NFL ATS and Total Push Frequencies

[LT Profits]

I did my best to reproduce Ganchrow's old Push Frequency Tables. Let me know if something looks out of whack.

Spr	No.   	St Err	Freq
0	699  	0.00%	0.00%
1	2,213	0.33%	2.44%
2	2,703	0.27%	2.07%
3	2,954	0.54%	9.38%
4	3,019	0.32%	3.28%
5	3,207	0.22%	1.59%
6	2,160	0.39%	3.38%
7	1,918	0.51%	5.16%
8	1,845	0.33%	2.06%
9	1,447	0.27%	1.04%
10	917  	0.71%	4.80%
11	793  	0.54%	2.40%
12	610  	0.33%	0.66%
13	397  	0.66%	1.76%
14	311  	1.18%	4.50%
15	258  	0.77%	1.55%
16	146  	1.35%	2.74%
17	84    	2.58%	5.95%
18	57    	1.74%	1.75%

Tot	No.   	St Err	Freq
29	22    	0.00%	0.00%
30	64    	3.03%	6.25%
31	145  	0.97%	1.38%
32	334  	0.52%	0.90%
33	565  	0.80%	3.72%
34	860  	0.57%	2.91%
35	1,327	0.37%	1.88%
36	1,766	0.33%	1.93%
37	1,921	0.48%	4.58%
38	2,113	0.35%	2.70%
39	2,190	0.26%	1.51%
40	2,046	0.33%	2.35%
41	1,978	0.43%	3.89%
42	1,957	0.27%	1.43%
43	1,814	0.38%	2.65%
44	1,532	0.45%	3.13%
45	1,312	0.51%	3.58%
46	1,086	0.42%	1.93%
47	757  	0.73%	4.23%
48	548  	0.67%	2.55%
49	366  	0.61%	1.37%
50	223  	1.25%	3.59%
51	137  	1.44%	2.92%

• All NFL regular season final scores and closing points spreads (from Covers) from the 1985/86 season through the 2007/08 season were analyzed (5,647 games in total) for various favorite margins of victory.

• The push frequency for a given point spread was determined by the percentage of games with a closing spread within 2 points of the spread in question ending with a favorite margin of victory equal to that spread. For example, the push frequency of a spread of 3 was determined from all games with a closing spread between 1 and 5.

• This is based on Stanford Wong's methodology as described in Sharp Sports Betting

[morocca]

looks great