Someone tell me how this isn't a lock?

[ClimbSomeRocks]

I want to put my lifesavings into a book and put everything on OVER 43 for the monday night game Ravens vs Packers. Am I missing something here?

Flacco and Rodgers are two of the most explosive QB's in the league. Both team's have piss poor pass defence. As long as both qb's play and there are under 10 sacks, I see this is a lock. Anyone have any reason to think otherwise?

[kp126]

the over seems like a good choice but I personally stopped betting my "lifesaving's" on games

Because i usually lose the ones that look too easy and win the ones that seem iffy...

this over will rely more on what grant and rice can do instead of what rodgers and flacco do because without the run game both defenses will be able to drop back in coverage more often than not...

[denn333]

Just do it. These chances are few and far between.

[tripp]

balt offense not all that great, packers def can step up. packers OL is still very poor and sacks can make it hard to score.

[Domestic]

Looks like a decent pick, be interesting to see how much the line moves.

[thebestthereis]

The line opened slightly higher, sharps took it lower; be careful.

[thebestthereis]

Weather will likely be a factor in GB too.

[Limey]

I want to put my lifesavings into a book and put everything on OVER 43 for the monday night game Ravens vs Packers. Am I missing something here?

Flacco and Rodgers are two of the most explosive QB's in the league. Both team's have piss poor pass defence. As long as both qb's play and there are under 10 sacks, I see this is a lock. Anyone have any reason to think otherwise?

It certainly looks like a decent 'over' shot on the surface. However, I'm not sure what makes you say both teams have "piss poor" pass defence. They are 8th and 14th in defensive passer rating.

[BrownTown]

Ummmmm Flaco is not that good ... just FYI. CERTAINLY not one of the most explosive QB's in the league ... there are 5 or 6 other QB's in line ahead of him.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

Ummmmm Flaco is not that good ... just FYI. CERTAINLY not one of the most explosive QB's in the league ... there are 5 or 6 other QB's in line ahead of him.

I think if he had another WR other than mason he'd be top 3. maybe i'm bias as the ravens are my team

[Serbone]

I hate over/unders, but;

Both defenses are pretty good.
Also, look at scores of last few Balt games, their "O" has flattened out.
Might be cold weather game, tough for receivers, etc.

[Dad]

This could be why the line is where it's at.

Mon
Dec 7


Few Snow Showers



29°
18°


30%




29°F

[Kool-Aid78]

Put the lock talk to bed. A lock is what the book hits you with when it gets tired of using the brass nozzle of a garden hose.

[quote=BrownTown;2667191]Ummmmm Flaco is not that good ... just FYI. CERTAINLY not one of the most explosive QB's in the league ... there are 5 or 6 other QB's in line ahead of him.]+ cold ass Lambeau + ray rice and ground control =

[Soj]

LOCK IT UP. thanks for the pic I'm unloading on it right now!

[jerseykingpin]

You gotta love these so called LOCKS hmmmmmmmmm and at the end of the game we find out that the other team had a lock smith and picked that so called LOCK

[Stringer Bell]

I don't know where you got the Ravens defense as being piss-poor but I do agree with you on the over, definitely not a lock but the over seems like a good play as long as the weather is 50 degrees and clear. Doesn't look to be the case here though. IDK we'll see how the weather develops throughout the week but I do believe the Pack is good to give up 20+ points and same with the Ravens D.. The Packers took a hugeeeeeee hit when Kampman and Al Harris went out for the season that's mostly why I like the over.

[MelubYou]

baltimore may not be able to score too much....i'd pick packers

[tbird509]

kampman hasnt did shit all year,when they changed to a 3-4 defense,it didnt work for him....but clay mathews jr is having a great rookie year...and yes with harris out thats a big loss,but gb has top 10 defense in the league and ravens d aint no joke either...flaco isnt even near the top 5 qb's..maybe in a couple years but we'll see

[2daBank]

i cant find 6tds in this gm plus a fg for the cover havnt looked real hard at it yet but if you truly feel that strongly about this over you may want to wait as i dont see it going up anytime soon

[2daBank]

gb's defense is why they are a legit playoff team. bal defense while not as good as it used to be is still a unit with a lot of talent and pride. a very important gm for both teams i cant see this being high scoring at all

[denn333]

Just do it and reap the rewards !!!!

[slacker00]

Wait until Sunday to see how the weather shapes up. The line isn't moving that much between now and then.

[BrownTown]

I think if he had another WR other than mason he'd be top 3. maybe i'm bias as the ravens are my team

And if my Aunt had a ball-sack, she'd be my Uncle.

[G's pks]

Hopefully another good MNF game.. GL G.

[feltball]

over on mnf is often a trap

[marabdl86]

Have you not seen the Ravens? they are a void of offense

[infamousbacardi]

Hey guys...I'm a season ticket holder of the Packers...and I'll be at this game Monday night...let me tell you one thing, my lady is pissed (she's going with me) because of the WEATHER WEATHER WEATHER...that's why this is at 43...you are talking about Lambeau field in December...it's cold...and, it's a night game, so it will be even colder than a normal Sunday game...this is w/out question the coldest game this season that either team will have played in...I think the books are banking on a lower scoring affair...
This might sound a littler "homerish" of me...and I don't think it's true...but the stats say my Packers have the No.1 ranked defense in the league....now, do they have the best defense!?! I don't think so...but stats says yes...
ALL OF THIS being considered however, Packer games have had a tendency to go OVER this year...perhaps this won't be much different...all I know is that my lady has been chirping in my ear about how cold it will be all week long...so be careful when you tip it...just make sure that it doesn't matter to you the weather...BOL everyone!!!

