Eagles +2862 to win Super Bowl at Pinnacle

slacker00 · 01-08-10, 02:55 PM

Originally posted by yisman

Seems like pretty good value there, if you can bet it.

I think they should be like 15/1. The problem for them is since they're the #6, they automatically get the Saints if they beat Dallas. I'd rather face Minnesota.

Since they play 4 games rather than 3, to get to 15/1 you'd have to assume the'd be +100 for every game for that to be fair odds. Since we know they'll be on the road for every game, the odds will be a lot steeper than that, don't you think?

For example, Eagles are getting +175 this week. If we can figure that number for the other 3 weeks as well, true odds are closer to +5600. It's better to bet it week by week unless you think the Eagles will be favored in most of the remaining games, which seems very unlikely.

yisman · 01-08-10, 03:04 PM

yeah, that's the argument to never make these futures bets, which I've made in the past. You can usually do just as well if not better by betting ML each week and going all in the following week.

Also, your money is not tied up for the whole period, so if you decide to just take your winning after a round or two, you can.

When I made this thread, I was comparing the odds of various teams, so if you are going to make one of these pre-playoff "Who will win the SB?" bets, I think the Eagles would be my #1 choice.

slacker00 · 01-08-10, 03:15 PM

One of the tricky things is predicting what the ML odds will be in the games going forward, because it's tough to know which teams will advance round by round. But with a #6 seed, you know they'll be on the road no matter what, so that simplifies things a little bit.