Kroyrunner's Week 5 NFL Thread (15-3 ATS YTD)

[kroyrunner89]

It's that time of the week again where I throw this thread up and let it sit around for a week before I finally post up plays. We've got a very ugly slate of games this next week, only one matchup actually looks like it has the potential to be a good game. Indy and the Jets lines also look absurdly low, making them games I don't want to touch with a 10 foot pole. I'll get the process going and pop my head in from time to time to see if you guys have any questions/comments as usual, let's get our fifth winning week in a row!

[TheGambler]

Hey Kroy, really appreciate what you do for the board. I agree with you that there are some really tight lines this week. I'm really looking at Houston and thinking the 6.5 looks good. Hopefully it will go to 7 but I will still play at 6.5 Looking forward to your plays and write ups as they always add great insight to the games. good luck brother

[bombCanada]

No taste at all for Raiders @ Giants?

[DeluxeLiner]

Kroy, this season and last, you are probably the hottest NFL capper out there.

[postman]

New, just checking out how to post. I had a great NBA and MLB season. This year to date has been fantastic. I make a three tm pick and add two for a five tm, I do not know if this year is lucky or easy, but I am 4-0 on 3’s and 2-2 on 5’s. mucho dinero.

[artist]

I'm bad 15-3 ytd that's awesome

[DaChosen1FoSho]

I definately wait for your thread before finalizing my pics. Keep it up bro.

[kroyrunner89]

Thanks for all the support guys. I'm staying far away from that Raiders game, we don't know how Eli's foot injury will affect him, and to be honest I just don't like picking high lines. I find that I am best when I focus on the lines that are a touchdown or lower. That's not saying that I won't pick any games with large lines this year, I'm just saying that you won't see much of it.

[postman]

I will stick with my 3 & 5 parlay
MIN-10PIT-10.5IND-3.5plus twoDAL-9ARI-5.5

[kroyrunner89]

Good luck, just a heads up I'm going to be on the other side of that Arizona play.

[kroyrunner89]

• SF 49ers -2
• SF/Atlanta UNDER 40.5

This is a very interesting game this week, with Atlanta coming off of a bye and Frank Gore still out for the 49ers. The main philosophy driving this pick for me is how much worse the Falcons were last year on the road, and their brutal loss to the Patriots a couple of weeks ago led me to believe that nothing has changed. They've struggled to get Turner running well all year, and the SF defense will certainly be another challenge for him.

Atlanta has been a middle of the pack defense so far, and although San Francisco doesn't exactly light it up on offense they usually are able to put some quality drives together to get points on the board. Their defense is stellar at creating turnovers as well, something that could also set them up for some easy points. I think both offenses will struggle to move the ball in this one, but in the end San Fransisco will come out with a win in a hard fought, low scoring game.

• Houston Texans +5

I'm not ready to give up on the Texans yet. Although they benefited from playing the lowly Raiders last week, bringing their defensive numbers to a little bit more reasonable of a level, I'm still aware that their defense just isn't good. However, Arizona is not playing anywhere near the level they played last year. Turnovers have cost them big so far, and like years in the past their rushing offense is putting up very mediocre numbers.

The red flag here that makes me go with the Texans is how awful the Arizona pass defense has been. Arizona has allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt against them, something that I fully expect the Texans to take advantage of. Although Arizona will put up their fair share of points, Houston will be able to answer without much problem. Not to mention that the Texans are finally starting to get Steve Slaton going as he's been running much better these last two games with 33 carries for 141 yards. This game could get pretty high scoring, although a 24-21 type of game wouldn't surprise me either. I think that worst case scenario has Arizona winning by a field goal. The Texans should cover in this one no problem.

• Patriots/Broncos UNDER 41

This play jumped out pretty quickly to me this week. Here we have a Patriots offense that still hasn't done anything to show me that they've gelled, going against one of the best defenses in the NFL right now. The Patriots should have lost last week's game, as they didn't look great on offense, but got bailed out by a few dumb penalties by the Ravens that kept their drives alive. Meanwhile, we have a Denver offense here that isn't the most explosive offense in the world, going against a middle of the pack defense. I'd be very surprised if we didn't see Denver trying to run quite a bit on the Patriots and wind clock to keep the ball out of Brady's hands, which of course will aid in keeping the point total in this game down. These teams are also the 8th and 11th worst in the league at turning their yards into points, so we may see them settling for field goals quite a bit (Not to mention that Denver's defense is best in the league in this category). We should have a low scoring battle ahead of us in Denver tomorrow, and I think the under has a pretty high chance of coming through for us.

