(9/20-9/21) GiveMeaBJ's NFL Week 2 (6-3 +5.47 Units)

GiveMeaBJ · 09-15-09, 03:37 AM

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 (-109 Matchbook) to win 2 Units
Also like this play a lot. The Bills looked solid on Monday night but really played a bit over their heads. The offense really didn't generate much, they had the pick six for Aaron Schobel and had the refs not called roughing the passer on the Adalius Thomas sack they would have scored just 10 points. The Bucs also weren't too good but a lot of positives can be taken out of that game for the Bucs. Carnell Williams ran hard and looked even better then his old form against a solid Cowboy defense. Byron Leftwhich threw no picks and threw the ball well and with some zip. The Bucs were victimized by the big play, other then that there weren't really drives where the Bucs defense got outplayed down the field. The Bills clearly don't have the same big play capability as the Cowboys so I am not expecting another 30+ points allowed. In fact I think this one will be a very tough defensive game and 5 points is alot to lay in a game like that. I think the Bucs are the better team and the Bills can possibly end the season with something like 2-3 wins.
Bucs 16, Bills 13

Smogs · 09-15-09, 07:23 AM

Definitely agree with your GB pick, both the side and the total

GiveMeaBJ · 09-15-09, 02:21 PM

New England Patriots -5 (-109 Matchbook) to win 2 Units
The Patriots got off to a very, very slow start on Monday. It had a lot to do with the playcalling in my opinion. Stephen Gostowski missed a FG, however the 3rd and 4th nd short playcalling was pretty bad. They kept calling the same draw play and it kept getting stuffed by the Bills front. Thats not the Patriots. The Patriots would line up with 4 WR's and hit a quick pass over them middle to somebody and keep the drive alive. However, in the second half they opened up the passing game quite a bit and you saw them move the ball very well. Brady missed a few throws and Welker and Moss also dropped a few passes but overall I think it was a great comeback for Tom Brady. Another guy who also looked very strong was Laurence Maroney. He ran hard and was very tough to take down, I think he gets the ball a bit more against the Jets here. The defense of the Pats also played well. Take away the pick six and that roughing the passer sack by Adalius Thomas and the Bills score 10 points.

The Jets looked very good against the Texans on both sides of the ball however Mark Sanchez will have to go against a very complex New England scheme. It's very tough for a rookie QB to beat a Belichik scheme. On top of that New England has covered every meeting against the Jets at Giants Stadium since the Brady era. As good as Sanchez looked I think we see him look a bit confused in this game and I think we see more of the 2nd half Patriots offense that threw the ball a bit more.
Patriots 26, Jets 13

Danskeren · 09-15-09, 04:08 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

New England Patriots -5 (-109 Matchbook) to win 2 Units
The Patriots got off to a very, very slow start on Monday. It had a lot to do with the playcalling in my opinion. Stephen Gostowski missed a FG, however the 3rd and 4th nd short playcalling was pretty bad. They kept calling the same draw play and it kept getting stuffed by the Bills front. Thats not the Patriots. The Patriots would line up with 4 WR's and hit a quick pass over them middle to somebody and keep the drive alive. However, in the second half they opened up the passing game quite a bit and you saw them move the ball very well. Brady missed a few throws and Welker and Moss also dropped a few passes but overall I think it was a great comeback for Tom Brady. Another guy who also looked very strong was Laurence Maroney. He ran hard and was very tough to take down, I think he gets the ball a bit more against the Jets here. The defense of the Pats also played well. Take away the pick six and that roughing the passer sack by Adalius Thomas and the Bills score 10 points.

The Jets looked very good against the Texans on both sides of the ball however Mark Sanchez will have to go against a very complex New England scheme. It's very tough for a rookie QB to beat a Belichik scheme. On top of that New England has covered every meeting against the Jets at Giants Stadium since the Brady era. As good as Sanchez looked I think we see him look a bit confused in this game and I think we see more of the 2nd half Patriots offense that threw the ball a bit more.
Patriots 26, Jets 13

I don't think Pat's defense did as good, as you speak off. In my opinion they did not bring the presure, and gave Bills too much time. However i agree with you on Brady's positive comeback.

Good luck.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-15-09, 04:49 PM

Originally posted by Danskeren

I don't think Pat's defense did as good, as you speak off. In my opinion they did not bring the presure, and gave Bills too much time. However i agree with you on Brady's positive comeback.

Good luck.

Interesting, I felt like Vince Wilfork and the Patriots defensive line played one hell of a game. Fred Jackson carried 15 times for 57 yards (3.8 ypc) take out that 16 yard run and the rest of his runs were 14 carries for 41 yards (2.9 ypc). They got 4 sacks and 7 QB hits (5 sacks if you include the penalty on Adalius Thomas). Also, the Bills didn't run all that many plays. Good luck to you as well.

