Call me old-fashioned but I still find it slightly weird to be talking of 'week 17' of the regular season. This week's card is full of more devious traps than one of those sickly 'Saw' movies, with punters like me desperately trying to decipher clues to which teams are going to turn up and which are going to IM it in. ('Mailing it in' is so 1990's).
Hence, not many bets for me this week as I attempt to reverse a three-week losing spin which has been well-managed but still eaten up a lot of my previously excellent profits.
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
The Browns have started to look less pitiful as the season has worn on, and have quietly put together some decent showings in certain statistical areas. Their defense isn't bad at all, in fact. In addition, their weak passing game gets the opportunity to face a dreadful Jags' pass defense which is also expected to be without Mathis. There's no doubt Jacksonville boasts a better offense (and an under-rated one according to my prized secret numbers) but I like the home team's chances here on a frigid Sunday for Floridian failure.
Mystic Limey forsees: Jaguars 17 - 27 Browns
Cleveland -1.5 for 5 units
Philadelphia @ Dallas
I have Dallas's defense marked as over-rated according to my mysterious measures, but it's generally decent performance shows up a surprising weakness in the Cowboys offense putting points on the board. When your defense isn't giving up points cheaply, you should be getting the ball in spots that allow you to require a lot less than almost 18 yards per point.
In the end, I like the Eagles a lot. I believe their big-play mentality on both sides of the ball makes them a less-than-ideal opponent for Dallas, and I'm happy to take better than even odds for a division-clinching win here.
Mystic Limey forsees: Eagles 34 - 23 Cowboys
Philadelphia ML 2.4 for 5 units
New England @ Houston
Curious fact, these teams have both made exactly the same number of pass attempts this season. The Texans have a few more yards to show for it, but I suspect that's all they'll have to show for it come Sunday night. I believe the Patriots will be gunning for the win without compromise, and while you can legitimately wonder whether they have the pass defense to reduce Schaub to a shlub, New England has an offense that can ask more questions than that.
Mystic Limey forsees: Patriots 27 - 24 Texans
New England +7 for 4 units
New England ML 3.4 for 2 units
Enjoy the football, folks, only eleven more games after this weekend.... boooo
Hence, not many bets for me this week as I attempt to reverse a three-week losing spin which has been well-managed but still eaten up a lot of my previously excellent profits.
Jacksonville @ Cleveland
The Browns have started to look less pitiful as the season has worn on, and have quietly put together some decent showings in certain statistical areas. Their defense isn't bad at all, in fact. In addition, their weak passing game gets the opportunity to face a dreadful Jags' pass defense which is also expected to be without Mathis. There's no doubt Jacksonville boasts a better offense (and an under-rated one according to my prized secret numbers) but I like the home team's chances here on a frigid Sunday for Floridian failure.
Mystic Limey forsees: Jaguars 17 - 27 Browns
Cleveland -1.5 for 5 units
Philadelphia @ Dallas
I have Dallas's defense marked as over-rated according to my mysterious measures, but it's generally decent performance shows up a surprising weakness in the Cowboys offense putting points on the board. When your defense isn't giving up points cheaply, you should be getting the ball in spots that allow you to require a lot less than almost 18 yards per point.
In the end, I like the Eagles a lot. I believe their big-play mentality on both sides of the ball makes them a less-than-ideal opponent for Dallas, and I'm happy to take better than even odds for a division-clinching win here.
Mystic Limey forsees: Eagles 34 - 23 Cowboys
Philadelphia ML 2.4 for 5 units
New England @ Houston
Curious fact, these teams have both made exactly the same number of pass attempts this season. The Texans have a few more yards to show for it, but I suspect that's all they'll have to show for it come Sunday night. I believe the Patriots will be gunning for the win without compromise, and while you can legitimately wonder whether they have the pass defense to reduce Schaub to a shlub, New England has an offense that can ask more questions than that.
Mystic Limey forsees: Patriots 27 - 24 Texans
New England +7 for 4 units
New England ML 3.4 for 2 units
Enjoy the football, folks, only eleven more games after this weekend.... boooo