[jerseykingpin]

.but the stats say my Packers have the No.1 ranked defense in the league
Where do you get your stats at

[jerseykingpin]

Sporting new write up on the game

Silverstein & Mike Preston
For Sporting News

The Ravens are coming off a hard-fought victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and their playoff destiny may lie in a Monday night's game at Lambeau Field. After this week, the Ravens have a favorable schedule and would be in a good position to get a wild card spot if they can pull one out at Green Bay. The Ravens' three-headed rushing attack will face the league's No. 1 defense overall and fourth-ranked rush defense. Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins have been outstanding in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense and are the key to the run defense's success. This will be a big challenge because the Ravens' backfield is versatile. Capers might have to blitz less to keep the running game in check.
Ravens Keys For Success

1. Pressure the QB. The Packers have a weak offensive line, so the Ravens should be able to get to QB Aaron Rodgers. If they can't, then they can't beat Green Bay. Look for the Ravens to bring a lot of pressure, especially off the edges. ILB Ray Lewis will be a key to getting pressure because he has become the team's best blitzer, and the Ravens like to move him around the line of scrimmage.
2. Establish the run. It's the time of the season when the top teams want to improve their running game, and this is the perfect time for the Ravens, who will want to keep Rodgers off the field. But Ravens QB Joe Flacco is also struggling with an ankle injury, and it has hampered his play in recent games. Flacco is having problems with mobility and stepping into the ball, so any help from the running game will be crucial. 3. Mix it up. The Ravens have to get everyone involved in the passing game, not just WR Derrick Mason and RB Ray Rice. The Ravens are too predictable at times, and they are at their best when Flacco is connecting with WR Mark Clayton and TE Todd Heap. Also, slot receiver Kelley Washington has to become a primary weapon again on third down situations.

Packers Keys For Success

1. Get Charles Woodson near the line of scrimmage. After using him the past two weeks to cover WR Calvin Johnson and TE Vernon Davis, it's time to get Woodson back in the box. The secondary can probably handle the other receivers provided there's decent pass rush, so it makes sense to send Woodson on a lot of blitzes. When he's in the box, he can play the run and should be a good safety valve against Ravens RB Ray Rice breaking big runs.
2. Spread out the Ravens. As important as it is to establish the running game in what could be fairly chilly conditions, it's going to be critical to get the Ravens in nickel and dime situations and isolate tight end Jermichael Finley and one of the receivers on the Ravens' linebackers. Ray Lewis can still move north and south, but if the Packers can get Finley or a running back to challenge him in the flats, it might help take him out of the game. A lot will depend on how well the line blocks. 3. Commit fewer penalties on special teams than the Ravens. Both teams are among the most penalized in the NFL and are committing a lot of infractions on special teams. Field position will be critical because there likely won't be a lot of scoring, so the team that keeps wiping out returns with dumb penalties will be at a disadvantage. Expect a lot of hitting, but if the Packers are smarter, they'll have a better shot at winning.

The Bottom Line

The Ravens can throw the ball in any weather with Flacco. So if the Packers load up people in the box, they should be able to take advantage of it. But this should be a chance for the Packers to establish the run with Ryan Grant, Ahman Green and Brandon Jackson, and if they do that, Rodgers will have all day to throw. The Packers have played well at home in the last two games and the crowd has played to the defense quite a bit. It will be tough for the Ravens to overcome the defense and the noise.
Scoring prediction: Ravens 16 - Packers 20

[infamousbacardi]

I think it's a reputable source, by the name of ESPN

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/total/position/defense

[jerseykingpin]

Thats for total yards and for all around d nope and if you look under defance there 23 which is for tackles and so on
From another sporting news site on this weeks steelers game (Despite its No. 1 league ranking, the defense has been something of a disappointment for the Steelers, especially in the fourth quarter. They have been unable to protect late leads in four of their five losses, allowing 34 points in the fourth quarter in those games. )

[jerseykingpin]

I think it's a reputable source, by the name of ESPN

http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...sition/defense

ESPN REPUTABLE They get there news from other sports shows thats why their always late on a story

[Totolover1409]

Agreed....may snow

[infamousbacardi]

You're clearly just being a Steeler's homer...how can you post something yourself saying,

"The Ravens' three-headed rushing attack will face the league's No. 1 defense overall and fourth-ranked rush defense. Johnny Jolly, Ryan Pickett and Cullen Jenkins have been outstanding in Dom Capers' 3-4 defense and are the key to the run defense's success."

Then try and say they don't have the No.1 ranked defense...call it what you want...I'm not saying we have the best defense in the NFL...but as of right now, we do have the No.1 ranked defense in the NFL. And yes, finding a stat on ESPN.com makes it legitimate...much more so than finding it on a website like "www.steelersfancirclejerk.blogspot. com" where you probably got yours mate. Good luck if you tip this game...and to anyone who Tips this game...I'll just be trying to keep warm. BOL everyone

[msec512]

I wouldn't classify Flacco as "Explosive". Also, both teams do have decent defenses. Baltimore is very good against the run. And the Packers have done well lately, especially at home. Look the their recent home games. It might go over , but I wouldn't say this play is a lock.