71.4% and a loser...

TRE1968 · 09-20-09, 11:23 PM

play them all for the same

nybigapple · 09-20-09, 11:28 PM

Being a new guy at sports betting, I think that might be the best route for now. Though I was the most confident with those two plays...

DevilDog · 09-21-09, 01:52 AM

I have to be honest here....what the hell are you thiniking? Basic math shows that you should NOT be betting different unit amounts on different games. Bet the SAME unit amount on EACH game.

It is a travesty that you go 5-2 and lose money. How insane!!!

Do you know why so many touts and others use unit wagering? It is because they can then make their unit totals sometimes look a lot better.

After all, for example, what looks better. A 5-2 record with one unit being bet on each game for a total of 2.8 unit profit?

Or five units being bet on each game for a total of a 14 unit profit with the same record. It looks better to have the 14 unit profit of course but in reality it is the same thing!!

Now on to YOUR case. It is hard enough to pick close to 60% winners just finding pointspread winners. Why then make it even harder when you have to decide which is the bigger unit game? It makes NO sense and the math proves it.

Your day is typical of what so many go through.

Some acting like a 10 cent tout and just play the same units on each game. In the end you will come out farther. Anytime you hit five out of seven and you LOSE money you should really question what you are doing.

DevilDog

drfunkmaster · 09-21-09, 02:55 AM

Originally posted by DevilDog

I have to be honest here....what the hell are you thiniking? Basic math shows that you should NOT be betting different unit amounts on different games. Bet the SAME unit amount on EACH game. It is a travesty that you go 5-2 and lose money. How insane!!! Do you know why so many touts and others use unit wagering? It is because they can then make their unit totals sometimes look a lot better. After all, for example, what looks better. A 5-2 record with one unit being bet on each game for a total of 2.8 unit profit? Or five units being bet on each game for a total of a 14 unit profit with the same record. It looks better to have the 14 unit profit of course but in reality it is the same thing!! Now on to YOUR case. It is hard enough to pick close to 60% winners just finding pointspread winners. Why then make it even harder when you have to decide which is the bigger unit game? It makes NO sense and the math proves it. Your day is typical of what so many go through. Some acting like a 10 cent tout and just play the same units on each game. In the end you will come out farther. Anytime you hit five out of seven and you LOSE money you should really question what you are doing. DevilDog

well said..

donjuan · 09-21-09, 04:29 AM

I have to be honest here....what the hell are you thiniking? Basic math shows that you should NOT be betting different unit amounts on different games. Bet the SAME unit amount on EACH game.

Not only does basic math not show that in any way, more advanced math shows you're wrong: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

aca · 09-21-09, 04:34 AM

Yes but if you have 2-5 and win your big play you will be OK!

LT Profits · 09-21-09, 06:27 AM

Nothing wrong with varying units, but the mistake you made was betting DOUBLE and TRIPLE your base units on the 2 plays. NFL full-game edges generally do not vary THAT miuch.

nybigapple · 09-21-09, 11:14 AM

Thanks for the words of wisdom.

I'm examining the Kelly criterion, but I think it varies too much on a personal gauge of the probability to win. I can't really gauge how accurate my ability is, especially since all my "big" plays were wrong yesterday. I'll stick to single units for now.