Am I Thinking Correctly???

[vsdspread]

The SB line is Colts - 5 and ML -200 (I actually can get 195).

We all know that -5 is a dead number so more than likely the Colts are going to have to win by 6.

Most NFL Moneylines, where the favorite is a -6 point favorite, I belive the line is more like -240.

Obviously this makes huge value in the ML, so I am thinking of going with 2 unit ML play on the Colts, and a 1 unit play on the Saints +5, with the goal of hitting a nice middle.

Thoughts?

[LTCOL27]

I was thinking of doing the exact same thing.

[pavyracer]

nice thinking

[jackpot269]

Looks good to me!!

[GELATINOUS CUBE]

no, colts win by 10, but in a low scoring game. see you guys tomorrow night.

[ezmoney]

COLTS and UNDER 57!!!

no, colts win by 10, but in a low scoring game. see you guys tomorrow night.

Agree, 4 of last 5 Superbowls have gone UNDER. ( Last year barely went over)

EZ

[juuso]

No value in that middle IMHO.

[coloradobuff]

dont like the middle..u rooting for both teams..not a fan..

[vsdspread]

No value in that middle IMHO.

What are you talking about? Huge value in the Moneyline, this line should be -240.

I have a decent shot to middle the game, and the only way, I loose is if the Saints win outright and then I loose 1 unit + ML Juice.

I don't make this play if I don't like the Colts, but I handicapp the game for the Colts to win by 7; however not enough for me to make a point spread wager.

Final Bet made yesterday.

Colts ML - 190 ($3000 to win $1578)
Saits + 5 ($1650 to win $1500)

Max Win is $3078
Max Loss is - $1500

[twentyonekid]

dont like the middle..u rooting for both teams..not a fan..

i don't think the super bowl is about weather your a fan or not,its about having the right side and winning money......everyone had their own team to root for all year long so now theres only 2 real fans out there...colts fans,and saints fans,after that its all about money pal!!!!!!!!!!!!

[vsdspread]

Adding 2nd Half Play

Taking Over 27.5 for $3300 to win $3000 with Local.

My middle is looking solid right now, but still a long ways to go.

[ezmoney]

half, 10-6, my under looking good.

Ez

[vsdspread]

Picked up $1500 on the Super Bowl, to top off a a $9700 week.

Nice envelope coming from my Pinny agent tomorrow.