SBR.tv’s Peter Loshak previews Week 7 in the NFL aided by input from LT Profits and his sportsbook source on where the sharp action has come in.
There are only 13 games on this week’s card, with one being played in London, and that game presents Loshak’s favorite bet of the week, the Over 45 in Tampa Bay/New England. The Pats’ offense exploded last week against Tennessee, and there’s little indication that the Bucs will present a better challenge at Wembley Stadium. Four out of Tampa Bay’s six games have gone over 45, with only a shutout at the hands of the Giants’ dominant D and another game against low-scoring Washington staying under that number. Loshak is happy to hear that both LT Profits and the sharp money agrees with him, and also expresses a more modest liking of the over 42 in Chicago/Cincinnati.
The sharpest money on the week supposedly came in on Dallas, albeit at -3 -120, and not the -4 where they are currently. Off of a bye week, Dallas should be well-prepared to take on Atlanta, a team that has been very strong this year so far. LT Profits takes note of the RLM that has occurred with this line, with the line moving in Dallas’ favor despite a majority of the money coming in on the Cowboys.
Oakland is a 6-point home dog to the Jets, who are reeling from their outright loss to Buffalo last week, as well as a season-ending injury to star NT Kris Jenkins. There’s been a ton of debate in betting circles and on SBR concerning the right side, if any, on this game. LT Profits notes that there was RLM with this game as well, favoring Oakland, and Loshak relays that sharp money he heard about for the Raiders was probably the cause of that.
The Saints -6 at Miami is another highly controversial line on the card, with some, including SBR poster SSLP, who loved the Saints as a favorite last week over the Giants, seeing getting New Orleans at less than a TD as a gift, while many others see this game as a classic trap. Miami’s wildcat running schemes do give all manner of teams lots of trouble, and they are off of a bye to boot. New Orleans has been prepping for the wildcat all week though, and has been fantastic on both sides of the ball this year, against all comers. LT expresses a lean to Miami, and Loshak relays that there was sharp action on Miami +7. Loshak throws in his opinions on these games, which lean towards Oakland and the Saints.
Finally, LT Profits points to the Giants -7 over Arizona game as one that might have value due to overreactions to recent games. The Giants are off of a bad road loss to the Saints, while the Cardinals went into Seattle and got a big road win. Yet the Giants are still a TD fave at home here. LT likes the Giants at that telling number.
