Upset Alert Watch! 2026-27

Aunty808 · 09-14-26, 03:26 AM

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Results
Week 1 Sept 9-Sept 14
S/U 1-2 - ATS 3-0
ROAD DOGS
7% NO+7' at Detroit LW 30-31 in OT
8% Ariz+9' at LAC UPSET! 26-14
9% Wash+6' at Phil LW 20-22
====================

Week 2 Sept 17-Sept 21
ROAD DOGS
(2%)3% Mia+12' at SF
(4%)5% NO+7' at Balt
(6%)8% Clev+8' at TB
(5%)9% Indy+6' at KC

*There was a rule regarding double-digit dogs but I can't remember what it is. I believe it was the double-digit dog was a no play. I'll just list them throughout the season and track them.

ROAD FAV
97% Phil at Tenn +7

I usually get the percentages on Sunday night to get the contestants first reactions. I'll make any updates if the numbers change.

good luck 2 all!

EDIT: (Update % on game day)

Aunty808 · 09-20-26, 11:29 AM

#Updated game day % numbers

Aunty808 · 09-21-26, 11:54 AM

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Results
Week 2 Sept 17-Sept 21
S/U 2-2 - ATS 3-1
ROAD DOGS
(2%)3% Mia+12' at SF....Blowout win......13-35 LL
(4%)5% NO+7' at Balt....Upset!! 24-17 WW
(6%)8% Clev+8' at TB....Upset!! 23-19 WW
(5%)9% Indy+6' at KC....30-33 LW

ROAD FAV
S/U 0-1 - ATS 1-0
97% Phil at Tenn +7.....20-24 LW
============

Week 3 Sept 24-Sept 28
Road Dogs
1% LAC at Buff
3% Atl at GB
3% Ari at SF
6% Tenn at NYG
9% NYJ at Det

Road Favs
98% KC at Mia
96% Sea at Wash

**
I'll make any updates if the numbers change.
(Updated % on game day)

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 09-29-26, 09:06 AM

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Results
Week 3 Sept 24-Sept 28
S/U 1-4 - ATS 2-3
Road Dogs
1% LAC at Buff.......16-24 LL
3% Atl at GB..........Upset! 35-14 WW
3% Ari at SF...........30-36 LW
6% Tenn at NYG...7-12 LL
9% NYJ at Det......24-31 LL

Road Favs
S/U 1-1 - ATS 1-1
Road Favs
98% KC at Mia.......19-24 LL
96% Sea at Wash..Upset! 33-31 WW
===============

Week 4
Road Dogs
2% Tenn at Balt
2% Mia at Minn
3% NE at Buff
6% LAC at Sea

Road Favs
90% Det at Car

* Note: Week 3 was the first losing week this season. Every year, like clockwork, the Universe shows up and everything loses. It likes to keep everything in balance. Never fails. The way I look at it is, Vegas lets Joe Public win every once in awhile, and then takes his winnings back the next week...lol. Did it show up in Week 3? I dunno.........

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 10-04-26, 11:19 AM

Update
Road Dog
9% NYJ at Chic
NYJ now a play

Road Fav
88% Det at Car
Detroit fell below 90% /NO PLAY

Aunty808 · 10-04-26, 11:16 PM

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Results
Week 4
S/U 1-4 ATS 4-1
Road Dogs
2% Tenn+11' at Balt........18-24 LW
2% Mia+9' at Minn.........10-15 LW
3% NE+6' at Buff.............Upset! 29-26 WW
6% LAC+7' at Sea........ 23-30 LW
Added play
9% NYJ+3' at Chic......12-23 LL

Road Favs
90% Det at Car....... 26-32 LL
** Detroit dropped to 88% and became a NO PLAY.
================

Week 5
Road Dogs
0% TBay at Dallas

Road Favs
100% Cinny at Miami
100% Denver at LAC
100% Balt at Atlanta
==============

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 10-08-26, 11:42 AM

Update

Week 5
Road Dogs
5% TBay at Dallas

Road Favs
94% Cinny at Miami
=======

Denver and Balt fell below 90% NO PLAY
84% Denver at LAC
62% Balt at Atlanta

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 10-12-26, 01:07 AM

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Results
Week 5
S/U 1-0 ATS 1-0 (1 ML)
Road Dogs
5% TBay+8' at Dallas....Upset! 24-16 WW

Road Favs
S/U 0-1 ATS 0-0-1
94% Cinny at Miami+7.......24-31 LP

Aunty808 · 10-12-26, 11:42 AM

Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%

Week 6
3% Wash+7' at SF
4% Tenn+7 at Indy
5% Arizona+10' at LAR
6% NYJ+7 at NE
6% Houston+3 at Jax

Using BMR opening lines. Will grade with covers contest closing lines.

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 10-18-26, 10:50 AM

Update: Adding
Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
4% LAC at KC

Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%
90% Buff at LV

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 10-19-26, 01:25 PM

Recap Week 6
S/U 4-1 ATS 4-0-1 ML 3-1

3% Wash+7' at SF 17-23 LW
4% Tenn+7 at Indy Upset! 26-20
5% Arizona+10' at LAR Upset! 18-16
6% NYJ+7 at NE 19-26 LP
6% Houston+3 at Jax Upset! 34-31
===============

Week 7 Early Look
Play on ROAD DOG less than 10%
5% Indy+5' at Minn
7% TBay+2' at Carolina
**TBay opened at +2' but now -1' at covers contest

Play against ROAD FAV more than 90%
96% San Fran-4' at Atl
92% Clev-1' at Tenn
91% Denver-5 at Arizona
==================

Another tool to use with this system.
Go to SurvivorGrid and find the top P% team. FADE that team.
Since week 1 S/U 4-2 ATS 5-1 ML Dogs 4-2

FADING THE FAVORITE
Week 1 26.8% LAC-9' vs Arizona 14-26 Arizona+9' WW
Week 2 29.5% TBay-8 vs Clev 19-23 Clev+8 WW
Week 3 39.9% KC-10 at Miami 24-10 Miami+10 LL
Week 4 39.6% Balt-11' vs Tenn 18-24 Tenn+11' LW
Week 5 41.7% Dallas-9 vs TBay 16-24 TBay+9 WW
Week 6 39.9% LAR-13 vs Ariz 16-18 Arizona+13 WW
Week 7 24.5% Hou-10' vs NYG

good luck 2 all!

Aunty808 · 2026-10-23T03:11:22+00:00

Updated Week 7
Week 7 24.5% Hou-10' vs NYG

good luck 2 all!