Denver +3

atlman_7 · 10-19-09, 02:01 AM

nothing tells me to pick SD except for first instinct. i guess im still a Denver doubter. Tough call for me here. any other advice?

iLogan · 10-19-09, 02:17 PM

SD sucks, Denver hasn't lost...

On the road or not, "SD is in a must win situation" that's just dumb. Until SD get's their crap straight, then I MAY consider taking them giving up points against a WEAK opponent. Until then...

Denver +3 duh.

cs11787 · 10-19-09, 02:27 PM

Denvers "awesome" because theyre undefeated and theyre defense is great. San Diego "sucks" but they are favored by 3.5. Denver is due for a loss and they can afford one. San Diego will be pumped up for this game and they need this more than the Broncos. Leaning SD ML.

iLogan · 10-19-09, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by cs11787

Denvers "awesome" because theyre undefeated and theyre defense is great. San Diego "sucks" but they are favored by 3.5. Denver is due for a loss and they can afford one. San Diego will be pumped up for this game and they need this more than the Broncos. Leaning SD ML.

LMAO at "Due for a loss". I love that logic.

SD SUCKS, PERIOD IMO F*CK WHAT YOU SAY

Gundog · 10-19-09, 02:41 PM

I'm one not to pay too close of attention to trends. I make my selections on who i think has the better overall football team (and who i think will or should cover against the spread). But this trend somehow wants to keep hanging around my mind.
Denver is 0-3 SU And ATS past 3 trips to SD.
Chargers is 6-3 ATS the past 9 Games after a BYE Week.

iLogan · 10-19-09, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by Gundog

I'm one not to pay too close of attention to trends. I make my selections on who i think has the better overall football team (and who i think will or should cover against the spread). But this trend somehow wants to keep hanging around my mind.
Denver is 0-3 SU And ATS past 3 trips to SD.
Chargers is 6-3 ATS the past 9 Games after a BYE Week.

but who is the better team though?

Gundog · 10-19-09, 02:55 PM

At the moment no doubt it's Denver.
Which team will show up tonight?

iLogan · 10-19-09, 02:57 PM

Originally posted by Gundog

At the moment no doubt it's Denver.
Which team will show up tonight?

Now, that is the question..

xyzky · 10-19-09, 02:58 PM

Originally posted by Gundog

I'm one not to pay too close of attention to trends. I make my selections on who i think has the better overall football team (and who i think will or should cover against the spread). But this trend somehow wants to keep hanging around my mind.
Denver is 0-3 SU And ATS past 3 trips to SD.
Chargers is 6-3 ATS the past 9 Games after a BYE Week.

This Denver team is not the same team you see on the trends over the past few years. I think you have to throw that out the window for this one tonight...

Wilforth · 10-19-09, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by xyzky

This Denver team is not the same team you see on the trends over the past few years. I think you have to throw that out the window for this one tonight...

Best read so far!

14Da$ · 10-19-09, 03:07 PM

Denver ML +155 BOL

iLogan · 10-19-09, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by 14Da$

Denver ML +155 BOL

GL

patsfan2727 · 10-19-09, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Gundog

I'm one not to pay too close of attention to trends. I make my selections on who i think has the better overall football team (and who i think will or should cover against the spread). But this trend somehow wants to keep hanging around my mind.
Denver is 0-3 SU And ATS past 3 trips to SD.
Chargers is 6-3 ATS the past 9 Games after a BYE Week.

Ryan Leaf
Mike Riley

Know who these guys are ? That's right, QB and Head Coach of SanDiego 9 years ago, when this second trend started apparently.

The argument you're trying to make is that the way that Ryan Leaf and Mike Riley gameplanned during the BYE week somehow affects tonight's game.

IMO, thats as strong an argument as "San Diego is 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games vs. a head coach named JOSH"

Is it a trend? Yes. Does it have strong correlation to tonight's outcome? I doubt it.

