New to SBR. I'm actually new to the NFL too- I'm a huge NBA fan, and this is my first year watching and seriously following the NFL (I used to only watch playoffs and Super Bowl). I decided it would be fun to bet the NFL this year and see how I'd fare with half of my football knowledge being what I've heard about the NFL on ESPN's PTI and the columns and podcasts that Bill Simmons puts out. The other half of my football knowledge comes from watching Two For the Money multiple times. 
I've actually won every week so far and have more than doubled my bankroll. I play a ton of Teasers and Parlays (yes, yes, "suckers bets" I know, but I love exotic bets and have been able to hit a few every week) and I occasionally wager on games straight up (I, like everyone and their mother, like the Colts -3.5 this weekend). I also have a tendency to stick with heavy favorites and even tease across the zero- I hate dogs. I've done a lot of reading here and other sites over the past few weeks and have been trying to learn as much as possible when it comes to handicapping the NFL and improving my wagers. One the tips I've heard is to post your plays publicly, so here are mine for Week 5, along with my thinking behind each one. Any comments/tips/criticisms are appreciated, and thanks in advance.
Best of luck to anyone piggybacking any of my plays.
SOMEWHAT SANE PLAYS
() STRAIGHT: $30:$27
() Jets -2.5 @ Dolphins
I bought this line VERY EARLY, thinking that the Jets would be favored by more later in the week. I still like them to win by a field goal. I don't know much about football, but the Dolphins wanna run it with their wildcat, and I believe the Jets blitz a league leading 60+ percent of the time. That can't be good.
() STRAIGHT: $40:$36
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
I wagered against the Colts when they played the Cardinals. I will forever stick with the advice of Bill Simmons and never wager against Peyton Manning in a night game. Call me a square, but like everyone else, my thinking is great pass offense versus poor pass defense. Seems simple enough to me.
() TEASER: $15:$38
() Vikings -3.5 @ Rams
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
Yes, I know I'm teasing across the zero with the Colts. I don't care. I'm not touching the flaming thumbtacks. Period.
() TEASER: $15:$38
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Raiders @ Giants Under 45
() Falcons @ 49ers Under 46.5
() Colts @ Titans Under 51.5
I like the Ravens to bounce back from their loss @ New England.
The Raiders suck, Eli Manning isn't 100%, and the game's being playing @ Giants. I expect running and a low score.
I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. I believe the 49ers defense can hold the Falcons under 30.
I'm hoping Colts @ Titans finishes 31-17 at most.
() PARLAY: $20:$48
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
() Patriots -3 @ Broncos
Again, I love the Colts this weekend. I also think Big Hoody > Little Hoody.
SOMEWHAT CRAZY PLAYS
() PARLAY: $10:$52
() Vikings ML @ Rams
() Cowboys ML @ Chiefs
() Ravens ML vs. Bengals
() Steelers ML @ Lions
() Patriots ML @ Broncos
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
I like all 5 of the above Money Line teams to win, and I'd bet my life on the Colts covering.
() TEASER: $10:$60
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Patriots +3 @ Broncos
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
() Jets +4 @ Dolphins
I feel like this ticket will come down to the Monday night game, and again, love the Jets.
() PLEASER: $10:$60
() Patriots -9 @ Broncos
() Colts -9.5 @ Titans
Yes, I know I'm asking for it by taking both these teams -6 on top of what they're already favored by.
() TEASER: $25:$63
() Vikings -3.5 @ Rams
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
Same as one of my above teasers, sans the Patriots and the Colts.
() TEASER: $10:$100
() Vikings -3 @ Rams
() Cowboys -1 @ Chiefs
() Eagles -7.5 vs. Buccaneers
() Ravens -1.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -3.5 @ Lions
() Patriots +4 @ Broncos
() Colts +3.5 @ Titans
() Jets +5.5 @ Dolphins
Yes, I know it's tough to hit an 8 team anything. Love every line though.
() TEASER: $10:$150
() Vikings -3.5 @ Rams
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Eagles -8.5 vs. Buccaneers
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Patriots +3 @ Broncos
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
() Jets +4 @ Dolphins
Same as the above teaser, except this one is +6 instead of +7.
CRAZY PLAYS
() PLEASER: $10:$450
() Patriots -9 @ Broncos
() Cardinals -11.5 vs. Texans
() Colts -9.5 @ Titans
() Jets -7.5 @ Dolphins
Ballsy, but I think this $10 ticket is way more fun and has better odds than a $10 lotto ticket or scratcher.
() PARLAY: $20:$847
() Ravens -8.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -10.5 @ Lions
() 49ers -2.5 vs. Falcons
() Patriots -3 @ Broncos
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
() Jets -2 @ Dolphins
In my first four weeks of betting the NFL, I've hit a 3,4, and 5 team parlay. Going for 6!
In retrospect, I think that 49ers game is a toss-up, and this ticket will live or die based on the performance of my home town team. Go Niners.
() TEASER: $10:$1,500
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Cowboys @ Chiefs Under 49
() Giants -10.5 vs. Raiders
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Steelers @ Lions Under 50
() 49ers +3.5 vs. Falcons
() 49ers vs. Falcons Under 46.5
() Patriots +3 @ Broncos
() Patriots @ Broncos Under 47.5
() Cardinals W vs. Texans
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
() Colts @ Titans Under 51.5
() Jets +4 @ Dolphins
() Jets @ Dolphins Over 30
This is purely for shits and giggles. I did a 12 team 6pt teaser last weekend and hit 10/12. So of course, after failing to strike it rich on a 12-teamer, I had to make it more difficult on myself and try to select 15 teams. I think this one lives/dies based on the outcomes of ATL@SF and HOU@ARI.
