The Road to $1,000,000: NFL Plays Tracker (2025–2032)

ddittie · 08-24-25, 10:17 PM

I have been waiting too long to wait another 4 weeks to soak up some data. This first bet will be more of me wanting to get my feet wet than analytical. If we win Week 1, we will roll into week 2 with another bet, otherwise, we will wait until after week 5 to start making bets.
After a couple of weeks, you'll catch on pretty quickly to my strategy.

Week 1 bet will be a 6 Pick Parlay:
BAL O16.5
BUF O16.5
PHI O17.5
CIN O16.5
ATL O13.5
GB O16.5
Current Odds are +138

I will post the odds I get when I make the bet. Bet sizes are $1,000.

ddittie · 08-25-25, 10:16 PM

I should add that based on last years numbers, I have a 50% shot at hitting this bet.

BAL O16.5	0.9411764706
BUF O16.5	0.8823529412
PHI O17.5	0.8823529412
CIN O16.5	0.9411764706
ATL O13.5	0.8235294118
GB O16.5	0.8823529412	0.5011275162

ddittie · 09-03-25, 06:26 AM

Couldn't get this bet in on time. Lowest it'll go on Philly is 18.5 now, with relatively shitty odds. MIGHT still do it, but doubt it.
Driving up today, will consider it on the way up.

Other bets I have my eyes on are:

Parlay		Odds
Eagles ML	Dak 1+ INT	-120
Cowboys ML	Dak 250+ Passing Yds	(+525)

Dak threw for 250+ yards in 52% of his 76 career regular season wins.
In regular season he threw 1+ INT in 67% of his 46 losses. In playoffs, he threw a pick in 5 of his 7 playoff losses.

Using Dak’s conditional splits (INT in ~67.6% of losses; 250+ yards in 52% of wins) and three baselines (ESPN, raw market, vig-free), Eagles ML + Dak INT (−120) lands ~46–54% win chance (≈ −$15 to −$0.40 EV per $100), while Cowboys ML + Dak 250+ (+525) lands ~10–16% (≈ −$36 to +$1.7 EV). Market-fair numbers lean −EV on both; only the ESPN case nudges the DAL parlay slightly +EV.

ddittie · 09-03-25, 06:36 AM

Dak threw for 250+ yards in 60% in games (29 of 48) he won & the opponent had 17 pts or more.

So my final analysis here is the most likely outcome is Eagles win, and Dak is forced to make throws and gets an INT. Whatever that bet is, I'll hedge half of that amount on the Dallas win + Dak to throw for 250+ yards, because they aren't running on Philly?

Can't wait for tomorrow either way!

stevenash · 09-03-25, 06:55 AM

A lot of thought went into your posts.
Well done.

Best of luck this season.

ddittie · 09-03-25, 02:00 PM

These are the only bets. Wanted some skin in the game on first game, and I have it.

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ddittie · 09-05-25, 07:33 PM

0-2 -$500

ddittie · 09-07-25, 10:42 AM

Got this bet in for today

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ddittie · 09-07-25, 09:35 PM

1-2 +$510.98

ddittie · 09-10-25, 06:22 PM

Commanders O15.5	(+120)
Packers O16.5
Bills O16.5
Cowboys O16.5
Eagles O16.5

Probably this weeks bet

ddittie · 09-10-25, 06:56 PM

Might also add:

	O16.5
Chiefs	(+418)
Colts
Broncos
Falcons
Bucs

ddittie · 09-11-25, 04:27 PM

Settled on
Bills, Cowboys, Bengals, Eagles, Packers O16.5
Commanders O15.5 6 pick parlay 1k to win 2513.57

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ddittie · 09-11-25, 09:04 PM

Took a gamble on Washington even though I had them out of my top 10 and looks like I’ll pay

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-12-25, 12:58 AM

Dittie, props to you on the challenge. When you hit the cool Mill, I'll be there to toast you with a glass of champagne. Good Luck!

ddittie · 09-12-25, 08:49 AM

Thx Chuck, looking forward to it!

