i am new to the site and just found this page. i actually had SD tonight (first play officially tracked elsewhere), so i will post these others for SUN. for the season, my simulator is 17-1, though that has not been officiall tracked ...
OAK @ CLE (-3)...
no laughing, please. i know it's a pillowfight, but given two hot girls, even a pillowfight can be fun. wait, these are NOT hot girls.
Ratings:
conservative: OAK -1
varable: CLE -2
actual: OAK -3
Efficiency:
OAK - 19
CLE - 19
Geometric Mean:
OAK - 22
CLE - 21
Adj Geo Mean:
OAK - 19
CLE - 19
Off/Def Predictor:
OAK - 5
CLE - 5
Adj Off/ Def Predictor:
OAK - 19
CLE - 19
Score Predictor
OAK - 20
CLE - 17
i know the OFF/DEF predictor says 5-5 and that score is almost possible. the OFF/DEF predictor rates a team based on their offensive and defensive performances thus far in the season -- the closeness of the two numbers is more important than the values.
quinn is out and OAK has been playing well of late. as you can see from my predictions, this one screams OT, so i will advise buying it to 3.5 in case of free-football.
****PLAY: OAK +3.5 (-130), risking 21.6% bankroll****
BAL @ PIT (-2.5)
this also feels like a trap, but the other way -- it seems like vegas is begging you to take PIT. loser of this game might (especially if it's PIT) be out of the playoffs.
Ratings:
conservative: BAL -2.5
variable: BAL -5
actual: BAL -1
Efficiency:
BAL - 21
PIT - 20
Geometric Mean:
BAL - 23
PIT - 20
Adj Geo Mean:
BAL - 22
PIT - 19
Off/Def Predictor:
BAL - 24
PIT - 24
Adj Off/ Def Predictor:
BAL - 20
PIT - 21
Score Predictor
BAL - 24
PIT - 20
again, based on my simulators, this one should be close. if this line stays at 2.5, i like buying it up to 3 to protect yourself from an overtime field goal for the bad guys.
OAK @ CLE (-3)...
no laughing, please. i know it's a pillowfight, but given two hot girls, even a pillowfight can be fun. wait, these are NOT hot girls.
Ratings:
conservative: OAK -1
varable: CLE -2
actual: OAK -3
Efficiency:
OAK - 19
CLE - 19
Geometric Mean:
OAK - 22
CLE - 21
Adj Geo Mean:
OAK - 19
CLE - 19
Off/Def Predictor:
OAK - 5
CLE - 5
Adj Off/ Def Predictor:
OAK - 19
CLE - 19
Score Predictor
OAK - 20
CLE - 17
i know the OFF/DEF predictor says 5-5 and that score is almost possible. the OFF/DEF predictor rates a team based on their offensive and defensive performances thus far in the season -- the closeness of the two numbers is more important than the values.
quinn is out and OAK has been playing well of late. as you can see from my predictions, this one screams OT, so i will advise buying it to 3.5 in case of free-football.
****PLAY: OAK +3.5 (-130), risking 21.6% bankroll****
BAL @ PIT (-2.5)
this also feels like a trap, but the other way -- it seems like vegas is begging you to take PIT. loser of this game might (especially if it's PIT) be out of the playoffs.
Ratings:
conservative: BAL -2.5
variable: BAL -5
actual: BAL -1
Efficiency:
BAL - 21
PIT - 20
Geometric Mean:
BAL - 23
PIT - 20
Adj Geo Mean:
BAL - 22
PIT - 19
Off/Def Predictor:
BAL - 24
PIT - 24
Adj Off/ Def Predictor:
BAL - 20
PIT - 21
Score Predictor
BAL - 24
PIT - 20
again, based on my simulators, this one should be close. if this line stays at 2.5, i like buying it up to 3 to protect yourself from an overtime field goal for the bad guys.
