DENVER @ KANSAS CITY
NFL teams are rarely as bad (or as good) as we think, but Kansas City must be close. They rank badly in almost every facet of the game, and having their most dangerous receiver out, suspended at present, doesn't help. Meanwhile, Denver are likely bound for the playoffs and they need the win here pretty badly, with a nasty schedule following this weekend. That would be enough for me to bet the Broncos here, but what makes it a gold star opportunity is the Josh McDaniels versus Matt Cassell matchup. McDaniels was Cassell's QB coach and offensive co-ordinator at New England and should know exactly what buttons to push to ensure the the Chiefs' weak passing game goes absolutely nowhere on Sunday.
Mystic Limey forsees: DEN 27 - 9 KC
DENVER ML 1.42 for 12 units DENVER -5.5 for 8 units
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA
I really wanted to bet the Eagles in this spot, as I still think there is some value in opposing Atlanta. However, it's hard to decide whether Matt Ryan being out adds to that value or kills it. In the end, the fact that this game is sandwiched by crucial divisional games for Philly puts me off. However, I like the total here. I think the Eagles will put up points against a really poor Atlanta defense, but will be sloppy enough that this will stay close with scoring to the end.
Mystic Limey forsees: PHI 31 - 20 ATL
OVER 43.5 @ for 4 units
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON
i can't touch the spread in this game, it just looks about right. But Washington's doughty, legit defense mixed with their lousy scoring offense and then seasoned with just a sprinkle of Saints let-down from the big Patriots game... that's the recipe for an under-cake. The main danger here is the Redskins' defense finally quitting on the offense that is letting them down so badly.
Mystic Limey forsees: NO 31 - 10 WASH
UNDER 47.5 for 4 units
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO
This is actually quite a closely-matched game in many statistical categories, Which makes St Louis's likely-underrated status in my secret files very interesting indeed. Having said which, I already have a little buyer's remorse on this bet. Surely the Bears can't screw up another one? More significantly, they've faced a darned tough schedule this season and may not be half as bad as they look. But it's too late now, so "go go go Rams" - !
Mystic Limey forsees: STL 17 - 20 CHI
ST LOUIS +9.5 for 4 units
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA
I was suspecting Arizona of being an over-rated defense based on their yards-per-point, but closer examination reveals that they deserve genuine respect on the destructive side of the ball. In fact, they look a legit team in general, with the caveat that their schedule has been a little weak so far. Still, do I think they might well beat the Minnesota ice warriors, with desert advantage? Yes - so I'll gladly take the three and a half points.
Mystic Limey forsees: MINN 20 - 27 ARI
ARIZONA +3.5 for 4 units
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
Once again, I don't like the spread very much here. Miami certainly look capable of giving the Pats all kinds of trouble, but I find it tough to oppose New England in a game they really, really need. However, the total looks interesting. Oddly for a team that runs the ball fantasically and puts together lengthy drives, the Dolphins have gone over the total by an average of more than six points per game. That should correct itself, given that they have a very good defense to go with the run game. These two teams ran the ball 55 times between them in their earlier season meeting, which ended 24-17. I like the under.
Mystic Limey forsees: NE 20 - 16 MIA
UNDER 46 for 4 units
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY
I've felt all season that Baltimore were unlucky not to have a better record, but it's starting to look like they just lack that extra something to get over the winning line in games. They also have a defense that my confidential numbers suggest is over-rated. Meawhile, Green Bay's defense is becoming very legit-looking as the Dom Capers system gets firmly established. I find it hard not to like a Packers team that needs to keep winning, with home advantage.
Mystic Limey forsees: BAL 17 - 30 GB
GREEN BAY -3.5 for 4 units
NFL teams are rarely as bad (or as good) as we think, but Kansas City must be close. They rank badly in almost every facet of the game, and having their most dangerous receiver out, suspended at present, doesn't help. Meanwhile, Denver are likely bound for the playoffs and they need the win here pretty badly, with a nasty schedule following this weekend. That would be enough for me to bet the Broncos here, but what makes it a gold star opportunity is the Josh McDaniels versus Matt Cassell matchup. McDaniels was Cassell's QB coach and offensive co-ordinator at New England and should know exactly what buttons to push to ensure the the Chiefs' weak passing game goes absolutely nowhere on Sunday.
Mystic Limey forsees: DEN 27 - 9 KC
DENVER ML 1.42 for 12 units DENVER -5.5 for 8 units
PHILADELPHIA @ ATLANTA
I really wanted to bet the Eagles in this spot, as I still think there is some value in opposing Atlanta. However, it's hard to decide whether Matt Ryan being out adds to that value or kills it. In the end, the fact that this game is sandwiched by crucial divisional games for Philly puts me off. However, I like the total here. I think the Eagles will put up points against a really poor Atlanta defense, but will be sloppy enough that this will stay close with scoring to the end.
Mystic Limey forsees: PHI 31 - 20 ATL
OVER 43.5 @ for 4 units
NEW ORLEANS @ WASHINGTON
i can't touch the spread in this game, it just looks about right. But Washington's doughty, legit defense mixed with their lousy scoring offense and then seasoned with just a sprinkle of Saints let-down from the big Patriots game... that's the recipe for an under-cake. The main danger here is the Redskins' defense finally quitting on the offense that is letting them down so badly.
Mystic Limey forsees: NO 31 - 10 WASH
UNDER 47.5 for 4 units
ST LOUIS @ CHICAGO
This is actually quite a closely-matched game in many statistical categories, Which makes St Louis's likely-underrated status in my secret files very interesting indeed. Having said which, I already have a little buyer's remorse on this bet. Surely the Bears can't screw up another one? More significantly, they've faced a darned tough schedule this season and may not be half as bad as they look. But it's too late now, so "go go go Rams" - !
Mystic Limey forsees: STL 17 - 20 CHI
ST LOUIS +9.5 for 4 units
MINNESOTA @ ARIZONA
I was suspecting Arizona of being an over-rated defense based on their yards-per-point, but closer examination reveals that they deserve genuine respect on the destructive side of the ball. In fact, they look a legit team in general, with the caveat that their schedule has been a little weak so far. Still, do I think they might well beat the Minnesota ice warriors, with desert advantage? Yes - so I'll gladly take the three and a half points.
Mystic Limey forsees: MINN 20 - 27 ARI
ARIZONA +3.5 for 4 units
NEW ENGLAND @ MIAMI
Once again, I don't like the spread very much here. Miami certainly look capable of giving the Pats all kinds of trouble, but I find it tough to oppose New England in a game they really, really need. However, the total looks interesting. Oddly for a team that runs the ball fantasically and puts together lengthy drives, the Dolphins have gone over the total by an average of more than six points per game. That should correct itself, given that they have a very good defense to go with the run game. These two teams ran the ball 55 times between them in their earlier season meeting, which ended 24-17. I like the under.
Mystic Limey forsees: NE 20 - 16 MIA
UNDER 46 for 4 units
BALTIMORE @ GREEN BAY
I've felt all season that Baltimore were unlucky not to have a better record, but it's starting to look like they just lack that extra something to get over the winning line in games. They also have a defense that my confidential numbers suggest is over-rated. Meawhile, Green Bay's defense is becoming very legit-looking as the Dom Capers system gets firmly established. I find it hard not to like a Packers team that needs to keep winning, with home advantage.
Mystic Limey forsees: BAL 17 - 30 GB
GREEN BAY -3.5 for 4 units
(Inserting smileys cuz I know you love it).