RJ's Week 6 NFL Picks

[RJ89]

Hi, I’m new here. I’m just here to post my picks and talk about the games, and I really like the analysis of a couple of the posters here. So far this year, I’ve been doing very well betting on the NFL (though I’m terrible at college football).

I posted my plays for last week on another forum edit and I went 8-5 ATS and 2-0 with my underdog picks

I think this may be the worst week to bet on the NFL so far. There are just so many unreliable favorites going against underdogs that are either terrible or overrated, especially with the early games. For example Cincinnati is a good team, but they can’t be trusted as a favorite, while Houston is just not that good. I feel that the Redskins are much better than the Chiefs, but the way they are playing, they aren’t worth betting on. And there are several other games like that. I liked Jacksonville (-10), but the more I look into that matchup, the more I think the Rams have a decent chance to cover. So with all of these bad matchups, this may be my worst week of the year, and I have less picks than I usually have.

My picks are on the next post

[RJ89]

So here are my picks for this week (All plays are 1 unit, except the minor ones which are half a unit):

1:00 games:

Main play (and only play)
New Orleans (-3) over New York @ (-110)
(I feel like I’m the only person not sold on the Giants offense. I know that they have looked great so far this year, they have been up againt one average defense, 3 terrible defenses, and 1 really terrible defense (the Bucs). They do have a great O-line and talented receivers. However Brandon Jacobs hasn’t been running that well. The hopes of their running game tomorrow will be Bradshaw who has been playing well, but is unreliable and was reportedly limited in the last practice. The main reason I don’t buy their offense is Eli Manning. I don’t think people should assume he is an elite QB because he has played weak defenses. It seems like the only receiver he has great chemistry with is Steve Smith. I still don’t trust him to make great throws when he’s under pressure, which the Saints will be able to create. And to add to all of this he has reportedly been limited in practice, and isn’t moving at 100%. And my final point is that while the Giants have been putting up great numbers, they haven’t been converting redzone opportunities, only scoring 8 touchdowns in 24 trips to the redzone. While some of these missed opportunities came in junk time when Carr was the QB, it is still a bad trend, and now they are playing a real defense.

On the other side of the ball, I think the Giants will be able to give Brees some trouble since they are excellent against the pass and will be able to pressure him. Brees does have great chemistry with several different receivers and so I think the passing game will still produce good numbers. The key to this game will be the Saints running game. The Giants have actually had trouble stopping the run and the Saints have a good pair of running backs that are finally supposed to be healthy. I expect the running game to be effective for the Saints, which will open up things for the passing game. The Giants won’t be able to keep up by kicking field goals. Because of this, I like the Saints to win by a touchdown or more.

[RJ89]

4:00 games – MNF (in order of confidence):

Main play:
Seattle (-3) over Arizona @ (-110)
(I think this may be the dumbest spread of the week (though I could be proven wrong) The Cardinals are simply overrated. The Seahawks will be able to pressure Warner who has been mediocre this year, while the Cardinals will have a tough time stopping Seattle’s passing attack. And I’m too lazy to do anymore of a write-up on this game, but I’ll just say that the Seahawks should win by at least 2 TD’s (assuming Hassleback is healthy) and I wish I could sell points back to the sportsbook on this won to have a higher payout.)

Philadelphia (-14) over Oakland @ (-110)
(Some of the Giants players reportedly said that their game felt like a scrimmage and I expect this game to look really similar. It’s got to be tough to prepare a football team as a coach when you’re about to be arrested.)

New England (-9) over Tennessee @ (-110)
(This is the perfect game for Tom Brady to start to get back on track. The Titans will also have trouble on offense since their offensive line has been weak, LenDale White is still slow, and Chris Johnson runs like an idiot.)

New York (-9.5) over Buffalo @ (-110)
(The Jets defense should bounce back in this game after allowing so many points to an underrated Dolphins team. The Bills have a weak offensive line, Fred Jackson is a good back, but is no Ronnie Brown. On the other side of the ball, the Bills will be hurt by the loss of Kawika Mitchell who I thought may have been their best player. The Bills seem to be going downhill really fast, and I’ll fade them the next several weeks.)

Atlanta (-3.5) over Chicago @ (-110)
(I think Chicago is going to be a much tougher matchup for Atlanta than the Niners were. They actually have a functional and multi-dimensional offense that should be able to score and at least get kind of close to keeping up with Atlanta. Chicago’s defense meanwhile has done a good job stopping the run and getting pressure on the QB. I think they’ll have some success stopping the run, but Matt Ryan should have a great game. The Falcons have a great O-line that should give Ryan all kinds of time to find Gonzales and White. The Bears will be able to score, but I don’t think they’ll keep up. I’m skeptical about Forte who has a low ypc average, and Jay Cutler has been interception-prone. And finally the Falcons with Matt Ryan as QB have an excellent record ATS at home, and Lovie Smith has a poor ATS record after a bye week, so I’ll take the Falcons.)

Minor plays:

Atlanta/ Chicago – OVER 46 @ (-110)
(Yeah, I like Chicago’s offense in this game and I really like Atlanta’s offense in this game, so I’ll take the over.)

Denver (+3.5) over San Diego @ (-110)
(San Diego looked terrible in their last game against Pittsburgh. They couldn’t run the ball and their run defense made Mendenhall look like a god. I know that they really need a win in this game, and are coming off a bye week, and that they probably have an emotional edge as the Broncos just won two games huge games. However, I got to go with the better team. The Broncos have one of the best O-lines in the league, so Orton should have time to make plays against the Charger’s undisciplined defense. If Mendenhall can have a game like that against the Charger’s defense then Moreno should at the very least be somewhat effective. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers haven’t been able to run. If they can’t run the ball in this game their offense will be reduced to be one-dimensional, which could be disastrous against the Bronco’s very effective pass defense.)

And I like to waste half a unit each week on either a couple of underdogs, a 7-point teaser, or a parlay. And since I don’t really think there is enough value on any of the underdogs (my gut is telling me to take Detroit and Cleveland, but that feels like throwing money away), and the numbers wouldn’t quite add up the right way on the teaser I was going to do, so I’m going with this parlay:

Seattle (-3) X Philadelphia (-14) X New England (-9) X New York (-9.5) X Atlanta (-3.5)
(0.5 units to win 12.2 units)