Week 14 Plays w/ writeups! 39-18 ATS YTD!
Once again we hit the ground running with a Thursday Night Football win, and this week with a lot on the table that I'm liking, we're looking to have a big weekend to make it a very profitable week. Here's what I'm liking this weekend:
So far this season, the Colts have been an offensive juggernaut. However, most of their production has come through the passing game as the rushing offense has struggled, and they have yet to face a team that is top 12 in the league in yards/pass attempt allowed. Denver certainly falls into this category, as they come into this contest ranked #2 in the NFL allowing 5.24 yards/pass attempt. Considering that Denver has the 7th best rushing defense as well, it's hard to believe that Addai will get going and be able to produce much on the ground for the Colts. The Colts will find ways to score as they usually do, however I feel that they may be settling for field goals more than touchdowns come Sunday, scoring in the neighborhood of 23 points.
On Denver's side of the ball, this year they've tended to disappear when facing good defenses. I think what's going to hurt them in this game is their lack of passing offense. This season they're throwing the ball for 6.13 yards/pass attempt, which is 17th in the NFL, slightly below average. The Colts have been the 8th best passing defense this season, leading me to believe that Denver will have some trouble airing it out. Denver likely knows this, which will lead them to turning their attack to the ground, as they have the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL. The Colts' rush defense is nothing special, ranking 15th in the NFL, so I feel like we could be seeing the kinds of drives out of Denver where they burn up a few minutes of clock and wind up punting. All in all, I'm not sure who comes out of this game covering the spread, but I'm confident that it stays a lower scoring affair, making the under the play.
Very quietly, the Bengals have been a top notch defensive unit, and in my opinion could be the best defense in the NFL. The Bengals rank 6th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 5th in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 2nd in defensive scoring efficiency. Although they're matched up against the Vikings, a team that has scored the 2nd most PPG in the NFL, I'm not too concerned. This is because of the soft schedule that the Vikings have played so far. Minnesota has played two teams above .500 so far this year, the Packers twice, both wins, and then the Cardinals, who put them to shame last Sunday Night. Other teams in the neighborhood of being good that they've played would be the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, two wins they had to fight hard for and a loss. In this game, I think Minnesota will face yet another test, and while I don't necessarily believe they'll lose outright, it will certainly be a close game. Despite the Bengals being a run heavy team, they've shown that they can throw the ball when they need to as they rank 16th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. Should they find themselves unable to move the ball on the ground, I think Palmer and Ochcocinco can put some points on the board. However, in the process, I think the Bengals will find themselves facing a lot of 3rd and longs, which will hurt their ability to keep drives together so that they don't score too many points to push this total over. I think this is a sloppy game by both offenses, and stays lower scoring than people expect, with the Bengals covering in a hard fought game.
After a very sloppy loss on the road last week against the Colts, the Titans return home to face the struggling Rams this week. St. Louis has a history of playing much worse on the road, and that history has held true so far this season as they've averaged about 9 ppg on the road. Take out their two shutout losses, and they've still only managed about 13.5 ppg. Against this Titans defense, you would expect the Rams to put some points on the board since they have Steven Jackson, and the Tennessee rush defense has been so terrible. However, I expect Tennessee to focus completely on shutting Jackson down, letting Boller beat them. Unfortunately for Boller, the Tennessee passing defense is an above average unit, and should be able to create a couple of turnovers against him.
On offense, the Titans should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. They moved the ball against a much better Indy defense last week, but were unable to convert their yardage into points on the scoreboard. With Chris Johnson going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I expect the points to come a bit easier. Not to mention, Tennessee's passing attack should be able to get the job done as well as the Rams have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Finally, combine that with the 4th worst scoring efficiency defense, and the pieces are all in place for a blowout win by the Titans. I'm slightly concerned about the health status of Young, but right now the signs point to him playing. Even if he doesn't, I think Kerry Collins will be able to get the job done as he's had time to work with the first string offense this week.
At first glance this play looks like suicide given how hot the Chargers have been lately, combined with how streaky the Cowboys are. However, I'm convinced that this is a game that Dallas will win fairly comfortably. For starters, I think that this is the game where San Diego's lack of a rushing attack catches up with them. The Chargers currently are last in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and if they become one dimensional against a team as good as the Cowboys that will certainly affect their offense. Also, despite being 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, the bulk of those numbers have either come from home games or against weak teams. In the Chargers' three true road tests, the Giants, Steelers, and Broncos, their passing offense has mustered only 5.78 yards per pass attempt, a far cry from their overall figure of 8.06.
The Cowboys' shot at winning this game will rely heavily on their rushing offense. They currently are the best rushing team in the NFL, and matched up against the 11th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I like their chances to keep the chains moving. If Dallas can put some long drives together, the Chargers likely will also struggle to get into a rhythm on offense. I think that Dallas will get the job done in this contest, playing a solid defensive game and putting some points on the board on offense. I think Dallas takes this by a touchdown.
That's all I've got for this week, good luck to everyone who decides to wager!
