Hey everyone. Had pretty nice results last week. Hope everyone else did well. Below is this weeks free pick. Hopefully this one can make you money as well. Good Luck!
PICK RAVENS @ +3.5 1.5 Units Bet
** I recommend buying ½ point for the Ravens to avoid a push on such an important bet. The cost to buy this may be different for some of us. I am laying -120, but to be fair I will count this as -125 for the purposes of the guaranteed refund.
My Spread: PK. This is one of the premier matchups of the week, and it will be the hardest test of the season for each of these teams. I believe every game is a must win in the NFL, and Brad Childress is clearly not telling his team "it's alright if we lose this one today." However, Baltimore in particular cannot afford to fall two games behind the Bengals. In addition, a loss would most likely put them in third place in the AFC North considering the Steelers are facing the Browns. We all know that I would not even make this pick based on that reasoning, not to mention release my first pick of the season above 1 unit. The only reason this is not a 2 unit pick is because my spread shows only a 3 points difference. I reserve two unit picks solely for those games with a difference of 6 or more points between my spread and Vegas. I have uncovered a lot of statistics that support this bet, some of which are similar to last week's KC bet (except they favor a team that actually wins games.) Here are just a few of these stats. Dogs that are 3-2 straight up & ATS cover ~85% (11-2.) When these teams were 3-2 SU, and on a 2 game losing streak, they covered 3/3 times. Favorites that are 4-1 ATS have also had a hard time covering in this position. Their record over the past 7 seasons is 4-14 ATS. I will keep the rest of the stats to myself, but these should satisfy some of your curiosity.
PICK RAVENS @ +3.5 1.5 Units Bet
** I recommend buying ½ point for the Ravens to avoid a push on such an important bet. The cost to buy this may be different for some of us. I am laying -120, but to be fair I will count this as -125 for the purposes of the guaranteed refund.
My Spread: PK. This is one of the premier matchups of the week, and it will be the hardest test of the season for each of these teams. I believe every game is a must win in the NFL, and Brad Childress is clearly not telling his team "it's alright if we lose this one today." However, Baltimore in particular cannot afford to fall two games behind the Bengals. In addition, a loss would most likely put them in third place in the AFC North considering the Steelers are facing the Browns. We all know that I would not even make this pick based on that reasoning, not to mention release my first pick of the season above 1 unit. The only reason this is not a 2 unit pick is because my spread shows only a 3 points difference. I reserve two unit picks solely for those games with a difference of 6 or more points between my spread and Vegas. I have uncovered a lot of statistics that support this bet, some of which are similar to last week's KC bet (except they favor a team that actually wins games.) Here are just a few of these stats. Dogs that are 3-2 straight up & ATS cover ~85% (11-2.) When these teams were 3-2 SU, and on a 2 game losing streak, they covered 3/3 times. Favorites that are 4-1 ATS have also had a hard time covering in this position. Their record over the past 7 seasons is 4-14 ATS. I will keep the rest of the stats to myself, but these should satisfy some of your curiosity.
