EP36's NFL Experience

Totolover1409 · 09-11-09, 12:19 PM

Sticking with the call on Carolina. They have moved from +1 to +3. Don't buy the Eagles hype. No Brian Dawkins, inconsistent McNabb, playing in Carolina.

Took this one at +1.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-13-09, 12:06 AM

Record: 0-1 (-1.13)

Play #2: Eagles/Panthers OVER 43.5 (+100)
I am not sold on the Eagles defense at all as they gave up a ton in preseason. Yes, it was preseason, but they are replacing Dawkins with Demps and trying to solve the riddle of who can replace Bradley at MLB. I think early in the season, the D will have some issues as they try to gel together with the new personnel and not having stalwart, Jim Johnson working the sidelines as the coordinator. Offensively, I think Philly can do some solid things and will need to score in the 20s to be competitive, until the D gets up to speed. Carolina should find some success with their running game & their passing attack may look to try Philly's DBs (especially the safeties). If the Eagles D struggles a bit like I think, then this game should play out into the 20s each or something along the lines of 28-17, 28-20 or so.

Play #3: Bengals/Broncos OVER 41 (-109)
Still think the Broncos defense is going to be a liability this season. Bengals actually have solid offensive personnel. If Benson gets running well early, that should open up Carson Palmer and the passing attack with Ocho Cinco. With the Bengals likely to score in the 20s IMO, that means Denver will have no choice but to try and keep pace. Orton will give it a go at QB and WR Brandon Marshall is expected to see time, which can only help. Expecting battered coach Josh McDaniels to pull out all the stops in his 1st game offensively and keep this game competitive. Think both defenses have holes and they should be exploited. Might be a rough start with Palmer having to get used to live game conditions again and Orton or maybe Simms working with injury, but in the end I think the scoring will be there.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-13-09, 11:50 AM

Switched in the Denver/Cincy game as my third play.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-13-09, 01:22 PM

Originally posted by Totolover1409

Sticking with the call on Carolina. They have moved from +1 to +3. Don't buy the Eagles hype. No Brian Dawkins, inconsistent McNabb, playing in Carolina. Took this one at +1.

Crushed. Eagles D forcing turnovers. Desean Jackson returning punts. Week 1 is looking good!

EaglesPhan36 · 09-13-09, 01:28 PM

Play #4: [2nd Half] Colts -3.5 (-105)
Colts need to finish their drives with points, not turnovers. They have moved the ball freely, but left points on the field.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-13-09, 02:47 PM

Play #2 Result: [W]
Play #3 Result: [L]
Play #4 Result: [L]

Overall: 1-3 (-2.27)

Frickin Colts one pisses me off the most because they missed a FG that would have covered the spread.

Play #5: Bears/Packers OVER 46.5 (-107)

Totolover1409 · 09-15-09, 02:11 PM

Never gonna bet on Carolina again.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-19-09, 11:38 PM

Overall: 1-4 (-3.34)
Solid start!

Play #6: Raiders +3 (-103)
The road team is definitely strong in this series, going 16-5-1 ATS in the last 22. In fact, the road team has won 5 straight. Oakland showesd some ability to run the ball and if they can do that, JaMarcus Russell can have some success against this KC team that gave up 300+ yards to BAL. This should be a close game throughout.

Play #7: Ravens/Chargers OVER 40 (-103)
Both teams threw the ball very well in Week 1. Flacco and the Ravens should take advantage of a SD defense that had trouble slowing down the Raiders both passing and running. SD shouldn't have troubles adjusting to life without LT again as they are more of a pass-first team now.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-20-09, 01:34 AM

Play #8: Saints/Eagles OVER 46 (-105)
Not scared of the Kevin Kolb start. The Saints D is leaky as they allowed a lot of points to the Lions. At worst, Kolb turns it over and sets up the Saints with some easy, short fields. Saints should do some decent things against a Philly D that drove Carolina crazy, but the Saints are built a different way.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-20-09, 04:47 PM

Play #9: [2nd Half] Buccaneers/Bills OVER 21 (-115)
Both teams moving the ball freely in the 1st half, Bucs mainly through the air and the Bills on the ground. Both teams have turned it over TB -2 INTs, Bills - 1 fumble, two of which led to scores. Lots of points left on the field still too. Edwards should start airing it out a bit more in the 2nd half as the Bucs D should be loosened up after Jackson gouged them for 97 yards in the 1st half. Evans & T.O. should find openings. Bucs likely will continue to let Leftwich throw it. 19 pass attempts in the 1st half, 13 rushes.

billyloco · 09-20-09, 04:55 PM

EP...looks like you are making a comeback!!