Danskeren · 09-15-09, 05:01 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Interesting, I felt like Vince Wilfork and the Patriots defensive line played one hell of a game. Fred Jackson carried 15 times for 57 yards (3.8 ypc) take out that 16 yard run and the rest of his runs were 14 carries for 41 yards (2.9 ypc). They got 4 sacks and 7 QB hits (5 sacks if you include the penalty on Adalius Thomas). Also, the Bills didn't run all that many plays. Good luck to you as well.

Hill is a terrible QB, and he still managed to play a fair game. If the Pats could have gotten some more presure on him, the whole Bills Ofensive would'nt have gained half the yards they did. Dont remember the pats D-line was up against a Rookie O-line.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-15-09, 05:04 PM

Edwards really isn't as bad as people say he is. He is just a different breed of QB. He makes mostly good descisions and manages the game. He won't win you games throwing for 350 yards and 4 scores but I would take him over a handful of NFL starters. Yes the Bills o-line is extremley young and inexperienced but I felt like they showed me what I need to see that proved they can be just as successful without Richard Seymour.

Danskeren · 09-15-09, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

Edwards really isn't as bad as people say he is. He is just a different breed of QB. He makes mostly good descisions and manages the game. He won't win you games throwing for 350 yards and 4 scores but I would take him over a handful of NFL starters. Yes the Bills o-line is extremley young and inexperienced but I felt like they showed me what I need to see that proved they can be just as successful without Richard Seymour.

Don't think we can agree upon this subject, which actually is completely irrelevant - always nice to exchange point of views.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-15-09, 05:28 PM

Originally posted by Danskeren

Don't think we can agree upon this subject, which actually is completely irrelevant - always nice to exchange point of views.

Yup, agree to disagree. Enjoy the back and forth debate though. Makes you look at both sides of the argument.

GL Sunday

GiveMeaBJ · 09-16-09, 03:22 PM

New York Giants +3 (5 Dimes) to win 2 Units
The Giants and Cowboys both won thier week one games however, I thought one looked really impressive and the other really had a couple of breaks that inflated the score a bit. The Giants absolutley dominated the Redskins, that score easily could have been a 34-3 game. The Giants went 0/3 in the red zone and when you have 5 3rd/4th down and 2 yards or less with Brandon Jacobs in the backfield you expect to get three to four of those. The Giants got none. The Giants didn't get a call all game (no personal foul when Jacobs is thrown down after play and a blatant face mask on a lost fumble by Eli Manning) yet still ran out to a 17-3 lead. Then a fake FG for a touchdown and a garbage TD made it a 23-17 final. The defense looked great, got a ton of pressure, covered well and made big plays. Doesn't look like they miss Steve Spags and they looked they ran the same defense.

The Cowboys were really reeling until they got an illegal shift penalty negating a Bucs play that would have put them on the two. They blocked the ensuing field goal and got a few long pass plays that were more a result of bad defense then a reciever making a play. After that the Cowboys inflated the score and went on to an easy win. Tony Romo did look very good but I wasn't overly impressed with Marion Barber even those his numbers indicated a solid day.

The Giants have a real advantage in the running game. The Cowboys gave up 170 rushing yards to the Bucs and now have to face Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw who should take advantage running inside the tackles against an inside front that I think is overmatched by one of the best G-C-G combos in the league. Eli Manning looked solid on Sunday and take away run throw I think he really had a great day. He made some big conversions for his team and he looked in sync with his young receivers.

The key to this game is going to be whether or not the Cowboys can block the Giants pressure. The Giants defensive line is crazy deep; Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwinuka, Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty, Fred Robbins, Barry Cofield, and Dave Toleffson really are all players the Giants feel comfortable giving significant time to. Rotating them in and out keeps them all fresh and gives them an advantage against the Cowboys o-line. I think the Giants pressure will be able to get to Romo which will force some bad throws and take some pressure off of the defensive backs.

I'm expecting a big game from Eli Manning and a big game from Tony Romo. However, when it comes down to it the Giants defensive pressure and running game will be too much for the Cowboys to handle. This one will probably be close but I am very confident the Giants keep this one close and win it.
Giants 31, Cowboys 27

Saluki09 · 09-16-09, 03:43 PM

In the Packers Bengals I have the Under 42. I see the Bengals being held to single digits. The Packers defense looked very good against Forte and the Bears offense. That 3-4 defense looks impressive with Matthews, Kampman, Barnett, and Hawk. The Packers offensive line looked like a weak point for the Pack. Ogunleye had 2 out of the teams 4 sacks. I dont see Ryan Grant doing much, but the Pack will put up points. Packers 28 Bengals 9, I like the Under 42...