Good luck this week guys!

[Bogart45]

BOL this week.

[kroyrunner89]

thanks bogart, you too!

[jcygts6]

Keep up the good work Kroy!

[2daBank]

KR I THINK U ARE RIGHT ON THE MONEY w both of those unders! i love having gms capped then come to ur thread and see we on the same side. ive been back and forth w a side on sf/atl all week frisco has certainly been good 2 me all year! im just worried w atl bend but dont break d they should keep frisco kicking fgs. and yes atl hasnt been same on the road but also think they have by far the most offensively gifted team sf has seen this year comin off the bye i could see them putting up 20 which should b more than enough. if atl get up to +3 i have to take the fg and think worst case push. respect da hell out of your picks GL AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK

[bombCanada]

good luck today, guys.

[Dana4U]

GL this week Kroy! The SF game has me a bit nervous, but I'm going to tail you on this one because of the points made in your write up. Atlanta has a pretty good offense, but SF might have the better defense.

[tango]

Thanks for the picks. Better luck next week.

[kroyrunner89]

Yeah, wish I could have done a little more with this week. Absolutely brutal, I read the SF game wrong on all accounts I guess, the Houston beat was as brutal as they come. But weeks like this happen, even the best cappers take a shot every once in a while. Nothing more I can do than just shake it off, forget about it, and get going towards week 6

[Dana4U]

San Fran

The San Fran of the old days showed up again. My gut feel was that SF was going to get their ass kicked .... they just looked better because of their blow out victory over St. Louis. Oh well ... better luck to everyone next week!

[PeePee]

I went 0-5 yesterday so I feel for you.

SF & Jax did not have a chance.
Bal lost at home and ruined my 10 pts teaser, to the Bengirls.
Pat got shut out and lost the 10 pts lead. How many time that's happened???

[artist]

Wow what's your record now?

[PeePee]

Wow what's your record now?

If it's me you asked.... I don't keep track of my record but I think it's about 50%. The good thing is I won about $3000 in college the day before and lost them all yesterday so it's stunning but we move on.

[kroyrunner89]

Wow what's your record now?

If that is for me, I'm 16-6 now.

[bypp]

kroyrunner, you're a great capper. i get your emails and always take a look at what youre playing, and definitely make any game a no-play if i'm opposite of you. you'll bounce back next week im sure. good luck!

[postman]

WELL PIT GAVE UP IN THE LAST TWO MINS WAITING FOR GAME TO END AND COST ME MY 5th THREE TEAM PARLAY IN A ROW. I AM 30 AND 8 ON THE YEAR BUT I DO NOT BET ALL MY PICKS. LOOKING AT MY 8, I WAS 7 AND 1 ON 7 TM TEASERS. MY NEW STRATEGY WILL BE PICK MY 3 TM PARLAY AND A 6 TM HEDGE TEASER. IN THE FUTURE I WILL GIVE MY PARLAY AND MY TEASER. BY WEEKS I WAS 4-1, 6-0, 9-2, 6-2, 5-3.

[bombCanada]

Forgot to give you the point for the winner. thanks Kroy.

[kroyrunner89]

Haha thanks Bomb, although I should be giving you points after how the week went! I'll earn them next week!

[bombCanada]

Haha thanks Bomb, although I should be giving you points after how the week went! I'll earn them next week!

Nope, all part of the deal. You give me picks I give you points. Apply proper money management to your picks and I'm a happy guy. Best luck next week.

[postman]

I was going to go conservative and hedge a teaser but greed took over. I will stick with parlays out of my 8 best.
PHI NE NYJ
plus two CIN ATL

[postman]

Well black Sunday showed up as it always does wks 6,7,or 8, favs went 5 and 9.
If you have been hammering the favs you are way ahead. I think I will recover some money with a 6tm seven point teaser.
NE IND CHI GB CAR PHI
I would expect 5 of these to cover out right, So i will through a dime on all six.