NFL Week 9: Early steam on home teams off road losses
Monday, November 2, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
Opening lines for aeveral games on the NFL Week 9 slate shot up as bettors jumped on the action and put down some early dough on the 49ers, Jaguars and New York Giants.
A look at early Week 9 line movement in the NFL has the steam backing home teams that lost this past Sunday on the road. While a situation like this can generally have some value, it can sometimes already be too late to tail these moves come Monday or Tuesday.
With the Week 9 lines coming out Sunday night for the NFL, bookmakers wasted no time getting their opinions up on the board. Leading the way this week for being backed in early action was the San Francisco 49ers as they are hosting the Tennessee Titans. The 49ers opened as a 4-point favorite at The Greek and were quickly bet up to being 5½-point chalk.
Although San Francisco lost on the road at Indianapolis on Sunday, they have a 2-1 record at home and facing a 1-6 Titans team that has no wins on the road this season. Coach Mike Singletary will not have the 49ers taking any opponent lightly, especially after a loss and being in a tight division lead right now. This handicapper is in agreement with the steam here in laying the points and I feel the move upward from 4 to 5½ is still not enough to make me look the other way.
The first game on the board this week just by sheer rotation number is the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars and by the time the rest of the matchups were posted, this game already had some serious backing for the Jaguars.
Jacksonville was favored by 5½ points and in less than 10 minutes became a 6½ point favorite. It was an embarrassing loss for the Jaguars last week as they visited Tennessee and became the first team to be defeated by the Titans this season. They will look to bounce back at home against the Chiefs who are off a bye and with a winning record at home this season, Jacksonville should continue to get more action throughout the week.
Up north, the New York Giants have gotten their share of early money for Week 9 as they opened a 3-point favorite against the San Diego Chargers at TheGreek only to become 3½ point chalk just 15 minutes later. Other sportsbooks have been a little slower to move that number as they are welcoming anyone wanting to take a chance on the Giants after some disappointing losses lately.
This to me is a case of too much lost value on the favorite as we all know the move from 3 to 3 ½ puts anyone backing the favorite at a big disadvantage. It will become a pass for me unless going back down to 3, but is an appealing play with it being the first Chargers trip to the east coast for a game this season.
Totals to get the money in Week 9
Betting totals for the week early can sometimes be more crucial than with sides as the line movement can happen faster with them. This is because maximums are generally much lower on totals than sides no matter how big the sportsbook is you want to wager with. Weather forecasts can also change during the week and sometimes it is worth some guesswork to get in early for getting the best number.
Three totals stuck out to me more than any other on the board and I will be taking all of them early. Out of these, the only under is in Chicago when the Bears host the Arizona Cardinals. This total opened at 45½ at TheGreek and has since settled at 45. With the Bears coming off an impressive game in Cleveland on Sunday and not allowing any touchdowns against the Browns, it will surely be a bigger challenge to stop the Cardinals offense.
Even with that step up in class, I still feel a number of 45 is too high. The Cardinals gave up 34 points to the Panthers on Sunday which is likely inflating this number a little and neither offense will do their part to get the yards and points racked up here. Both the Bears and Cardinals are actually below average compared to the rest of the league in yards gained per game, and a total this high really needs at least one offense if not two to carry the load so I suggest going with the under before it drops further.
Two Overs that I like this week take us to Cincinnati where the Bengals will take on the Baltimore Ravens and out west where the Seattle Seahawks will be on their home turf against the Detroit Lions.
Although the Bengals and Ravens went under the total when meeting a few weeks ago, I think we we will see some more scoring in this week’s rematch. Cincinnati will be coming into this one off a bye and went into it with the offense really clicking as they crushed the Bears 45-10 two weeks ago.
The Ravens also come in ready to run and gun as they hung 30 points on one of the league’s best defenses in the Denver Broncos on Sunday. I think we will see a lot of passing here and have it be a real shootout as both squads have this circled as not only a rematch but a game having a big affect on the AFC North standings. Get in early on the over 43½ here.
One of the biggest blowouts of the week could come in Seattle when the Seahawks take on the Lions, but rather than lay the double-digit chalk I am going with the Over 42½. I feel the Lions will probably not contribute much scoring here, but that it sets up nicely for Seattle to more than make up for that.
The Seahawks have been a team with some home-road disparity having not won on the road at all this season but having two big wins at home. With the NFC West still within anyone’s grasp this is a game the Seahawks will not take lightly and could run up the score at will to build confidence again. I would also look for some turnovers by the Lions and for Seattle to quickly turn those into points. Take the over early as books will likely get many Seahawks-Over parlays coming their way this week.
