Wal's MNF Potential Winner/Loser

[wal66]

I don't doubt for an instance just how prolific of a scoring threat the Saints have been this season. Brees is been on fire. Last week I thought I had it easy after the first half and what Miami was doing only to watch how unstoppable New Orleans could be when they take control of the momentum. It could get ugly tonight but I'm thinking the Falcons could pull off the upset here. Not likely to happen but I still can't pass on a decent team and 11.5 points.


Play:

Atlanta Falcons +11.5**

[kp126]

is this a play from your model? or do you have an estimated line on this play?

[wal66]

kp........my program is only set up for college football. That would explain my less than 50% in any other sport.

Falcons have a good squade and I personally think they can hang tonight. I will admit though I am reasonable fade material in all sports other than NCAA Football.

I would fade myself but everytime I do I tend to pick the times I was right in the first place.

[rdrunner466]

I think you are on tonight got falcons +12

[JayC]

I'm hoping for the OVER! BOL

[Tygah]

bet the over

[KUGAMER]

That's the problem with picking ATL here. There is no way NO will come out that flat again, especially at home. Also the homefield adavantage is so huge in that dome. Place will be rocking tonite! The Falcons will have to hope they win that toss and take the ball, cuz if they lose NO takes the ball and scores first. Just builds on that huge momentum they will already have bein at home. All this said,tough one to call with all those points. ATL is no pushover...

[JayC]

Falcons +11.5 and OVER

[CashIn]

[kp126]

if you do not mind sharing... what is the reason why it works for ncaaf and not nfl?

is there one specific piece of statistic that is more reliable on ncaaf compared to nfl?

[wal66]

A rare NFL winner. BARELY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[wal66]

if you do not mind sharing... what is the reason why it works for ncaaf and not nfl?

is there one specific piece of statistic that is more reliable on ncaaf compared to nfl?

The main reason is in college football I start with Sargin as a base and then add to that from there with my own variables.

In the NFL I have yet to find a power ranking that is as consistant as Sargin's. I have tried to duplicate it in the NFL and one year I was close for about 3 weeks and then it all went to hell. I still attempt to create something from complete scratch in the other sports but seem to be missing something that get's it to a more consistant level.

I have always credited Sargin's as being instrumental to my program. Whatever goes into his formula is an incredible base.