Saints @ Colts
NO +6
U52.5
For spreads up to 7 pts the Colts are an unimpressive 5-11 ATS as home favorites in L5 years (regular season). Meanwhile, Saints were 5-1 ATS as RD last season and 7-2 as dogs. This should be a close game. Late FG to win it?
Public thinks 'Manning, Bush, Drees' and expects a shootout, and the total has been bet up by 2 pts already. No need to wait for 53, because totals hardly ever end on that number. Let's see how the Colts have done for totals set at 50 or higher, as home favorite of a TD or less (i.e. in a relatively close game).
2006
v CIN // IND HF -3.5; Posted total 54.5; Result 50 = UNDER
v KC // IND HF -7; Posted total 50.5; Result 31 = UNDER
2005
v SD // IND HF -7; Posted total 52; Result 43 = UNDER
2004
v SD // IND HF -7; Posted total 57; Result 65 = OVER
These are the only qualifying games in the L5 seasons. Clearly, in 2004 the Colts defense wasn't nearly what it is today (as partially reflected in the huge 57 total for 2004 against SD, down to 52 for the same home game against the Chargers one year later). The three games with a posted total within 2 pts of the 52.5 posted for Thursday's game stayed under by an average 11 pts. My projection is for a game with approximately 40 pts.
For the record, the above is based on past results. The past isn't the best indicator for the present. I also use indicators for the game day itself, which support the same plays.
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NO +6
U52.5
For spreads up to 7 pts the Colts are an unimpressive 5-11 ATS as home favorites in L5 years (regular season). Meanwhile, Saints were 5-1 ATS as RD last season and 7-2 as dogs. This should be a close game. Late FG to win it?
Public thinks 'Manning, Bush, Drees' and expects a shootout, and the total has been bet up by 2 pts already. No need to wait for 53, because totals hardly ever end on that number. Let's see how the Colts have done for totals set at 50 or higher, as home favorite of a TD or less (i.e. in a relatively close game).
2006
v CIN // IND HF -3.5; Posted total 54.5; Result 50 = UNDER
v KC // IND HF -7; Posted total 50.5; Result 31 = UNDER
2005
v SD // IND HF -7; Posted total 52; Result 43 = UNDER
2004
v SD // IND HF -7; Posted total 57; Result 65 = OVER
These are the only qualifying games in the L5 seasons. Clearly, in 2004 the Colts defense wasn't nearly what it is today (as partially reflected in the huge 57 total for 2004 against SD, down to 52 for the same home game against the Chargers one year later). The three games with a posted total within 2 pts of the 52.5 posted for Thursday's game stayed under by an average 11 pts. My projection is for a game with approximately 40 pts.
For the record, the above is based on past results. The past isn't the best indicator for the present. I also use indicators for the game day itself, which support the same plays.
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