Week 11 one early pick

[Limey]

Miami at Carolina

I'm posting this well ahead of my weekly "picks and thoughts' thread because, obviously, the game is on Thursday night.

I'm betting on the total here for several reasons. First of all, the yards-per-point for these teams (particularly the Dolphins) suggests that their games have featured more points so far than would generally be the norm.

Secondly, Miami offensive co-ordinator Dan Henning was Carolina OC from 2002 to January 2007. This may help give Miami some inside track to stymie Jake Delhomme and slow down the Carolina offense.

Thirdly, both teams can be expected to run the ball pretty heavily. The Dolphins are masters of long clock-consuming drives.

It all points to a low-scoring game. I was surprised to see the line at 43.5 on Monday, not surprised to see it bet down to 42.5 since I got on at 43. I guess recent high scoring games for the Panthers played a part in the line, but those were against the high-octane passing attacks of Arizona, New Orleans and Atlanta. So the bet is:

UNDER 43 for 9 units

[jcp1764]

Yeah I can def. see like a 24-17 game. But it could really go either way. If the panthers D comes out soft and lets the dolphins get a couple big runs early the game could easily get into 27-20, 34-20 range. But the panthers are good against not giving up the big play so we'll just have to see. Good luck.

[Sports Cruncher]

The Dolphins' will be without Ronnie Brown, but are still in a position where they have to run a lot as Henne versus the Panther's secondary is a bad matchup for them. I took Under 21.5 first half yesterday, getting on the right side of a key number. GL, Limey!

[balman]

Hey Limey,

i like the call both teams will run the ball and i can see it staying under 43... i'm taking Panthers -3 (i hate the juice -125) but i just feel like without Ronnie Brown Miami is at a major disadvantage

[iceminers26]

Good luck Limey, like the Panthers in this one

[2daBank]

think the under is by far the best play in this gm!! will probly hit it str8 then put a little parleyed w car-3

[tigerbalm13]

Unders is a good bet. Im on this aswell. As for Miami without Brown, I still think they can pull something out. Dolphins +3. Goodluck

[Limey]

Phew - my biggest bet of the season paid off. It was close at the end but with just 17 points through three quarters I'd say it was a strong call.

[iceminers26]

[balman]

good one limey... i lost my car -3... you are beating my like a rented mule

cheers
balman