Meanwhile, I think I may need a glass for that garbage time score from the Commanders. Kept my parlay alive, woohoo!

ddittie · 09-12-25, 08:54 AM

Here's the full slip, since previous upload had left some of to out.

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ddittie · 09-14-25, 05:57 PM

2-2 +$2024.55

ddittie · 09-15-25, 10:43 PM

The one I thought about adding would have hit too (+418).

Doh!! I even thought about putting them all in a parlay for +1000, but played it safe. This was the week for points, holy crap! Only two teams scored less than 17 pts going into the late monday night game.

ddittie · 09-17-25, 02:40 PM

Looking like these will be my plays:

Bet #1 $1,000
Bills O23.5	(+113)
Ravens O23.5
GB O19.5
Bet #2 $350
Chiefs O16.5	(+173)
Cowboys O16.5
Chargers O16.5
Seahawks O16.5
Falcons O16.5
Bucs O16.5
Bet #3 $400
Packers O16.5	(+154)
Eagles O16.5
Bucs O16.5
Chargers O15.5
Cowboys O16.5
Ravens O19.5
Bet #4 $250
ML Parlay
Bills -850	(+563) DK Odds
Eagles -185
Chargers -155
Ravens -225
Seahawks -410
Bucs -340

Drive up tomorrow. Will post tickets.

ddittie · 09-18-25, 07:21 AM

Driving up today to place bets, will post.

ddittie · 09-18-25, 12:06 PM

1240 to win 3500

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ddittie · 09-18-25, 12:07 PM

okay, so bets this week.
first one I took a fun little gamble: 16 pick parlay $100 to win $1863.53
GB, TB, ATL, MIN, PIT, SEA, LAC, KC, DET, PHI all O16.5 Pts
IND O14.5
MIA O13.5
BUF & BAL O20.5
DAL O19.5 LAR O12.5

6 Pick ML Parlay $100 to win 825.27
BUF, TB, LAC, DAL, KC, BAL

and my main bet is a 6 pick parlay, $1240.04 to win $3518.85:
BUF & BAL O22.5
TB, DAL, SEA, ATL O16.5

Let’s go!!

ddittie · 09-18-25, 01:31 PM

On that 16 pick, 14 of the 16 should hit almost everytime

ddittie · 09-21-25, 02:36 PM

2-4 +$684.51

wont see Atlanta on my ticket. Made a mistake putting them on. I had a bias towards Penix Jr. Wanted him to succeed and I’m over it. He’s not cut out to be great in the NFL.

ddittie · 09-21-25, 06:34 PM

2-5 +584.51

ddittie · 09-22-25, 06:37 PM

Ravens O23.5, Henry Anytime TD, Henry O80+ Rushing, Lamar O180 Passing
$850 to pay $2,499.

The Numbers

Derrick Henry: 80+ rush yds in 15 of last 21 (71%), TD in 15 of last 21 (71%)
Lamar Jackson: 180+ pass yds in 17 of last 21 (81%)
Ravens offense: 24+ points in 17 of last 21 (81%)

All four together: 7 of 21 games (33%).

Books at +194 imply ~34%.
My data says ~33%. So the line is priced right at fair value.

To put streaks in perspective:

In any 2-game stretch, odds of a complete miss are 45%, while odds of at least one hit are 55%.
Over 3 straight games, complete miss is 30%; at least one hit is 70%.
Over 4 straight games, complete miss is 20%; at least one hit is 80%.

One loss doesn’t make the next one “due” — but it does show how often streaks come and go.

The Game Script

Henry: I’m expecting Baltimore to lean on him early against the Lions defense. That sets up his 80+ yards and TD.
Lamar: Lamar hits 180+ in most games, even with Henry getting 80+, they will need a balanced passing game to get him there.
Ravens scoring: With both weapons rolling, 24+ points becomes the natural outcome of that script.