Mr Winters · 09-20-09, 05:05 PM

ff topic:

- People hang on his every word, even the prepositions.
- He can speak French, in German.
- He can disarm you with his looks, or his hands, either way. . .

EaglesPhan36 · 09-20-09, 07:06 PM

Should have swept these ones today. Bills putzed out late in the game and settled for a FG when they had gotten down to the Bucs 2 yard line. Oh well. Gonna be greedy.

Play #10: Jason Witten Total Receiving Yards OVER 65.5 (-115)
Chris Cooley worked the Giants for 68 yards on 7 catches in Week 1. Witten had 71 yards vs. TB in Week 1. Witten only played against the Giants once last year with 44 yards on 5 catches. During the previous season, they met three times including the playoffs with Witten passing tonight's total easily in 2 of 3. His best games came at home last season, we'll see if that translates to the new stadium. I'm expecting Witten to have a solid game as the safety valve when the Giants pressure Romo and just as a big target in the offense.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-21-09, 08:40 PM

Play #11: [Live Betting] Colts/Dolphins OVER 49 (+100)
Placed this with the score at 10-10. Sucka!

EaglesPhan36 · 09-27-09, 11:36 AM

OVERALL: 5-6 (-1.74)

WEEK 3
1. Jags/Texans OVER 46.5 (-115): The last four games in this series have featured a lot of points: 47, 57, 70 &54. Both defensives have had their struggles, so this could be a highlight reel offensively. The Texans should put it up through the air where JAX really struggled to contain Arizona last week. Through 2 games, the Jags are giving up about 280 yards per game through the air. They have been tough to run on, but Houston already knows they have issues running the rock. The Texans D has been thrashed for over 200 yards per game on the ground & by air. The Jags need to get bowling ball, Maurice Jones-Drew, revved up to help open up their passing game. Garrard threw for a lot of yards in Week 2, but that was necessary with the Cardinals up big for most of the game. The Jags have been turning it over frequently with 3 against Arizona & 2 in Week 1 against Indianapolis. The Texans shored up their TO problems last week, but still fumbled a few times. Turnovers could help set up some short fields in this one and help send it past the total.

2. Saints/Bills OVER 51 (-105): Saints are putting up over 40 ppg themselves. Buffalo is averaging a stout 28.5 ppg through 2. Buffalo has had troubles vs. the pass & so have the Saints. Saints will be without RB Mike Bell, so any thoughts of running will be brief. Buffalo likely would prefer to run the ball & chew up the clock, but so long as the Saints get out early - they'll be forced to use an effective passing game behind QB Trent Edwards and homerun hitters, Evans & T.O.

EaglesPhan36 · 09-28-09, 05:35 PM

3. Cowboys/Panthers OVER 47.5 (-115)

EaglesPhan36 · 10-04-09, 12:15 AM

OVERALL: 6-8 (-2.94)

WEEK 4
1. Raiders +9 (-120): Raiders have no offense, but a fairly solid D. Texans have the solid O, but little D. Turnovers figure to be a big story here. I think Oakland gets a few to set up some short fields and cash in on FGs because Russell & this offense couldn't find the end zone with a GPS.

