Last week followed a familiar pattern for me... if you took out my biggest bet of the weekend (San Francisco, ugh!) then I'd have been a nice winner at 2-1. As it was, I lost about 4 units on 23 or so units staked. Small potatoes.
Sadly, this week again I just haven't had time to go through the games like I normally do, so just four bets. Two small ones that are based more on gut feel than usual, and two over/unders that are based on a really nice statistical method of identifying good totals opportunities to bet on.
Baltimore @ Minnesota UNDER 45.5 8 unit bet
This is system-based, as I said
Detroit @ Green Bay UNDER 47.5 8 unit bet
Again, system of sorts. But I like the play, not sure where Detroit is getting points from in this game.
Tennessee +9.5 @New England 5 unit bet
Gut feel, too many points. Tennessee have had a rough, rough time of it but are somewhat unlucky to actually be winless (OT versus Steelers, two kick fumbles otherwise they beat the Jets). I don't think the Patriots are the best-equipped team, good though they are, for the kind of team Tennessee is, so I'll take the points.
Buffalo +9.5 @ New York Jets 4 unit bet
The Jets over-rated defense (look closely at some stats) got exposed somewhat at Miami, which is a shame for betting purposes, really. However, perhaps the Bills awful home loss offset that in keeping this line pretty darn high. With Buffalo abandoning the no-huddle offense, giving their linemen and defense a little more rest, who says they can't rebound from a terrible performance and make this a highly competitive game....
Sadly, this week again I just haven't had time to go through the games like I normally do, so just four bets. Two small ones that are based more on gut feel than usual, and two over/unders that are based on a really nice statistical method of identifying good totals opportunities to bet on.
Baltimore @ Minnesota UNDER 45.5 8 unit bet
This is system-based, as I said
Detroit @ Green Bay UNDER 47.5 8 unit bet
Again, system of sorts. But I like the play, not sure where Detroit is getting points from in this game.
Tennessee +9.5 @New England 5 unit bet
Gut feel, too many points. Tennessee have had a rough, rough time of it but are somewhat unlucky to actually be winless (OT versus Steelers, two kick fumbles otherwise they beat the Jets). I don't think the Patriots are the best-equipped team, good though they are, for the kind of team Tennessee is, so I'll take the points.
Buffalo +9.5 @ New York Jets 4 unit bet
The Jets over-rated defense (look closely at some stats) got exposed somewhat at Miami, which is a shame for betting purposes, really. However, perhaps the Bills awful home loss offset that in keeping this line pretty darn high. With Buffalo abandoning the no-huddle offense, giving their linemen and defense a little more rest, who says they can't rebound from a terrible performance and make this a highly competitive game....
