TNF Week 8: Vikings vs Chargers Picks

[SBR Andy]

Week 8 of Thursday Night Football features 3-3 Minnesota taking on 4-2 LA. SBR's Gary Pearson breaks down the matchup in his Vikings vs Chargers prediction:

Spread prediction: Chargers -3 (-120 via FanDuel)

"Backing the Chargers to win by at least four points boils down to having more confidence in Justin Herbert than whoever Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell throws under center."


Over/Under pick (Best Bet): Under 44.5 (-108 via DraftKings)

"Carson Wentz and J.J. McCarthy are listed as questionable, both dealing with injuries. Initial reports suggested McCarthy will need another week, while Wentz is dealing with a shoulder issue.

The more probable outcome is that Wentz will line up under center. That won't fill Vikings fans with confidence, as, according to PFF, he has the worst rating of any quarterback with at least four starts. While he's only started two games, McCarthy's rating is even worse.

The Chargers' defense has been terrible over the last three weeks, conceding an average of 30.7 points per game. However, the Vikings offense isn't any better, averaging 18.8 points per game if you exclude the 48-point outlier against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals.

They have the sixth-worst offensive DVOA and haven't scored more than 22 points in three games.

Wentz has thrown four picks in the last three games, two of which to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 6, where he also fumbled. Meanwhile, Herbert has struggled to cope with his makeshift offensive line. He tossed six interceptions in the last five games and has been sacked 20 times overall, tied for the fifth-most.

That's an ominous thought against a Minnesota Vikings team with the second-highest blitz rate (38.9%)."



Who are you backing on Thursday night? Comment below!

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Dustin Saracini has his best Vikings vs Chargers player prop bets ready to go:

Justin Herbert Over 252.5 passing yards (-113 via DraftKings)

"After going over this number in the last two weeks, Justin Herbert gets a Vikings' pass defense that just got lit up by Jalen Hurts to the tune of 326 yards and three passing touchdowns. With the running back room decimated, Herbert has dropped back 38 and 55 times in the last two weeks, which includes a 420-yard, three-touchdown day in Week 7. With that type of volume, we should have no problem here as part of our best Vikings vs. Chargers player props."


Ladd McConkey Over 55.5 receiving yards (-114 via DraftKings)

"McConkey and Herbert have been finding their groove lately, with the wideout going over this number in each of his last two games. He's seen a surge in targets as a result, hauling in 16 catches on 24 targets for 167 yards over that span. I'm betting on Herbert to find him early and often on Thursday Night Football."


Justin Jefferson Anytime touchdown (+145 via DraftKings)

"With the Vikings likely trailing, and with the defense fresh off getting spanked by the Eagles, I'm expecting Minnesota to abandon the run game early on Thursday Night Football. Well, what does that mean? More volume for Justin Jefferson, who logged 10 targets a week ago.

It's honestly a crime that Jefferson has just one touchdown on the season. The Vikings need to get him going, or they're going nowhere. We're firing him up as part of our best Vikings vs. Chargers player props."

[SBR Andy]

SBR's Esten McLaren has three TNF anytime touchdown scorer predictions:

Kimani Vidal, RB, Chargers (+125 via DraftKings)

"Kimani Vidal, a sixth-round pick from the 2024 draft, will continue to play a larger role within the Chargers' injury-ridden backfield. Whether it be next man up or last man standing, Vidal played 67 and 64% of the snaps, respectively, over the past two games. In the first of those, against the lowly Miami Dolphins, Vidal totaled 138 yards from scrimmage and scored a touchdown.

Last week, Vidal faced a much worse game script as the Bolts lost by two scores to the Indianapolis Colts. With L.A. favored by 3.5 points and an Over/Under of 44.5 points at home tonight, I expect this matchup to be much more like the first for the breakout rusher.

The Vikings have held running backs to just three total touchdowns through seven weeks, but they allow a 75.8% catch rate and 4.17 yards per carry. Combine those with Vidal's workload and an expected lead, and I'm backing him as my strongest anytime touchdown scorer prediction tonight."


Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings (+150 via FanDuel)

"Though volume hasn't been an issue for Justin Jefferson while working with QB Carson Wentz (32 targets over his past three games), he hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 1 - the last full game with J.J. McCarthy under center.

Something has to give for the far-and-away No. 1 receiver, regardless of who's throwing the ball for the Vikes. The Chargers have allowed just three touchdowns to wide receivers, but they allow a 60.3% catch rate and 7.31 yards per target to the position. With Minnesota anticipated to be trailing in a game with an adequate Over/Under, Jefferson is once again the most likely touchdown scorer for the underdog."


T.J. Hockenson, TE, Vikings (+225 via Caesars)

"Like Jefferson, Hockenson has been getting plenty of attention from Wentz. The former first-round pick has been targeted 26 times over the past four games, including a season-high nine in last week's loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. He caught six of those for 43 yards, but hasn't scored since Week 3.

The Chargers have surrendered four touchdowns to tight ends. Hockenson has caught five of seven red-zone targets and scored his lone touchdown from the five-yard line."