Statistics...

[Limey]

A debate about Houston's offensive quality in one of the threads here reminded me that it is worth looking closely at stats. We're spoilt for choice with stats in football, it's the perfect sport for them, but too often we're content to simply say things like "Houston was the number four offense last season".

There's nothing wrong with that in itself, but what does it mean? It means they put up the fourth most yards per play. Okay, that's meaningful. But it doesn't tell you that Houston coughed the ball up 32 times or that they sucked inside the red-zone.

This isn't meant as a knock on anyone, just a reminder - to myself, as much as anything - that stats can tell half a story, or mean more (or less) than you assume if you don't think about them a little.....

[nick2060]

Definitely agree with you and good thread. Offense in general is misleading, my friend and I always used to argue whether defenses or offenses should be judged by points or yards. On the one hand a bend but don't break defense who gives up field goals and a lot of yards but no a lot of touchdowns could find themselves close to the bottom, when it might not be an accurate representation. On the other hand using points might make a team with an offense that turns it over suffer, because the defense could often be defending a short field and give up more points. Theres no stats to accurately judge how a team got pressure or how a team protected their quarterback(hurries matter) so really stats can be extremely overrated in certain circumstances.

[Limey]

Thanks and yes, the point is you have to try to look under the surface of stats. It's too easy (and I've definitely done it) to take a passing glance at a stat and because it suits a bet you're looking to have, you sieze on it at face value.

We can't afford to be lazy, if we really want to back winners. I think this is a great forum but there are tons of comments about teams and performances that just don't bear close scrutiny and are probably based on nothing more than looking at the final scores! Team X gave up 24 points, their defense played crap! (Oh, but actually the 24 points included a blocked-punt TD, a drive that started almost on the goal-line, and a 53-yard field goal...)

In the end, watching as many games as possible is obviously best, but it's amazing how much insight you can get by actually reading the full box-score and play-by-play of a game you haven't seen.... you can really see beyond the throwaway punditry and lazy soundbites that are thrown at you constantly by fans, TV and the internet. That reminds me of another thread I must go and start.....