6-1 ats in week 5. this will be my season thread. i am looking forward to all of your insights and hopefully talk some math and methodology! I will have my week 6 picks up on late wednesday.
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good luck soloComment -
Congrats to all Dolphins backers last night. Heck of a game. Usually I do not bet MNF because I am crunching numbers for the next week already. Usually by wednesday night I have my picks, then I can take thursday/friday off.Comment -
some very interesting games on the board this week. keep an eye for teams that only have one or two wins against the spread, remember the books try to get every team around 8-8 for the season. also, there is no value on the redskins as a favorite. i have 2 wins with them covering as a dog and that is where their value lies. right now i am leaning cardinals +3 @ seahawks, but not booked yet.Comment -
Well well, here we go. What do I see with week 6? Definitely putting less money on each game compared to last week. Week 5 had a lot of easy home runs out there, but no such luck this time. The lines are pretty sharp (in my estimation) on most games. That being said here are my plays.
Vikings -3
If the line goes to -4 then do not bet. This will be a great contest.
Saints -3
Hard to go against the Giants but I bet by my numbers not my emotions. If the line goes beyond -3.5 then do not bet.
Chiefs +7
Oddsmakers need a few ATS wins for the Chiefs and they get one here. Redskins have very little value as a favorite, and the Chiefs had a decent game against the Cowboys last week. I am waiting until the line (currently +6.5) goes to +7 before making my play.
Raiders +14.5
Ok stop laughing, but seriously I am waiting for the line to move a half point before making my play. I am looking for around a 28 to 17 Eagles victory here.
Broncos +4
You all know I love road teams that cover and spotting those situations. Sure the Chargers are scoring 25.3 a game but they are yielding 25.5 as well. Sabermetrically speaking the Chargers are right where they are supposed to be, and the Broncos are over performing but not by an amount as to not make this a play. On the flip side, I am waiting for that game where the Broncos give up a ton of points. Right now they yield 8.6 points a game and a correction has to come at some time, hopefully not this week!
Typically I like to play between 6 and 9 games a week, but honestly the value is not there this week. Jags -10 is pretty close in my formula but no cigar. I am looking forward to Week 7, lot of value on road teams and there will be much more value on the board. I am always trying to take the long view (the books are!) and Week 9 will be revenge of the home teams big time. Best of luck and keep crunching those numbers!Comment -
Raider +14.5? Did you also bet Rams +10 last week? Have fun with JaMarcus Russell and the Raiders if you decide to pick them
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got it at -14.5 from my local! all i need (praying) is 17 pts at home from the silver and black to cover.Comment -
How on earth are they going to score that many points?Comment -
eagles do surrender 21.5 on average, so they are less than elite when it comes to that side of the ball. yes, the silver and black are in dissaray but also do you think the Oddsmakers/bookmakers take the eagles to 4-1 ats this week? nay i say, nay.Comment -
quick thought about broncos. i think they have been a dog every week, and are 5-0 su and ats on the season. holy perception batman.Comment -
where is everyone now, who else has the testicular fortitude to go 4 figures on the raiders and the chiefs? anyway 3-1 yesterday with the broncos on the board. this remains the least popular thread with the most wins, so i will probably shut it down after tomorrow.Comment -
Working on week #7, lots of games to like.Comment -
solobass...nice work again this week and GL tonight...Comment -
Yep sometimes these are the best threads, the quiet ones :-) Great Job solo!Comment -
ended the week 4-1, to be honest i expected worse. this was a tough board for week 6.Comment -
oddsmakers have taken a big chunk out of the chargers, they are 1-4 ats and the bar will be set low for them this week. chargers -4 @ the chiefs is looking good. lean, not a booked play.Comment -
i will have all my work done and picks in early tomorrow. crunch those numbers people!Comment -
solo, you're the man. Keep up the great work. You had some great insight when you posted during the baseball season and it's the same thing now during the football season.
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all right, here is the deal. i love talking sports and gambling but sbr has not really been the intellectual force i was seeking. i want to take this discussion over to my facebook page where more dialogue can be permitted and more data sharing on a site not scanned by sportsbooks offline and online constantly. search for meshko jackson on facebook or pm me for details, i want to keep this mess rolling!Comment -
Pm me solo would like to keep in touch with youComment -
last post here, i will post something new in a few.Comment -
how can we discuss the games with u on facebook? can u pm me or something?
sorry, i just saw it. See u there. thanksComment
