BG's Week 2 Leans...and plays (SEA, PIT, NO, etc)

Totolover1409 · 09-16-09, 07:44 PM

Although I'm a huge niner fan, I really like the Seattle pick. Even though Hasselbeck threw a couple of picks against the Rams and tends to choke a lot, I think the Seahawks might be a new team this year.

Also like Pittsburgh with Urlacher out and a struggling Kyle Orten.

Dunno about the New England game as you saw on Monday Night how they struggled to beat the Bills. With a stronger D, i think the jets might steal this one.

BGboothA · 09-16-09, 07:52 PM

You know, thats the game I just finished looking at a little stronger, and my gut says NE, and that 3 points doesn't look like much. Brady and company isn't going to be happy coming off that Buffalo game.

but looking at what Rex Ryan did against Brady and the Pats on defense over the last couple of years in Baltimore, you look at a decent NYJ defense coupled with a renewed offense and I don't know. I just don't like betting on Sanchez against that NE secondary. I think I may stay away from this one....

alukk · 09-16-09, 10:46 PM

i like em all exept kc, i think the raiders have a chance

Saluki09 · 09-17-09, 02:44 AM

Love NE -4 and Pitt -3, those are my two plays this weekend

Danskeren · 09-17-09, 07:33 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

You know, thats the game I just finished looking at a little stronger, and my gut says NE, and that 3 points doesn't look like much. Brady and company isn't going to be happy coming off that Buffalo game.

but looking at what Rex Ryan did against Brady and the Pats on defense over the last couple of years in Baltimore, you look at a decent NYJ defense coupled with a renewed offense and I don't know. I just don't like betting on Sanchez against that NE secondary. I think I may stay away from this one....

Jets D was a lot more than decent holding Houston to only 183 total yards.

BGboothA · 09-17-09, 08:36 AM

Originally posted by Danskeren

Jets D was a lot more than decent holding Houston to only 183 total yards.

Agreed! I am no longer looking at that game...

Totolover1409 · 09-17-09, 01:59 PM

BG, what do you say on the Cleveland Denver game. I have never put my money on Kyle Orten, and never will. Pretty sure Denver rush D was one of the worst in the NFL last season. Also, although Jamal Lewis is 30 years young, I think Browns run game will pound the Denver.

jerseykingpin · 09-17-09, 02:33 PM

I wouldnt touch the NE/JETS game even if I knew who was going to win one bad play one good hit the sides can switch that quick on this game I

Limey · 09-19-09, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

BG, what do you say on the Cleveland Denver game. I have never put my money on Kyle Orten, and never will. Pretty sure Denver rush D was one of the worst in the NFL last season. Also, although Jamal Lewis is 30 years young, I think Browns run game will pound the Denver.

Orton is 22-12 as an NFL starter, straight up. I can't find his career ATS record, sadly.

BGboothA · 09-19-09, 10:54 PM

I am staying away from the Denver / Cleveland game, so many unknowns there. I think Denver gets the edge since they are at home. Marshall is a headache....Edwards is a headache. Denver RB situation is a headache...Cleveland RB situation is an old headache. Orton is question mark...Quinn is a question mark.

I think CLE +3.5 would be the play I would choose if I had to, but I will have ZERO money on this game.

BGboothA · 09-19-09, 11:40 PM

Seattle Seahawks ML & Seahawks @ Niners OVER 39.5
I got a ML early in the week of +115, you aren't going to find that now. If you can't get better than +105 take the +1.5. I don't see this game being that close. The Hawks defense looked great last week at home, and I know they play alot worse on the road. The Seahawks have a history of laying eggs on the road, however, the one exception is in Frisco. The Hawks are 5-1 in their last 6 game in SF. The hawks are missing Leroy Hill at LB and I don't expect Seattle's D to shut out the Niners like they did the Rams. But the SF 49ers offense still doesn't belong in the same sentence as a healthy Seattle offense. Hasselbeck isn't hurt YET! This game can't be capped using thoughts of Seattle from last season. The hawks won't have a hard time scoring in San Fransisco, the question is going to be if the Niners offense can keep up with the Seahawks offense and the answer is no. Shaun Hill throwing to Isaac Bruce, Josh Morgan and Vernon Davis are no match for the scoring potential of a healthy hasselbeck, Housh, Burleson and Carlson. Look for a high scoring game that ends with Seattle on top.
3 units on Seattle ML....2 units on OVER

Pittsburgh -2.5
Unfortunately I got this game at -3, and as well all know there is a big difference between -3 and -2.5. But I am still confident in the play. I wonder what the line would be if Polumalu was healthy and on the field against Cutler. However, lets remember that Pittsburgh isn't the only team in this matchup that is missing its superstar on defense. With Polumalu out I would still take Pitts defense over Chicago's defense. Big Ben or Cutler??? Give me Big Ben?? Holmes and Ward or Hester and Olsen?? Homes and Ward without question...Chicago has one thing going for them and thats Matt Forte who averaged barely over 2 yards a carry against GB last week. I just don't see this game being close, and if it is close, I don't see Chicago finding a way to win against Pittsburgh. I would feel a lot better if I got this at 2.5, but ohh well.
3 units on PIT -3

Kansas City -3
Alot of people around here are shocked at how well Oakland played against San Diego last Monday night, and they should be. There is no reason that Oakland should have been in that game. Watching that game, a few things were very visible. Jamarcus Russell has some serious arm strength with some serious issues regarding accuracy. San Diego wasn't able to exploit the many mistakes Russell made throughout the game. Oaklands Defense looked great, but a closer look at it, shows it was a very basic man defense that I think Bowe will be able to exploit better than some of the San Diego receivers where able to do. Take into account Kansas City is 10-2 against Oakland in the last 12 games, and 15-5 against Oakland in Kansas City over the last 20 years. I don't see this game being a blowout by the Kansas City offense, but I don't think Oakland hangs in as tough as they did last week. This Oakland team is a horrible team who played well above their level last week. Profit off their overrated potential this week as they lose by a touchdown in Kansas City.
2 Units on KC -3

New Orleans ML
I was lucky and got in on this before McNabb was announced out and got a +100 line, which is probably better than is out there now. (-105 is the best I see on SBRodds with 5dimes right now) Philly Defense played an amazing game against a horrible Jake Delhomme, they won't have that luxury against Brees this weekend. If Philly decides to blitz the Saints the same way they blitzed the Panthers look for Brees, Bush and Bell to have a great game dumping balls off on screens and short routes to Shockey. If you look at the game score from the Philly game, it looks like they scored 38 points, 14 of that was from the defense. Philly only managed 267 total yards of offense, that isn't enough to hang with the incredible scoring potential of the New Orleans offense. Add to the fact that Kevin Kolb is going to have to manage the Philly offense, this game is easy to ignore Philly's home field advantage and take the Pk'em with New Orleans. I was leaning on the OVER, simple fact is that New Orleans has the potential to put up 46 by themselves, I am just not sure many points Kevin Kolb and the Eagles are going to score.
2 units on NO ML

Jacksonville Jaguars -3
Autoplay for me here, any team travelling from Pacific Time Zone to Eastern, playing an early game receiving less than or equal to 3 points requires an auto fade.
1 Unit on JAX -3

As always let me know what you think and good luck to all.