GiveMeaBJ · 09-16-09, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by Saluki09

In the Packers Bengals I have the Under 42. I see the Bengals being held to single digits. The Packers defense looked very good against Forte and the Bears offense. That 3-4 defense looks impressive with Matthews, Kampman, Barnett, and Hawk. The Packers offensive line looked like a weak point for the Pack. Ogunleye had 2 out of the teams 4 sacks. I dont see Ryan Grant doing much, but the Pack will put up points. Packers 28 Bengals 9, I like the Under 42...

All valid points. I am extremley high on the Packers this year, especially their defense. I think the Bengals offense was good despite scoring just 7 points. Carson Palmer had a couple bad throws but also quite a few dropped balls that I think will be caught this week. The Bengals actually managed to run the ball with some success. I think the Packers put up a lot of points, wouldn't be surprised if they got into the 40's themselves. I'm expecting 30+ for sure. With a team scoring 30+ and the other with a QB as good as Palmer I have to take the over. Good luck on it. I guess it will depend on how many the Bengals can get. The Bengals got into Bronco territory in 8 drives Sunday and came away with just one touchdown.

Danskeren · 09-16-09, 03:57 PM

Originally posted by GiveMeaBJ

New York Giants +3 (5 Dimes) to win 2 Units
The Giants and Cowboys both won thier week one games however, I thought one looked really impressive and the other really had a couple of breaks that inflated the score a bit. The Giants absolutley dominated the Redskins, that score easily could have been a 34-3 game. The Giants went 0/3 in the red zone and when you have 5 3rd/4th down and 2 yards or less with Brandon Jacobs in the backfield you expect to get three to four of those. The Giants got none. The Giants didn't get a call all game (no personal foul when Jacobs is thrown down after play and a blatant face mask on a lost fumble by Eli Manning) yet still ran out to a 17-3 lead. Then a fake FG for a touchdown and a garbage TD made it a 23-17 final. The defense looked great, got a ton of pressure, covered well and made big plays. Doesn't look like they miss Steve Spags and they looked they ran the same defense.

The Cowboys were really reeling until they got an illegal shift penalty negating a Bucs play that would have put them on the two. They blocked the ensuing field goal and got a few long pass plays that were more a result of bad defense then a reciever making a play. After that the Cowboys inflated the score and went on to an easy win. Tony Romo did look very good but I wasn't overly impressed with Marion Barber even those his numbers indicated a solid day.

The Giants have a real advantage in the running game. The Cowboys gave up 170 rushing yards to the Bucs and now have to face Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw who should take advantage running inside the tackles against an inside front that I think is overmatched by one of the best G-C-G combos in the league. Eli Manning looked solid on Sunday and take away run throw I think he really had a great day. He made some big conversions for his team and he looked in sync with his young receivers.

The key to this game is going to be whether or not the Cowboys can block the Giants pressure. The Giants defensive line is crazy deep; Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, Mathias Kiwinuka, Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty, Fred Robbins, Barry Cofield, and Dave Toleffson really are all players the Giants feel comfortable giving significant time to. Rotating them in and out keeps them all fresh and gives them an advantage against the Cowboys o-line. I think the Giants pressure will be able to get to Romo which will force some bad throws and take some pressure off of the defensive backs.

I'm expecting a big game from Eli Manning and a big game from Tony Romo. However, when it comes down to it the Giants defensive pressure and running game will be too much for the Cowboys to handle. This one will probably be close but I am very confident the Giants keep this one close and win it.
Giants 31, Cowboys 27

I fully agree with you on this one!
Great writeup by the way.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-16-09, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by Danskeren

I fully agree with you on this one!
Great writeup by the way.

Thanks man, glad you got something out of it. Good luck this week.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 02:07 PM

Carolina Panthers +7 (-120) to win 2 Units
I like this spot in this game. No one believes in the Panthers despite their 12-4 record last year and everyone is buying into the Falcons this year. While I am relativley high on the Falcons as well I don't think they warrant being a 7 point favorite over a division rival with a team as talented as the Panthers. The Falcons dominated the Dolphins last week yet only won by a 19-7 score. During that game one thing stood out to me as perhaps the Falcons fatal flaw. Their pass defense looked extremley unimpressive in Week 1. They got lucky because the Dolphins don't have the receivers, quarterback, or team outlook to take advantage of it but I think the aerial attack can really hurt the Falcons in this one. To do that the Panthers will need a solid effort for Jake Delhomme. I know, I know, you can call Jake terrible and all that but the facts remain he is 50-30 as a starter and has taken his team to a Super Bowl which they could have won. I think it works in Jake's favor being on the road in Atlanta. Rather then being booed if he throws a pick he will be cheered and cheering is something he has heard in quite a while. I think he will be more relaxed and I think John Fox and the Panthers know they need this game or can kiss Jake's confidence and this season goodbye. Expect a lot of shorter passes and high completion throws early on easing the defense (and Jake) into the deep balls to Steve Smith. Last year vs Atlanta he went 3 touchdowns 0 ints and a 109 QB rating. Everyone is counting Carolina out, not me. I think the Panthers get the outright win.
Panthers 27, Falcons 24

