pats + 8 for me get it early

Dexter · 12-29-09, 12:49 PM

does the 3 or 4 seed really matter? still a home game for ne. i would not be surprised to see ne rest its players come 2nd half. look at what the line is doing. im on the texans...

Pats get Monday off; Will starters rest Sunday?

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/news/story?id=4777072

The Patriots next game is Sunday's regular-season finale against the Texans, and Bill Belichick isn't saying how much his starters will play.

Hilljacademics · 12-29-09, 01:13 PM

I mentioned in a different thread that if this line opened HOU -3 or -4, I'd have stayed away. I took the opener of NE +7 for a good-sized play and stand by my play. I feel though that the starters won't see action in the 2nd half, but my theory is NE will do enough in the first half that HOU can't cover the number for the game. Knowing HOU does not play a full 60 minutes in ANY kind of game, meaningful or not, I feel good about NE.

SRBI · 12-29-09, 01:20 PM

NE getting 8 points here is a must-take.

nick2060 · 12-29-09, 02:02 PM

New England has some value, it's still a pass for me because the uncertainty of how long the starters are going to play, and frankly, they've played pretty piss poor on the road, boasting a 2-5 record so far.

They lost to some good teams on the road, but at the same time they've only beaten Tampa and Buffalo in road games. This might also be worth a read, and easily makes this game a pass in my opinion:

Page not found | Boston.com

http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2009/12/29/rest_for_his_patriots_belichick_needs_to_sleep_on_it/?rss_id=Boston.com+--+New+England+Patriots+news

Hilljacademics · 12-29-09, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by nick2060

New England has some value, it's still a pass for me because the uncertainty of how long the starters are going to play, and frankly, they've played pretty piss poor on the road, boasting a 2-5 record so far.

They lost to some good teams on the road, but at the same time they've only beaten Tampa and Buffalo in road games. This might also be worth a read, and easily makes this game a pass in my opinion:

http://www.boston.com/sports/footbal...+Patriots+news

Thanks for the article.

NYSportsGuy210 · 12-29-09, 04:55 PM

Per Rotoworld.com:

"Coach Bill Belichick suggested Tuesday that the Patriots will not be resting healthy starters against the Texans this week.
"That's not really something we've done, and in all honesty I wouldn't even anticipate doing it," Belichick said. The Pats under Belichick have been loathe to mess with potential playoff implications around the league, and the Texans remain in the Wild Card hunt."

Source: Boston Herald

Pats +7 or +8 is a STEAL right now!!

slacker00 · 12-29-09, 05:00 PM

You guys must like Brian Hoyer at QB. I hope he's better than Curtis Painter. lmao

THE PROFIT · 12-29-09, 05:19 PM

I don't see Texans winning by more than a TD against 2nd string, but I don't think they'll see much second if any. Some places have NE+9 right now. They could go to sleep & cover that

slacker00 · 12-29-09, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

I don't see Texans winning by more than a TD against 2nd string, but I don't think they'll see much second if any. Some places have NE+9 right now. They could go to sleep & cover that

Brian Hoyer?!

JMF2479 · 12-29-09, 11:56 PM

agreed on pats

balman · 12-30-09, 01:15 AM

Originally posted by SRBI

NE getting 8 points here is a must-take.

this is the best line you will ever get on PATS ... -8 against Houston take the points and the money

osho1226 · 12-30-09, 01:41 AM

Why do you think the line is so great? Had it been a 'real' game, the spread would have been the exact opposite. You have no idea what the Pats will do in terms of resting their starters. This is just like the Jets-Indy game last week. If they pull their starters and don't come to play, you are left holding a bad bet. Unless you can get into Bill Bellichek's head, stay away from this game! Please don't tell me that Patriots always play to win - they did that when they were going for the perfect season. Seeding between 3 & 4 isn't really that big of a deal as the line maker is acknowledging with this line. Then again, the Pats may actually think it is important. Too many variables in this one and no discernible advantage. Gun to my head, I would pick Houston under the assumption that they will give it their all against New England's second stringers.

Hilljacademics · 12-30-09, 03:49 AM

Originally posted by osho1226

Why do you think the line is so great? Had it been a 'real' game, the spread would have been the exact opposite. You have no idea what the Pats will do in terms of resting their starters. This is just like the Jets-Indy game last week. If they pull their starters and don't come to play, you are left holding a bad bet. Unless you can get into Bill Bellichek's head, stay away from this game! Please don't tell me that Patriots always play to win - they did that when they were going for the perfect season. Seeding between 3 & 4 isn't really that big of a deal as the line maker is acknowledging with this line. Then again, the Pats may actually think it is important. Too many variables in this one and no discernible advantage. Gun to my head, I would pick Houston under the assumption that they will give it their all against New England's second stringers.

I'm not saying you're wrong in what you say. Vegas does know however, especially in Week 17, that the 'public' will almost ALWAYS bet into a playoff scenario: "The Jets NEED to win to get in", etc. What a team NEEDS vs. what actually OCCURS on the field are seldomly the same thing. IMO, that's how this line went from HOU -7 to -8 in the first place.

Another example is WASH/SD. Using Bookmaker as an example, the line opened @ SD -8. Here came all the Redskin money. In a span of 3.5 hours, it was down to SD -3.....why? It may very well be a dress rehearsal for the Chargers on Sunday, but what is Washington's motivation? They just took two drubbings at home to division opponents, are out of the playoff picture and know the coaching staff won't be there next season. I'm not on this game, but the Chargers depth alone should carry them through if starters get rested. The line is now SD -4.

I could easily be wrong after this game plays out, but I think NE + 7 is a gift. If Houston does win, I'm thinking 24-21 or 24-20.

slacker00 · 12-30-09, 06:26 AM

If you're playing Houston, definitely use them in every teaser that you're playing. If you like NE to cover, consider a middle as well.

Hilljacademics · 12-30-09, 07:33 AM

From Bill Belichick's conference call yesterday on http://www.patriots.com :

Q: Have you had any time to think about what you are going to do on Sunday against Houston? Whether you are going to play or rest your starters?

BB: No, that's not really something that we've done and in all honesty I wouldn't even anticipate doing it. Having that discussion right now, what's going to happen now is we're going to go through the game plan, players are going to come in tomorrow and everybody's going to get ready to play. And that's how we're going to approach it. Whoever plays, plays. Whoever doesn't play, doesn't play. But it's like that every week. We could go out there and on the first play of the game something could happen and somebody else could be in there. Everybody needs to be ready to go all the time.

DOMINATER · 12-30-09, 07:53 AM

pats fan butIgot hurt all year at 7 1/2 and 8 it seems they are up by 11 12 13 14 15 and they let that backdoor t.d. come waltzing and of course they could care less as long as they win.