New Comer's pre-sunday picks! opinions?!?

FadeCommonSense · 12-04-09, 05:18 PM

I recommend giving reasons/explanations.

Colts are a better team. I dont care about VY.
Panthers are a better team.
Cardinals are unpredictable = no bet for me.

Other than that. Not bad

B's Picks · 12-04-09, 06:50 PM

Dont make so many plays....Pick on eor two that you like a lot...

Im on San Fran all the way and got them at a PK. And I like MIN -3 A LOT...Im looking into NY/DAL but my early lean is NYG +2.5. All lines from bookmaker.com on friday evening

B1GER1C828 · 12-04-09, 06:55 PM

Originally posted by FadeCommonSense

I recommend giving reasons/explanations. Colts are a better team. I dont care about VY. Panthers are a better team. Cardinals are unpredictable = no bet for me. Other than that. Not bad

...if you follow this logic u'll be a losing player for sure

Colts have a speedy defense and will keep young in check, titans got the 31st pass defense, colts have 1st pass offense, colts win by 10+
bucs +6 is a great play. Delhomme has proven to be a top 5 worst qb in football and cant do anything but through INT's
If leinart doesnt play, minn roles...if warner plays, i still think minn covers, but -4 isnt nearly as safe as -3(opener).

2daBank · 12-04-09, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by B's Picks

Dont make so many plays....Pick on eor two that you like a lot...

Im on San Fran all the way and got them at a PK. And I like MIN -3 A LOT...Im looking into NY/DAL but my early lean is NYG +2.5. All lines from bookmaker.com on friday evening

why dont make so many plays

i here this alot and ive always been the opposite the more plays i make the better off i am. anytime i try and narrow my card down to much i almost always clip the wrong gms

so for me its almost always the right move to play between 7-9 gms and another 3-5 totals. sometimes i even try to make my unit size different and that usually bites me in the ass as well the only time i change is if i have a very bad or good early card as im a firm believer in the law of avg. so if i start bad i stack more on my late gms if i start hot a usually scale back a little. im sure this might not be for evey1 but has always served me pretty well

B1GER1C828 · 12-04-09, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by 2daBank

why dont make so many plays

i here this alot and ive always been the opposite the more plays i make the better off i am. anytime i try and narrow my card down to much i almost always clip the wrong gms

so for me its almost always the right move to play between 7-9 gms and another 3-5 totals. sometimes i even try to make my unit size different and that usually bites me in the ass as well the only time i change is if i have a very bad or good early card as im a firm believer in the law of avg. so if i start bad i stack more on my late gms if i start hot a usually scale back a little. im sure this might not be for evey1 but has always served me pretty well

becauses theres too much variance in betting to select 9-10 games. You will be a big loser long term following this. Betting is too hard to do without making senseless picks.

jnickell100 · 12-04-09, 07:55 PM

Originally posted by B1GER1C828

...if you follow this logic u'll be a losing player for sure

Colts have a speedy defense and will keep young in check, titans got the 31st pass defense, colts have 1st pass offense, colts win by 10+
bucs +6 is a great play. Delhomme has proven to be a top 5 worst qb in football and cant do anything but through INT's
If leinart doesnt play, minn roles...if warner plays, i still think minn covers, but -4 isnt nearly as safe as -3(opener).

Delhomme not playing this week. Also, in regards to the colts, they essentially have the division locked up and they might sit Peyton in the 2nd half or the 4th quarter. Colts have been playing well but Texans exposed them in the first half but made the adjustment later in the second half to win the game. Id also like to see how the titans pass D has been on their winning streak i guarantee it is not 31st.

B1GER1C828 · 12-04-09, 07:58 PM

Originally posted by jnickell100

Delhomme not playing this week. Also, in regards to the colts, they essentially have the division locked up and they might sit Peyton in the 2nd half or the 4th quarter. Colts have been playing well but Texans exposed them in the first half but made the adjustment later in the second half to win the game. Id also like to see how the titans pass D has been on their winning streak i guarantee it is not 31st.

No way they sit payton..thats ridiculous. texans have a completely different style of offense. Their pass defense might be better on the win streak, but they also havent played a colts caliber team. and delhomme not playing changes nothing. TB covers and probably outright wins.

jnickell100 · 12-04-09, 08:29 PM

I like the bucs regardless of delhomme so im with you there. I understand they have a completly different offense so does nearly every team in the nfl. Just sayin the titans are a divisonal opponent so its not like theyve never seen the colts before. Plus they are playing for much more. Colts have absolutely nothing to play for as theyve already locked a playoff spot up and titans are fighting for a playoff spot.

pokernut9999 · 12-04-09, 08:38 PM

Originally posted by tKL

TITANS +6.5 > COLTS like
BUCS +6 > PANTHERS like
LIONS +13 > BENGALS ??
CHARGER -13 > BROWNS like
COWBOYS -1 > GIANTS love
49ers +1 > SEAHAWKS like
VIKINGS -4 > CARDINALS love

opinions?

Welcome aboard and good luck my friend

brooks85 · 12-04-09, 09:22 PM

I dont think the lions will be any where close to covering. I see SD and CIN winning by blowouts. Cin -7 1h is a large play for me.

tKL · 12-05-09, 01:22 AM

thanks for all the responses but with detroit not covering....if you look at all the bengals games they never won by double digits against the spreads. this is why i hit so big on cleveland last week.

even though some of you are not VY fans, i still think that titans are going to take it cause like some of you said colts already have a playoff spot and would like to save up their players, also i think vince thinks this is the time to really prove that he deserves to be 6-0 as a starter, even though colts are undefeated they've been a little rocky despite the comeback on the texans last week.

But for those of you thinking im playing all of these, i'm really not. i'm just brain storming on what plays to keep for my card but if anything i'm going to be playing singles as well if my card goes well lol. like what i love to say "scary money make no money"

i really dont care much for the cardinals at this point only because they've always let me down. vikings on the other hand have a pretty good pass rush because of that monster jared allen and brett farve loves to clutch in the 4th quarter.

the only worry i have for the tampa and carolina game is that cadillac william is back but yet i still have condidence in them.

i really narrowed down the picks today and the picks that i am more than likely going to play on my card is titans +7 /// jags/texans under 46 1/2 /// 49ers +1 /// chargers -13

i'm sure that these will be my picks unless others change my mind otherwise. good luck to all!! feel free to leave any comments and criticisms.