Why This Parlay Fits

Instead of betting each prop standalone, this parlay ties the story of the game together:

Henry wears them down → red-zone TD.
Defense adjusts → Lamar hits 180+.
Both pieces clicking → Ravens reach 24+.

That’s why I’m running it as a 4-leg — the stats back it up, and the script ties it all together.

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ddittie · 09-22-25, 10:22 PM

I'd call that a bad beat. Henry was doing well in the first half, over 40 yards on 8 carriers and they turn around and give him 4 total carries in the second half. When they needed a long sustained drive to go down the field and tie it, they drop back and pass every down and abandon the run. Play calling was pretty terrible all night for the Ravens.

I didn't think the Lions would run the ball so well. I underestimated them and overestimated the Ravens. Ravens have so much talent but just can't get those guys to show up every week.

2-6 -$265.49

ddittie · 09-26-25, 08:08 PM

Chargers O16.5
Bills O23.5
Ravens O16.5
Packers & Broncos O19.5

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ddittie · 09-27-25, 04:15 PM

Okay so two bets this week:

$1,000 +297 > $3,977.05
Lions, Rams, 49ers, Chiefs O19.5
Commanders O16.5

$1,000 +140 > $2,402.73
Chargers & Ravens O16.5
Packers & Broncos O19.5
Bills O23.5

ddittie · 09-28-25, 10:23 PM

3-6 +$2,711.56

ddittie · 09-29-25, 09:04 PM

4-6 +$4,114.29

br: $11,114.29

ddittie · 09-30-25, 12:31 PM

Increasing our target from 11.4 to 17.5k

Year 1 — Target: $17,500

Bet size: $1,000-$1,250

Year 2 — Target: $43,750

Bet size: $1,250-$2,500

ddittie · 10-02-25, 05:48 PM

Cowboys O16.5 -535

Eagles O16.5 -440

Texans O13.5 -395

Panthers O13.5 -520

Dolphins O13.5 -650

These parlayed were +138 at time of bet. $1,000 to pay $2,389.51

As well as:

Eagles O16.5

Broncos O12.5

Bucs O13.5

Seahawks O16.5

Chargers O16.5

Bills O19.5

Chiefs O15.5

+220 at time of bet. $729.78 to pay $2,339.24

I have 2 $200 bonus bets from referrals on this same bet to pay $441.08 each, as well as a 3 leg parlay added to this using my 100% Parlay Boost ticket that adds the following legs:
Rams ML
Rams U30.5
Puka 100+ Receiving yards
+2685 odds
This is $150 to pay $4,177.50

We will not count bonus bets ($400) towards a hit to bankroll if they lose, but will add winnings if they hit. BOL!

ddittie · 10-02-25, 10:43 PM

Eagles O16.5

Broncos O12.5

Bucs O13.5

Seahawks O16.5

Chargers O16.5

Bills O19.5

Chiefs O15.5

Rams ML
Rams U30.5
Puka 100+ Receiving yards

Loss -$150

4-7 $3,964.29

Date	Stake	Odds	Payout	Net Result
9/3/2025	$385.00	-105	$751.66	-$385.00
9/3/2025	$115.00	(+345)	$511.75	-$115.00
9/7/2025	$1,000.00	(+101)	$2,010.98	$1,010.98
9/11/2025	$1,000.00	(+151)	$2,513.57	$1,513.57
9/18	$100.00	(+1763)	$1,863.53	-$100.00
9/18	$100.00	(+725)	$825.27	-$100.00
9/18	$1,240.04	(+183)	$3,518.85	-$1,240.04
9/22	$850.00	(+194)	$2,499.00	-$850.00
9/26	$1,000.00	(+297)	$3,977.05	$2,977.05
9/26	$1,000.00	(+140)	$2,402.73	$1,402.73
10/02	$1,000.00	(+138)	$2,389.51	$1,389.51
10/02	$729.78	(+220)	$2,339.24	-$729.78
10/02	$150.00	(+2685)	$4,177.50	-$150.00

Overall Record		Overall Profit
5-8		$4,624.02