Plays so Sharp They'll Cut You (41-20-1 ATS YTD)

[kroyrunner89]

I'll use this thread for my week 15 picks, leading off with this tonight:

• Dallas Cowboys +9

Although people have been making a big deal about the Cowboys' usual December Swoon and all the problems they are having, I think the Cowboys have a legitimate shot in this game. The Saints have been very banged up on defense in past weeks, and this week doesn't look to be much better with a number of players questionable and Jabari Greer already ruled out. Teams have been moving the ball no problem against them lately, and although the Cowboys have struggled converting their yardage into points I think that this is the week where they finally start finding the end zone a bit more. I like the Cowboys to attack on the ground in this one, as Felix Jones and Marion Barber shouldn't have much trouble establishing a running game, and I think that the threat of these two should open up the passing game for Romo as well. Dallas should put some solid drives together to at least keep themselves in the game, perhaps with a chance to win it at the end. So, in this spot, I'll take the Cowboys and hope they can keep it within one score.

Good luck to everyone tonight!

[LLXC]

On the cowboys as well, GL.

[ijenpo]

Like this play. BOL

[kroyrunner89]

Some further injury information that everyone should be aware of tonight:
Shockey - OUT
Ellis - OUT
Ware - ACTIVE

Those are the three big ones, I believe all of this favors the Cowboys even more, hope it works out that way!

[MJT1212]

Saints Cover in a BLOWOUT

[MexicanStallion]

I have Cowboys as well. I hope we cash Kroy

[n1co35]

nice title kroy i guess ur gonna keep postin in this thread now.
BOL lookin good so far.

[Cat Wine]

Wow, nice record.

[goldseeker]

[Busterflywheel]

Nice call....****in hate Tony Homo

[Dr.Gonzo]

You're a machine kroy.

I was on at the ML and the spread

[kroyrunner89]

Thanks guys! I love the Saints, so it hurts to see them lose outright like that, but I'll happily take the win on the bet! I'll have my Sunday plays up in a bit!

[podunk]

[kidcd]

Nice hit congrats on the season so far

[kroyrunner89]

• Texans -14
• Texans/Rams UNDER 43.5

This game is pretty clear cut in my mind. The Houston defense has been playing much better lately, and the Rams offense has been terrible all year. Now that the team has been hit with Swine Flu, and won't have Steven Jackson in the game to aid them, their offense is really going to struggle moving the ball. Kyle Boller is questionable to play, however given his lack of practicing this week I'd be surprised to see him out there, leaving the Rams with their 3rd string QB yet again. The Rams' defense will struggle keeping the Texans' offense in check, and the only way I see this total going over is if the Texans push it over with a mammoth point total. Worst case scenario we split these picks and eat a little juice, but I think there's a great chance we win them both with the Texans winning with a score in the neighborhood of 31-10.

• Browns +2
• Browns/Chiefs UNDER 37

This is a pretty unique game in the sense that both teams are bottom 8 in the league in rushing and passing yards/attempt on both offense and defense! It's pretty abysmal to be so bad in those phases of the game on both sides of the field. However, lately the Browns have shown signs of righting the ship, as they upset the Steelers on Thursday night, and haven't turned the ball over in their last four games. The Chiefs meanwhile, have continued to struggle. In their last four games, their defense has been as bad as ever, and they've turned the ball over 7 times. The only thing they've done well lately is run the ball with Charles, and very quietly the Browns rushing defense has been a top 8 unit in the league over their last five games. I expect neither team to light up the scoreboard, but for the Browns to have more scoring opportunities as they'll take better care of the ball and give Cribbs more opportunities to make plays. Browns should win this game something like 16-10.

• Tennessee Titans -5

It looks like Vince Young will be playing in this one, which I love considering that the Titans' passing offense is much better under him and the Dolphins have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Like every other team, they'll have to dedicate a lot of energy into figuring out how to contain Chris Johnson, which will hopefully leave the passing game wide open for Young. The Titans are still throwing the ball great, and the speedier backs have been the type that give the Dolphins trouble. As I've said in the past, the Titans' biggest weakness has been their rushing defense. However, lately the Dolphins have abandoned the wildcat formation, and in their last three games they've run for under 4 yards/carry. I think the Titans can have their way on offense in this one, and if the Dolphins find themselves forced into throwing the ball I think we'll see some turnovers as well. Titans should cruise to a win by two scores.

[Checkerboard]

thanks for the winner kroy, good stuff!

[2daBank]

love the hou play but id be careful with the under if hou wants to run score up like ten last week they get to 43 by them selves id guess more like 35 but rams good for 1 meaningless td making this number a real close call....good luck from your source for rams winners all year.......

[2daBank]

like ten as well

[kroyrunner89]

Haha yeah that is my one concern 2daBank, however I'm banking on the Rams defense keeping it slightly under control. Hopefully it works out!

[Dark Horse]

Good stuff. Concise and to the point.

[NYSportsGuy210]

You Seem Knowledgable

I also like the HOU (-14) play. That Keith Knull at QB is atrocious. Andre Johnson and Ryan Moats should eat him up alive along with the rookie RB Arian Foster for Texas.

Good call on (-14) HOU over Rams...I'll be on it!


Also I Like:

a) Pats (-7) @ Buffalo: This may seem like a shakey play at first but judging how Nee Englad, Brady and Bilicheck can't be happy being at only 8-5 this late in the year I see them finishing 2009 running the table and going 11-5 heading into post season. Moss should have a beast of a game too....Pats win 27-13.

b) Eagles (-8) vs. 49ers: I still don't think the 49ers team can hang with the elites despite them beating Arizona last week (they always play well against the Cardinals year in and year out) and with McNabb and company needing to keep their NFC east playoff lead over Dallas alive expect them to come out and
outplay the SF 49ers in all facets of the game. Final score.....Eagles win 31-10


c) NBA Pick- Toronto Raptors (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Hornets: Hornets are 2-10 on the road this year traveling to Toronto. Raptor's big men will prove to be too much on the inside for the soft Hornets interior defense. Raptors already beat Hornets by 17 points AT NEW ORLEANS earlier this year too. They play well and cohesive at home and should cover and beat New Orleans by more than 2 points.

[kroyrunner89]

Just a quick note on both the Houston plays, apparently the reports I saw earlier about Jackson being out for tomorrow aren't true, he's now a game time decision. Just something to consider when you guys are placing bets, obviously with him on the field these plays look a bit more shaky...

[2daBank]

Just a quick note on both the Houston plays, apparently the reports I saw earlier about Jackson being out for tomorrow aren't true, he's now a game time decision. Just something to consider when you guys are placing bets, obviously with him on the field these plays look a bit more shaky...

actually my friend jackson a go is absolutely great for your under the 1 thing you can count on with rams is jackson jackso jackson eating clock and with some luck after a long drive fumble the ball away. i just got on board with your under and sure with him a go less of a blowout more like 31-6

[MexicanStallion]

I hate to say it, but I will probably be against you on Cle and Hou spreads. Best of luck though

[2daBank]

and that enough of a cushion if rams somehow manage a td and make it 10

[jnickell100]

kroy..you gonna pot any late games or all just early?

[rolltide10]

Kroy... If you don't mind give your thoughts on packers + 2. They have been hot as of late I like this game close no more than a field goal I had it capped pack -3. What is your take on it... Just wondering if you had disected it at all. Tailing the Houston play... Good call

[kroyrunner89]

I still don't completely trust GB on the road, so I'm staying away. These are two Jekyll and Hyde teams, so I'm not really sure which will show up on each side...