Packers vs Bears Wild Card Picks and Discussion

[SBR Andy]

It's an NFC North wild card showdown on Saturday night as the Bears host the Packers. Oddsmakers have this set as a near pick'em.

The Packers should have swept the season series but somehow let the Week 16 game slip away and lost in OT. They rested starters in Week 18 and now hope Jordan Love is back close to full strength.

WR's DJ Moore and Rome Odunze are both questionable for Chicago.

While the Bears are an unproven commodity in the playoffs, getting them at even money (+100) is very tempting.

Where is everyone leaning on this game?

[ARCHIVADO98]

There was under 10 situations in the past 15 seasons when Division Rivals faced off in the playoffs. I'm making the list right now because I think it's relevant - and the first impression is that the better coach will win this 'Game 3' a lot more often than implied ML odds would indicate.

Ben Johnson put together a great team and Williams is doing better than expected this season. But LaFleur is easily the favorite for me, if we're just comparing the HCs.

Lean: GB and I'll post my game 3 findings no later than tomorrow.

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Gary Pearson is siding with the Bears on the NFL Picks page:

Chicago +1.5 (-112)
"The Chicago Bears have only lost two home games this season, one against the Detroit Lions in Week 18 and the other in Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings. The Week 1 loss came before Ben Johnson and Co. figured things out. Green Bay is just 4-4-1 on the road, 0-3 since Micah Parsons' injury and 4-6 since Tucker Kraft's season ended."

[ARCHIVADO98]

I looked at all 9 intra-divisional matchups in the playoffs post COVID (2021/22, Rams SB until 2024/25, Eagles SB)

2024/25
*28-14 BALTIMORE bt. Pittsburgh (COVERED -7.5)
55-23 PHILADELPHIA bt. Washington (COVERED -6.5)

2023/24
None

2022/23
*34-31 BUFFALO bt. Miami (did NOT cover -13.5)
*24-17 CINCINNATI bt. Baltimore (did NOT cover -7.5)
*41-23 SAN FRANCISCO bt. Seattle (COVERED -9.5)
38-7 PHILADELPHIA bt. NY Giants (COVERED -7.5)

2021/22
*47-17 BUFFALO bt. New England (COVERED -4.5, 'The Perfect Game')
*34-11 RAMS bt. Arizona (COVERED -3.5)
20-17 RAMS bt. San Francisco (did NOT cover -3.5)

*Wild Card games

[ARCHIVADO98]

Home teams were favored 9 times out of 9 (makes sense, since they are the higher seed every time)

Home teams won the game 9 times. I would say 5 times home favorite DOMINATED, 3 times got lucky, and SF vs Seattle was a strange one (close first half, blowout by 49ers in the second half)

ATS home favorites +6-3 (average ATS margin over +10 points per game)

Favorites covered 6 times by 19, 25, 8, 24, 6 and 25 points (average = 18 points)
Favorites failed to cover 3 times: -10, -1, -1 (average = -4 points)

[ARCHIVADO98]

My play here: -130 two team TEASER

Bears +7.5
Jaguars +7.5

If the Rams -10 becomes available, I could take this teaser on top of the main play (0.5u at +145)
Bears 7.5
Jags 7.5
Rams -3.5

Both Chicago and Carolina game have a high chance of nasty weather. I like teasing games like that. LA -2.5 would be ideal but it's too expensive and I'd prefer to bet the Rams -7 live, if Panthers get off to a quick start.