I've actually won every week so far and have more than doubled my bankroll. I play a ton of Teasers and Parlays (yes, yes, "suckers bets" I know, but I love exotic bets and have been able to hit a few every week) and I occasionally wager on games straight up (I, like everyone and their mother, like the Colts -3.5 this weekend). I also have a tendency to stick with heavy favorites and even tease across the zero- I hate dogs. I've done a lot of reading here and other sites over the past few weeks and have been trying to learn as much as possible when it comes to handicapping the NFL and improving my wagers. One the tips I've heard is to post your plays publicly, so here are mine for Week 5, along with my thinking behind each one. Any comments/tips/criticisms are appreciated, and thanks in advance.
Best of luck to anyone piggybacking any of my plays.
SOMEWHAT SANE PLAYS
() STRAIGHT: $30:$27
() Jets -2.5 @ Dolphins
I bought this line VERY EARLY, thinking that the Jets would be favored by more later in the week. I still like them to win by a field goal. I don't know much about football, but the Dolphins wanna run it with their wildcat, and I believe the Jets blitz a league leading 60+ percent of the time. That can't be good.
() STRAIGHT: $40:$36
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
I wagered against the Colts when they played the Cardinals. I will forever stick with the advice of Bill Simmons and never wager against Peyton Manning in a night game. Call me a square, but like everyone else, my thinking is great pass offense versus poor pass defense. Seems simple enough to me.
() TEASER: $15:$38
() Vikings -3.5 @ Rams
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
Yes, I know I'm teasing across the zero with the Colts. I don't care. I'm not touching the flaming thumbtacks. Period.
() TEASER: $15:$38
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Raiders @ Giants Under 45
() Falcons @ 49ers Under 46.5
() Colts @ Titans Under 51.5
I like the Ravens to bounce back from their loss @ New England.
The Raiders suck, Eli Manning isn't 100%, and the game's being playing @ Giants. I expect running and a low score.
I live in the San Francisco Bay Area. I believe the 49ers defense can hold the Falcons under 30.
I'm hoping Colts @ Titans finishes 31-17 at most.
() PARLAY: $20:$48
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
() Patriots -3 @ Broncos
Again, I love the Colts this weekend. I also think Big Hoody > Little Hoody.
SOMEWHAT CRAZY PLAYS
() PARLAY: $10:$52
() Vikings ML @ Rams
() Cowboys ML @ Chiefs
() Ravens ML vs. Bengals
() Steelers ML @ Lions
() Patriots ML @ Broncos
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
I like all 5 of the above Money Line teams to win, and I'd bet my life on the Colts covering.
() TEASER: $10:$60
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Patriots +3 @ Broncos
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
() Jets +4 @ Dolphins
I feel like this ticket will come down to the Monday night game, and again, love the Jets.
() PLEASER: $10:$60
() Patriots -9 @ Broncos
() Colts -9.5 @ Titans
Yes, I know I'm asking for it by taking both these teams -6 on top of what they're already favored by.
() TEASER: $25:$63
() Vikings -3.5 @ Rams
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
Same as one of my above teasers, sans the Patriots and the Colts.
() TEASER: $10:$100
() Vikings -3 @ Rams
() Cowboys -1 @ Chiefs
() Eagles -7.5 vs. Buccaneers
() Ravens -1.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -3.5 @ Lions
() Patriots +4 @ Broncos
() Colts +3.5 @ Titans
() Jets +5.5 @ Dolphins
Yes, I know it's tough to hit an 8 team anything. Love every line though.
() TEASER: $10:$150
() Vikings -3.5 @ Rams
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Eagles -8.5 vs. Buccaneers
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Patriots +3 @ Broncos
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
() Jets +4 @ Dolphins
Same as the above teaser, except this one is +6 instead of +7.
CRAZY PLAYS
() PLEASER: $10:$450
() Patriots -9 @ Broncos
() Cardinals -11.5 vs. Texans
() Colts -9.5 @ Titans
() Jets -7.5 @ Dolphins
Ballsy, but I think this $10 ticket is way more fun and has better odds than a $10 lotto ticket or scratcher.
() PARLAY: $20:$847
() Ravens -8.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -10.5 @ Lions
() 49ers -2.5 vs. Falcons
() Patriots -3 @ Broncos
() Colts -3.5 @ Titans
() Jets -2 @ Dolphins
In my first four weeks of betting the NFL, I've hit a 3,4, and 5 team parlay. Going for 6!
In retrospect, I think that 49ers game is a toss-up, and this ticket will live or die based on the performance of my home town team. Go Niners.
() TEASER: $10:$1,500
() Cowboys -2.5 @ Chiefs
() Cowboys @ Chiefs Under 49
() Giants -10.5 vs. Raiders
() Ravens -2.5 vs. Bengals
() Steelers -4.5 @ Lions
() Steelers @ Lions Under 50
() 49ers +3.5 vs. Falcons
() 49ers vs. Falcons Under 46.5
() Patriots +3 @ Broncos
() Patriots @ Broncos Under 47.5
() Cardinals W vs. Texans
() Colts +2.5 @ Titans
() Colts @ Titans Under 51.5
() Jets +4 @ Dolphins
() Jets @ Dolphins Over 30
This is purely for shits and giggles. I did a 12 team 6pt teaser last weekend and hit 10/12. So of course, after failing to strike it rich on a 12-teamer, I had to make it more difficult on myself and try to select 15 teams. I think this one lives/dies based on the outcomes of ATL@SF and HOU@ARI.