AFL Playoffs - Utah at LA

Willie Bee · 07-02-07, 09:36 AM

Bet Utah +4½ at Los Angeles

Game Time: 07/02/2007 10:00 PM
By: Scott Rickenbach | playbook.com

With the death of teammate Justin Skaggs as motivation, the Blaze will beat the Avengers outright tonight. Bet Utah and the points in Los Angeles this evening in the AFL Playoffs.

After opening up this line at just a field goal it's been driven up to a 4½.5 as of Monday morning. The Los Angeles money has poured in and that's fine by us because we see the Utah Blaze winning this one outright. But we'll gladly grab the extra points here! Utah comes into this game with a couple of key advantages.

Before we get into those it is also noteworthy that even though the Blaze struggled late in the season so did Colorado. All the Crush did Saturday was go into Kansas City as a 6-point dog and walk out as a winner by a full touchdown! The fact is that the playoffs are simply a brand new season and the regular season streaks don't carry the same weight.

Even though Utah suffered a late season five-game losing streak, they are in fantastic shape coming into this one. That's because they got a much-needed late season bye and then came out and knocked off the Avengers in the final week of the season. Of course Los Angeles will be looking for revenge here but Utah has had their number. The Blaze have won four straight games over the Avengers and they intercepted six passes in the most recent victory. That does a world of good for the confidence of the much-maligned Utah defense while also dealing the Avengers and QB Sonny Cumbie a major blow to their own confidence. As Utah Blaze defensive coordinator Hunkie Cooper properly stated, a lot of stats in the AFL are not very helpful simply because it is the AFL! The quality of play of a unit must be based more on what is seen on the field than just the black and white yardage numbers on paper because the offensive performances are so explosive in this league. That is why the Blaze defense is much better than their full season numbers would indicate. They have played much better to close out the season.

Utah is as healthy and rested as they have been all season. Their win over the Avengers in their final regular season game has been their only game in the last 23 days. The Blaze are so healthy that the coaches have actually struggled this past week about who to bring off the injured list and who to play in this playoff game. Indeed, it's a good problem to have. Receiver Aaron Boone is ready to play, and might replace Huey Whittaker in tonight's starting lineup. Defensive back Clarence Lawson is eligible to come off the injured list, but likely will not. That's because J'Sharlon Jones, Leroy Smith and Jacoby Shepherd have played so well the last few games. The Blaze also got back Orshawante Bryant last week.

Utah is also using the untimely passing of receiver and linebacker Justin Skaggs to brain cancer as additional motivation for a strong playoff performance. Skaggs' death was a heartbreaking loss to the team with just a game remaining in the regular season.

The Blaze rallied in their first game without Skaggs to defeat Los Angeles. We feel they will do the same tonight. They are certainly the more explosive offense in this matchup. As a result, they can get up early in this game and, by doing so, they will take the crowd out of the game and also force the tempo into a higher scoring matchup which is what they prefer. With Utah's defense playing more consistent they can get a few stops and/or turnovers again against LA.

Last, but certainly not least, we like the experience of Blaze QB Joe Germaine over the Avengers' Sonny Cumbie. Play Utah plus the points as a regular selection.

Free Pick: Blaze +4½

Junkyard Dog · 07-02-07, 03:02 PM

I like Utah here as well

Checkerboard · 07-02-07, 10:56 PM

wow, L.A. really socking it to 'em. Still one and a half quarters to go though and it is arena football . . .