Actually, two picks.
And, as is Tank tradition, I am even going to give a (brief) mathematical explanation for each. We like to justify our guesses with numbers in the think tank.
1st--Brownies to score 1st +170 (available most anywhere). Home doggies of +9 or more have historically scored 1st 39% of the time over 158 games I have on db, which would make them around +155 true value. Throw in the weather (hell, anything can happen in a blizzard) and you have what we fondly call an "ev+ bet".
2nd--Clev win first half, Pitt win game at +750 (Jazz group). Over these 158 games with the big home dogs, the dogs have won the first half/lost the game 27 times (17%). So +750 is more than "fair value", which would be closer to +490.
Will either of these picks win?
Probably not.
My picks mostly suck like everyone else's.
Have fun, enjoy the game!
And, as is Tank tradition, I am even going to give a (brief) mathematical explanation for each. We like to justify our guesses with numbers in the think tank.
1st--Brownies to score 1st +170 (available most anywhere). Home doggies of +9 or more have historically scored 1st 39% of the time over 158 games I have on db, which would make them around +155 true value. Throw in the weather (hell, anything can happen in a blizzard) and you have what we fondly call an "ev+ bet".
2nd--Clev win first half, Pitt win game at +750 (Jazz group). Over these 158 games with the big home dogs, the dogs have won the first half/lost the game 27 times (17%). So +750 is more than "fair value", which would be closer to +490.
Will either of these picks win?
Probably not.
My picks mostly suck like everyone else's.
Have fun, enjoy the game!