Monday, November 2, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
Opening lines for aeveral games on the NFL Week 9 slate shot up as bettors jumped on the action and put down some early dough on the 49ers, Jaguars and New York Giants.
A look at early Week 9 line movement in the NFL has the steam backing home teams that lost this past Sunday on the road. While a situation like this can generally have some value, it can sometimes already be too late to tail these moves come Monday or Tuesday.
With the Week 9 lines coming out Sunday night for the NFL, bookmakers wasted no time getting their opinions up on the board. Leading the way this week for being backed in early action was the San Francisco 49ers as they are hosting the Tennessee Titans. The 49ers opened as a 4-point favorite at The Greek and were quickly bet up to being 5½-point chalk.
Although San Francisco lost on the road at Indianapolis on Sunday, they have a 2-1 record at home and facing a 1-6 Titans team that has no wins on the road this season. Coach Mike Singletary will not have the 49ers taking any opponent lightly, especially after a loss and being in a tight division lead right now. This handicapper is in agreement with the steam here in laying the points and I feel the move upward from 4 to 5½ is still not enough to make me look the other way.
The first game on the board this week just by sheer rotation number is the Kansas City Chiefs visiting the Jacksonville Jaguars and by the time the rest of the matchups were posted, this game already had some serious backing for the Jaguars.
Jacksonville was favored by 5½ points and in less than 10 minutes became a 6½ point favorite. It was an embarrassing loss for the Jaguars last week as they visited Tennessee and became the first team to be defeated by the Titans this season. They will look to bounce back at home against the Chiefs who are off a bye and with a winning record at home this season, Jacksonville should continue to get more action throughout the week.
Up north, the New York Giants have gotten their share of early money for Week 9 as they opened a 3-point favorite against the San Diego Chargers at TheGreek only to become 3½ point chalk just 15 minutes later. Other sportsbooks have been a little slower to move that number as they are welcoming anyone wanting to take a chance on the Giants after some disappointing losses lately.
This to me is a case of too much lost value on the favorite as we all know the move from 3 to 3 ½ puts anyone backing the favorite at a big disadvantage. It will become a pass for me unless going back down to 3, but is an appealing play with it being the first Chargers trip to the east coast for a game this season.
Totals to get the money in Week 9
Betting totals for the week early can sometimes be more crucial than with sides as the line movement can happen faster with them. This is because maximums are generally much lower on totals than sides no matter how big the sportsbook is you want to wager with. Weather forecasts can also change during the week and sometimes it is worth some guesswork to get in early for getting the best number.
Three totals stuck out to me more than any other on the board and I will be taking all of them early. Out of these, the only under is in Chicago when the Bears host the Arizona Cardinals. This total opened at 45½ at TheGreek and has since settled at 45. With the Bears coming off an impressive game in Cleveland on Sunday and not allowing any touchdowns against the Browns, it will surely be a bigger challenge to stop the Cardinals offense.
Even with that step up in class, I still feel a number of 45 is too high. The Cardinals gave up 34 points to the Panthers on Sunday which is likely inflating this number a little and neither offense will do their part to get the yards and points racked up here. Both the Bears and Cardinals are actually below average compared to the rest of the league in yards gained per game, and a total this high really needs at least one offense if not two to carry the load so I suggest going with the under before it drops further.
Two Overs that I like this week take us to Cincinnati where the Bengals will take on the Baltimore Ravens and out west where the Seattle Seahawks will be on their home turf against the Detroit Lions.
Although the Bengals and Ravens went under the total when meeting a few weeks ago, I think we we will see some more scoring in this week’s rematch. Cincinnati will be coming into this one off a bye and went into it with the offense really clicking as they crushed the Bears 45-10 two weeks ago.
The Ravens also come in ready to run and gun as they hung 30 points on one of the league’s best defenses in the Denver Broncos on Sunday. I think we will see a lot of passing here and have it be a real shootout as both squads have this circled as not only a rematch but a game having a big affect on the AFC North standings. Get in early on the over 43½ here.
One of the biggest blowouts of the week could come in Seattle when the Seahawks take on the Lions, but rather than lay the double-digit chalk I am going with the Over 42½. I feel the Lions will probably not contribute much scoring here, but that it sets up nicely for Seattle to more than make up for that.
The Seahawks have been a team with some home-road disparity having not won on the road at all this season but having two big wins at home. With the NFC West still within anyone’s grasp this is a game the Seahawks will not take lightly and could run up the score at will to build confidence again. I would also look for some turnovers by the Lions and for Seattle to quickly turn those into points. Take the over early as books will likely get many Seahawks-Over parlays coming their way this week.