Turkey Day Picks
In a Thanksgiving Day tradition, the Green Bay Packers will go into Detroit and lay down a good ol’ fashion turkey shoot. The line is set at 10.5 and it should be more like 17.5. Stafford is out, but I don’t think that makes a great difference in this game, the difference maker in this game will be the Detroit defense against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers electric offense. Detroit has given up 275 yards per game in the air during the season, Aaron Rodgers will be able to pick them apart and the 10.5 point spread should be met by half-time. Detroit numbers claim they average 18 points per game, but that number is inflated due to the 38 point game they put up last week, the four weeks prior to the shoot out with Cleveland the Lions only scored 10 points per game. With that in mind, it is easy to assume the Packers can hang 21 points against a horrible Lions defense. Take the Packers and lay the 10.5 points with confidence.
The total in the Packers and Lions game is set at 47.5 which is just about where I would have expected it to be. The teams average a total of 46.8 points between the two of them, with Stafford out and facing a decent Green Bay defense I would expect the Lions output to go down, while the Packers output to go up. I won’t be touching this total.
Oakland will go into Dallas after shocking the Bengals on a late fumbled kickoff last week. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a skin of their teeth win against a horrible Redskins team. Jerry Jones knows that they will be on the national spotlight this Thursday, and will expect the Cowboys to win easily, I am just not sure they can. The Oakland pass defense has had some very good games this year and I expect that to continue against Romo and the cowboys. The Raiders have only allowed 207 yards through the air a game, the way the Cowboys will win this game is on the ground and the Cowboys running game isn’t one that will blow someone out of the water. I don’t expect the Raiders to win the game, but they keep it within two touchdowns. The line is set at 13.5, and I would recommend buying the half point and taking the Raiders +14.
Now the total is a play here in my opinion, the line is set at 40.5 and most think it looks low, but neither of these offenses look like they will score a great deal of points, and the Raiders defense will hold Romo to minimal scoring opportunities, this could easily turn into a field goal fest and the under is the play here.
What has happened to the Broncos? At the beginning of the season, they looked like a team to beat in the AFC, now they just look like a team easily beaten in the AFC. The Giants are coming off a game they tried to lose against Atlanta, while the Broncos are coming off another shellacking from San Diego. This game doesn’t seem like its going to be close, the Bronco’s have shown nothing lately that would show they have the ability to hang with Eli and the Giants. The Giants on the other hand will put a great deal of pressure on Kyle Orton making his decision making a key part of this game. With that in mind, I have no problem taking the Giants in Denver giving up less than a touchdown.
It is rare that I am willing to give up 7 points and take the under in a game, but I think that’s what we are looking at here in this game. The Giants offense should be enough to score 25 points or so against the Broncos but I don’t see the Bronco’s offense scoring more than 17 against the Giants, the line is set at 42 and I don’t see the Broncos doing their part to hit the total. Small play on the Under.
RECAP
Packers -10.5
Oakland +14 (bought 0.5 points)
Oakland / Dallas UNDER 40
New York Giants -6.5
New York Giants / Denver Broncos UNDER 42.
In a Thanksgiving Day tradition, the Green Bay Packers will go into Detroit and lay down a good ol’ fashion turkey shoot. The line is set at 10.5 and it should be more like 17.5. Stafford is out, but I don’t think that makes a great difference in this game, the difference maker in this game will be the Detroit defense against Aaron Rodgers and the Packers electric offense. Detroit has given up 275 yards per game in the air during the season, Aaron Rodgers will be able to pick them apart and the 10.5 point spread should be met by half-time. Detroit numbers claim they average 18 points per game, but that number is inflated due to the 38 point game they put up last week, the four weeks prior to the shoot out with Cleveland the Lions only scored 10 points per game. With that in mind, it is easy to assume the Packers can hang 21 points against a horrible Lions defense. Take the Packers and lay the 10.5 points with confidence.
The total in the Packers and Lions game is set at 47.5 which is just about where I would have expected it to be. The teams average a total of 46.8 points between the two of them, with Stafford out and facing a decent Green Bay defense I would expect the Lions output to go down, while the Packers output to go up. I won’t be touching this total.
Oakland will go into Dallas after shocking the Bengals on a late fumbled kickoff last week. Dallas on the other hand is coming off a skin of their teeth win against a horrible Redskins team. Jerry Jones knows that they will be on the national spotlight this Thursday, and will expect the Cowboys to win easily, I am just not sure they can. The Oakland pass defense has had some very good games this year and I expect that to continue against Romo and the cowboys. The Raiders have only allowed 207 yards through the air a game, the way the Cowboys will win this game is on the ground and the Cowboys running game isn’t one that will blow someone out of the water. I don’t expect the Raiders to win the game, but they keep it within two touchdowns. The line is set at 13.5, and I would recommend buying the half point and taking the Raiders +14.
Now the total is a play here in my opinion, the line is set at 40.5 and most think it looks low, but neither of these offenses look like they will score a great deal of points, and the Raiders defense will hold Romo to minimal scoring opportunities, this could easily turn into a field goal fest and the under is the play here.
What has happened to the Broncos? At the beginning of the season, they looked like a team to beat in the AFC, now they just look like a team easily beaten in the AFC. The Giants are coming off a game they tried to lose against Atlanta, while the Broncos are coming off another shellacking from San Diego. This game doesn’t seem like its going to be close, the Bronco’s have shown nothing lately that would show they have the ability to hang with Eli and the Giants. The Giants on the other hand will put a great deal of pressure on Kyle Orton making his decision making a key part of this game. With that in mind, I have no problem taking the Giants in Denver giving up less than a touchdown.
It is rare that I am willing to give up 7 points and take the under in a game, but I think that’s what we are looking at here in this game. The Giants offense should be enough to score 25 points or so against the Broncos but I don’t see the Bronco’s offense scoring more than 17 against the Giants, the line is set at 42 and I don’t see the Broncos doing their part to hit the total. Small play on the Under.
RECAP
Packers -10.5
Oakland +14 (bought 0.5 points)
Oakland / Dallas UNDER 40
New York Giants -6.5
New York Giants / Denver Broncos UNDER 42.
Nice work. i am on the packs and giants w/ you all the way to the bankkk