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 03:54 PM

San Francisco 49ers PK (-125) to win 2 Units
As I stated last week I love the 49ers this year and can't say enough about Mike Singletary and what he has turned this team into. They are an old school team playing tough football and I think the sky is the limit for the 49ers this year. The Seahawks are another team I am high but they didnt look great in a 28-0 win against the awful Rams. Matt Hasslebeck struggled early on and they turned the ball over three times in the first four possesions. They lucked out that the team going against them was the Rams. Other teams probably would have put them in a 21-0 hole they would have struggled to get out of. The Seahawks ran the ball very well for 4.9 yards per carry on Sunday but they are going against a great front seven for the 49ers. Patrick Willis is the heart and soul of a front seven that gave up just 2.4 yards per carry to the Cardinals. I think the Seahawks will be forced to throw the football if they want to have any success on offense and I don't think that bodes well for Seattle. The 49ers have physical corners that will frustrate the Seattle receivers and I don't think they will have much success getting open down the field. Not to mention the pressure the 49ers should be able to bring on a Seattle O-line that is again without Walter Jones. That means a lot of the Seahawks passing game will fall on the shoulders of TE John Carlson. However, another bad matchup here as he will most likely have to deal with the athleticism of Patrick Willis for most of the day.

The key for this 49ers offense will be to hold on to the football. No turnovers, run the ball with Gore and have Shaun Hill be a "game-manager". Last week he managed to not throw any picks but didn't look great in doing so. He was inaccurate on several passes and still struggles throwing with accuracy down the field. The 49ers only ran for 0.8 yards per carry, yes your reading that right, but lets face it, that number just won't stick. Gore ran for over 4 yards per carry against the Seahawks last year in two games and ran for over 5 yards per carry against the Seahawks in 2007. I think the 49ers will take this with more solid defense and a ball control based offense. It won't be pretty but they will get it done.
49ers 22, Seahawks 16

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-09, 03:57 PM

That leaves my card at:
San Francisco 49ers PK (-125) to win 2 Units
Carolina Panthers +7 (-120) to win 2 Units
New York Giants +3 (-110) to win 2 Units
New England Patriots -5 (-109) to win 2 Units
Tampa Bay Bucs +5 (-109) to win 2 Units
Packers/Bengals Over 41 (-126) to win 2 Units

Can't believe how bad I misread where that Patriots line would go. Will be adding plays throughout the weekend as I make them.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-19-09, 01:55 AM

Philadelphia Eagles +1 (-107) to win 2 Units
Baltimore Ravens +3 (-105) to win 2 Units
Chicago Bears +3 (-115) to win 2 Units
Detroit Lions +10.5 (-120) to win 2 Units

GiveMeaBJ · 09-20-09, 01:50 AM

Denver Broncos -3 (-110) to win 1 Unit

2daBank · 09-20-09, 02:31 AM

think my card look almost exactly like that without the gb/cin over was really leaning other way on that 1 and i have no clue on the den/cle gm i just skipped right da hell over that 1 how you cap those teams?also like the ov ca/atl 42, arz/jax und43, and was/stl und37.5. good luck on all your plays and good write ups

GiveMeaBJ · 09-20-09, 04:35 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

think my card look almost exactly like that without the gb/cin over was really leaning other way on that 1 and i have no clue on the den/cle gm i just skipped right da hell over that 1 how you cap those teams?also like the ov ca/atl 42, arz/jax und43, and was/stl und37.5. good luck on all your plays and good write ups

Agree with all your leans buddy and gl.

Adding these:
Chiefs -3 to win 1 Unit
Chiefs/Oak Under 38.5 to win 1 Unit
Oak Raiders 1Q +0.5 to win 1 Unit
TB Bucs 1Q +0.5 to win 1 Unit
Bal Ravens 1Q +0.5 to win 1 Unit
Chi Bears 1Q +0.5 to win 1 Unit

GiveMeaBJ · 09-20-09, 01:49 PM

2H Tenn/Hou Over 21 (-120) to win 2 Units

GiveMeaBJ · 09-21-09, 06:21 PM

Going with the Dolphins 1Q +0.5 (-130) for 2 Units and Over 41 for 2 Units. Then will look to add Dolphins in 2H if things pan out right.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-21-09, 09:10 PM

Dolphins +3 2H (-130) to win 3 Units