’ll be back around the middle of next week.