Gundog · 10-19-09, 03:51 PM

2009 MNF Trends:
Favorites have gone 5-1 SU, but are just 3-3 ATS
The ‘over’ has gone 5-1
Home teams own a 4-2 record
Underdogs are 3-1 ATS in divisional games
The Chargers’ Philip Rivers is 4-0 on MNF in his career

khaden · 10-19-09, 03:52 PM

I agree I hate all the trend and numbers from the past ten years bull shit--every team is different from one year to the next--especially with a new coach--I'm sure the chargers will be fired up tonight--but do you think denver is going to come out and not be just as fired up--denver is playing the best football right now and san diego is once again finding themselves in a position of not living up to the preseason hype of how good everyone thinks they will be. I'm on denver with points and on the moneyline. If nothing else they are playing with momentum and believe they are a good team and have been finding ways to win. I see the chargers giving up over 20 points a game and not playing consistent football. You can crunch all the numbers you want and no matter how good you think you are at capping it's 50/50. I like denver--plus that idiot lang is the chargers so I like my chances even more being on denver.

pimike · 10-19-09, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by iLogan

LMAO at "Due for a loss". I love that logic.

SD SUCKS, PERIOD IMO F*CK WHAT YOU SAY

iLogan · 10-19-09, 03:59 PM

Originally posted by pimike

How you like that Yankees/Angels score?

patsfan2727 · 10-19-09, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Gundog

2009 MNF Trends:
Favorites have gone 5-1 SU, but are just 3-3 ATS
The ‘over’ has gone 5-1
Home teams own a 4-2 record
Underdogs are 3-1 ATS in divisional games
The Chargers’ Philip Rivers is 4-0 on MNF in his career

IF A COIN FLIPS 8 TIMES HEADS IN A ROW , DOES THAT MEAN YOU SHOULD TAKE TAILS ON THE 9TH FLIP OR STICK WITH HEADS BECAUSE HEADS IS 8-0 LAST 8 FLIPS ATS????

The only stat there that holds any weight, IMO, is that of the underdogs in divisional games. Both sides play a divisional matchup tight, so getting points usually leads to an ATS victory (as noted by the trend).

Even the one about Rivers is misleading, half of those wins were when LT was LT, and the San Diego defense actually intimidated some teams.

Gundog · 10-19-09, 04:17 PM

The only trend that means anything is the last one... This guy is one of the few that consistently shows up.... Listen I think Denver is a better team, and if they were home in that stadium that is mile high feet above sea level I'd be all over them, people forget about that huge advantage...

Tonight ALOT of play action and deep balls....
But ive not placed my bet yet. And like i said before, i do not bet on Trends (i just find them to be interesting)

iLogan · 10-19-09, 04:19 PM

Originally posted by Gundog

The only trend that means anything is the last one... This guy is one of the few that consistently shows up.... Listen I think Denver is a better team, and if they were home in that stadium that is mile high feet above sea level I'd be all over them, people forget about that huge advantage...

Tonight ALOT of play action and deep balls....
But ive not placed my bet yet. And like i said before, i do not bet on Trends (i just find them to be interesting)

deep balls?!!! Yes, please to Champ's side

Gundog · 10-19-09, 04:48 PM

Champ should contain Jackson, Jackson will get his touches though.
The matchup that we need to watch is Gates and Dawkins. Will Dawkins get exposed to the long ball? Dawkins supports the run game very well. And we know SD is only getting under 4 yards, so we can assume SD will be airing it out.

AdaBarber · 10-20-09, 07:50 AM

Denver

woody78 · 10-20-09, 08:44 AM

Nice call Denver backers. If I had been able to bet it in time I would have went SD, no doubt. I still don't believe in this Denver team for some reason, even after see them play a number of great games. Their defense has done a total 180 from the past few years.

LancheMan · 10-20-09, 09:57 AM

Game management and defense. These are two things that drove me crazy with the Broncs in the past few years. Lost half of my hair! But as I look in the mirror...I've got a few growing back

solobass · 10-20-09, 10:35 AM

nice call, i got in on denver on tuesday at +4. bottom line, trends are trends. if you want to be successful at nfl you have to be able to predict the score within a reasonable degree of accuracy. each week it gets easier as we have more data from the current season.