- Broncos/Colts UNDER 44
So far this season, the Colts have been an offensive juggernaut. However, most of their production has come through the passing game as the rushing offense has struggled, and they have yet to face a team that is top 12 in the league in yards/pass attempt allowed. Denver certainly falls into this category, as they come into this contest ranked #2 in the NFL allowing 5.24 yards/pass attempt. Considering that Denver has the 7th best rushing defense as well, it's hard to believe that Addai will get going and be able to produce much on the ground for the Colts. The Colts will find ways to score as they usually do, however I feel that they may be settling for field goals more than touchdowns come Sunday, scoring in the neighborhood of 23 points.
On Denver's side of the ball, this year they've tended to disappear when facing good defenses. I think what's going to hurt them in this game is their lack of passing offense. This season they're throwing the ball for 6.13 yards/pass attempt, which is 17th in the NFL, slightly below average. The Colts have been the 8th best passing defense this season, leading me to believe that Denver will have some trouble airing it out. Denver likely knows this, which will lead them to turning their attack to the ground, as they have the 10th best rushing offense in the NFL. The Colts' rush defense is nothing special, ranking 15th in the NFL, so I feel like we could be seeing the kinds of drives out of Denver where they burn up a few minutes of clock and wind up punting. All in all, I'm not sure who comes out of this game covering the spread, but I'm confident that it stays a lower scoring affair, making the under the play.
- Bengals +6.5
- Bengals/Vikings UNDER 43
Very quietly, the Bengals have been a top notch defensive unit, and in my opinion could be the best defense in the NFL. The Bengals rank 6th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 5th in yards per rush attempt allowed, and 2nd in defensive scoring efficiency. Although they're matched up against the Vikings, a team that has scored the 2nd most PPG in the NFL, I'm not too concerned. This is because of the soft schedule that the Vikings have played so far. Minnesota has played two teams above .500 so far this year, the Packers twice, both wins, and then the Cardinals, who put them to shame last Sunday Night. Other teams in the neighborhood of being good that they've played would be the 49ers, Steelers, and Ravens, two wins they had to fight hard for and a loss. In this game, I think Minnesota will face yet another test, and while I don't necessarily believe they'll lose outright, it will certainly be a close game. Despite the Bengals being a run heavy team, they've shown that they can throw the ball when they need to as they rank 16th in the NFL in yards/pass attempt. Should they find themselves unable to move the ball on the ground, I think Palmer and Ochcocinco can put some points on the board. However, in the process, I think the Bengals will find themselves facing a lot of 3rd and longs, which will hurt their ability to keep drives together so that they don't score too many points to push this total over. I think this is a sloppy game by both offenses, and stays lower scoring than people expect, with the Bengals covering in a hard fought game.
- Titans -13
After a very sloppy loss on the road last week against the Colts, the Titans return home to face the struggling Rams this week. St. Louis has a history of playing much worse on the road, and that history has held true so far this season as they've averaged about 9 ppg on the road. Take out their two shutout losses, and they've still only managed about 13.5 ppg. Against this Titans defense, you would expect the Rams to put some points on the board since they have Steven Jackson, and the Tennessee rush defense has been so terrible. However, I expect Tennessee to focus completely on shutting Jackson down, letting Boller beat them. Unfortunately for Boller, the Tennessee passing defense is an above average unit, and should be able to create a couple of turnovers against him.
On offense, the Titans should have no trouble moving the ball downfield. They moved the ball against a much better Indy defense last week, but were unable to convert their yardage into points on the scoreboard. With Chris Johnson going against the 6th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I expect the points to come a bit easier. Not to mention, Tennessee's passing attack should be able to get the job done as well as the Rams have the 8th worst passing defense in the NFL. Finally, combine that with the 4th worst scoring efficiency defense, and the pieces are all in place for a blowout win by the Titans. I'm slightly concerned about the health status of Young, but right now the signs point to him playing. Even if he doesn't, I think Kerry Collins will be able to get the job done as he's had time to work with the first string offense this week.
- Cowboys -3.5
At first glance this play looks like suicide given how hot the Chargers have been lately, combined with how streaky the Cowboys are. However, I'm convinced that this is a game that Dallas will win fairly comfortably. For starters, I think that this is the game where San Diego's lack of a rushing attack catches up with them. The Chargers currently are last in the NFL in yards per rush attempt, and if they become one dimensional against a team as good as the Cowboys that will certainly affect their offense. Also, despite being 2nd in the NFL in yards per pass attempt, the bulk of those numbers have either come from home games or against weak teams. In the Chargers' three true road tests, the Giants, Steelers, and Broncos, their passing offense has mustered only 5.78 yards per pass attempt, a far cry from their overall figure of 8.06.
The Cowboys' shot at winning this game will rely heavily on their rushing offense. They currently are the best rushing team in the NFL, and matched up against the 11th worst rushing defense in the NFL, I like their chances to keep the chains moving. If Dallas can put some long drives together, the Chargers likely will also struggle to get into a rhythm on offense. I think that Dallas will get the job done in this contest, playing a solid defensive game and putting some points on the board on offense. I think Dallas takes this by a touchdown.
That's all I've got for this week, good luck to everyone who decides to wager!
