Wal's MNF

[wal66]

Haven't been posting much NFL and with good reason, I suck. I did win yesterday in the Best Bets thread with Dolphins ML but didn't post it for the NFL forum so it didn't get added to the record.

I have worked the numbers for tonights game top to bottom and backwards to forwards and no matter how I average the numbers it comes out to a 3 point win by te Cardinals and under 45.

Arizona is sitting there at -3.5. Buy the hook and play for the push or risk it and take the 49'ers +3.5?

I am teaser terible but if I am to play a side it has to be in teaser format. The total I am confortable with.


Play:

Arizona/San Francisco under 45*

2 Team 6.5 point Teaser

Arizona +3 undrer 51.5**

[PeePee]

Wal, not to "dis" your plays but they are against both of my personal rule on teaser. Not to cross the zero and playing under the total in teaser. Why?
The possibility of SF wins more than 3pts (4,7...) are high, that is if they do manage to win.... getting TOs = blowouts. That negate the advatage of teaser in which we already paid high juice and riskier.
There are so many "unknown" factors that can contribute to pts that we can not cap before the game: TOs TD, punt/KO TDs... etc. and they push the total out of wack. I have seen so many of those which killed any properly capped teaser.

Just a thought. .... BTW, I do like the Ari play which I played at -3.5

[wal66]

I knew I had seen Justin 7 talk about teasing and crossing zero. Truth is like I said everything about this game from what I have looked at suggest 3 is the mark. Now while Arizona may very well cover 3.5 I wanted to hedge against 20-17 type of game.

As for the total I didn't know there was a rule of thumb about totals and teasers. I personally like the under straight which is why I played it but in order to get a teaser in on this game I had to do something with the number.

Let's hope tonight you win and I can get away with breaking your rule just this once.

[PeePee]

lol...


No, the total was just my personal, not a rule of thumb as "crossing the 0". GL.

[SportNut]

Like the teaser good luck buddy..

[SportNut]

Small play on 9ers for me....cheering for Sf since I'm in Oakland....

[wal66]

San Francisco looking good with all the help Cardinal turnovers are giving. Still 17-14 or 21-20 and everyone wins.

[wal66]

Ok, so you never cross zero in a teaser.

[wal66]

Under was golden but obviously the teaser wasn't. Amazing how try as you might you can't figure on 7 turnovers when capping a game.