Bills vs Jaguars Wild Card Picks & Discussion

[SBR Andy]

A tough draw for both teams as the 12-5 Bills have to go on the road to face the 13-4 Jaguars in the wild card round.

Jacksonville has been as hot as any team in the league winning 8 in a row going into the playoffs. The books have this as a coin flip.

Feels like a game that may take 30 points to win so I lean Over 51.5 here.

Not sure Allen has enough around him to win 4 games in the playoffs.

Thoughts?

[ARCHIVADO98]

Allen played Hero Ball for years in the playoffs now. He doesn't have the best supporting cast, again, and one of the worst defenses in the playoffs.

I'm surprised future prices on the Bills are still this low. Last summer, three teams were equally rated and priced to win the Super Bowl: Chiefs, Ravens and Bills. I think those were popular picks and bookmakers will gladly take further action on Buffalo here at +500 division or +1100 Super Bowl LX. Allen has one healthy leg and a very tough bracket. If Bills win this week (see next post), the Patriots will take care of them at Gillette Stadium next week

Feels like Martingale fade material

[ARCHIVADO98]

Quick look at the Bills games off of a Bye Week (I realize the Bills did not have a bye last week, but Josh Allen did!)

2025 40-9
2024 35-10
2023 20-17 (vs prime Chiefs team)
2022 27-17
2021 26-11

Jaguars' rush defense is elite, so Bills offensive linemen would have to play the best game of the season (career?) to get an impressive score like that. I see the Jags D holding up and Cam Little making enough 3-pointers to win the game comfortably.

Fun Fact: Matt Prater (Buffalo kicker) has been injured and didn't practice yesterday. Meanwhile, Little played in 10 games since November 2nd and hasn't missed a kick for the Jaguars: 20/20 FG and 36/36 XP. The weather will be nice so if the Jags get to midfield, chances are they aren't punting: Little is 8-10 on 50+ yard attempts on the season, having made a 53 yarder and a 67 yarder in this same stadium last Sunday.

[SBR Andy]

A few plays posted on the NFL Picks page for Bills vs Jaguars:

Jacksonville ML (+100)
"Josh Allen is 0-4 SU and ATS on the road in his playoff career, and this is a tough spot for him to earn that elusive first win." - Mike Spector

Buffalo -1.5 (-106)
"In Josh Allen, I trust, especially after recent heartbreak in the playoffs. He'll toss his Superman cape on and get the job done, even if he has to drag his team kicking and screaming." - Gary Pearson

Over 51.5 (-110)
"The Jaguars' offense has been red-hot during their current eight-game winning streak, averaging 33.6 points during that stretch. Meanwhile, the Bills finished with the fourth-ranked scoring offense and have averaged nearly 30 points per game over their last three playoff runs (it's largely been Buffalo's defense that's let it down in the postseason)." - Liam Fox

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Dustin Saracini also going with the Jags today:

Jacksonville ML (-108)
"The Jaguars are one of the most complete teams in the league, boasting a top-10 pass defense alongside the league's best run-stopping unit. Look for them to make a deep run in the playoffs this season."

[brock]

Josh Allen has been suspect in his play of late. Going Jacksonville.