2. Jets +7.5 (-115): Jets have been solid on both sides of the ball. New Orleans got a big defensive effort against the Bills, but that was the Bills. Sanchez may have to do more than he has to this point since the Saints still figure to score, but I think Ryan's defensive schemes will cause some mistakes and keep it close.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-04-09, 11:38 AM

3. Seahawks/Colts OVER 43.5 (-102): The Colts offense should continue to roll up big numbers against a Seattle team that has surrendered 48 points in the last two weeks against the Bears & 49ers. Indy has put up 59 points in that same span, so I expect that they will once more have a shot at putting up a number in the high 20s or possibly, low 30s. Seattle for their part showed that even with Wallace at QB, they can still have some success as they scored 19 points last week vs. CHI in his 1st start this season. Their aerial attack is accounting for 246 yards per game and their rushing attack could find some holes against a mediocre Colts rush D. Wallace has thrown 2 picks in his two appearances this season, so they could play a role with short fields for the Colts too.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-05-09, 05:39 PM

4. Packers/Vikings OVER 46 (-110)
Hoping to get a split for the weekend with this. GB's last two games have featured totals landing in the 50s. That includes giving up 17 points to a hapless Rams' squad. Vikings haven't scored less than 27 points in any of their first 3 games. Their rushing attack should find success against GB, which I expect should open Favre up to whip a couple of big plays in the passing game. The Pack figures to have trouble finding running room, so Aaron Rodgers and the WRs will be the ones needing to do the damage points-wise I believe. Surprisingly, MIN has seen the opposition score in the 20s twice - be it do to turnovers or leaky pass D - so I think the Packers will have chances. I think the Vikes will get 24-31 points and the Pack should get close to 20 I believe. Hoping for something like 27-21, 28-20 or thereabouts.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-09, 11:26 AM

OVERALL: 8-10 (-3.29)

WEEK 5
1. Bengals/Ravens OVER 42 (-110): The Ravens are a different club from what most associate them with. It's the offense that's doing the job more often than not, averaging 31 ppg. With the exception of the game vs. offensively challenged Cleveland, the Ravens D has given up at least 23 points in each game. They are still stout against the run, but the aerial attacks of their opponents have been the killer. Cincy hasn't been stellar through the air, but this team has put up at least 23 points in three straight and yielded 20+ in the last 3. This one seems set for the Ravens to roll up a total in the high 20s meaning the Bengals will likely need 14-17 to finish this off.

2. Cardinals/Texans OVER 50.5 (-110): Not a lot to explain here. Both offenses can put up big numbers, mainly through the air. Houston has put up 87 points in the last 3 weeks. Houston is putting up 249 in the air per game where the Cards yield 280. Should be a big day for Schaub & A.Johnson. Arizona's numbers points-wise aren't big, but they have played quality defenses in Indianapolis & San Francisco in 2 of their 3 games. Still, their passing attack is averaging 274 ypg where the Texans give up 203 and an additional 160 on the ground. With the Texans giving up 24 points or worse in 3 of 4 weeks, the Cards should light it up for close to 30 or more. The Texans should also have success I believe and get 20+. The decisive factor will be how well these two perform in the red zone, need more TDs than FGs.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-09, 01:38 PM

3. [2nd Half] Lions/Steelers OVER 21.5 (-110)
Kind of surprised this # isn't larger. Been watching this one and PIT is pretty much moving the ball at-will against DET, both in the air and on the ground. They scored TDs on 3 of 5 possessions with one of those possession resulting in a Pick-6 for the Lions. The 5th drive ended at the half. DET moved the ball fairly well in the 1st Q against PIT, but had to settle for FGs when they stalled out. Beneficial for this OVER should be that DET will have to pass to move the ball. Culpepper has done a decent job with feet to gain yards and keep plays alive. Kevin Smith has no room to run and DET will have no chance to keep it close if they try to run him much more in the 2nd half. I think PIT is good for at least two more TDs in this game perhaps more. If DET can get a couple FGs or a TD, this should hit IMO.

JayC · 10-11-09, 01:45 PM

I like your Cardinals/Texans OVER pick. Been looking at that one all morning.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-11-09, 02:17 PM

Well that looks like my only chance to get one today. Would also guarantee that I beat the prick again if that one hits. Lions have missed a FG and threw a pick deep in Steelers territory. Should have had at least 13 pts on the board in the 2nd half at this point. Football just has not been good to me.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-17-09, 09:28 PM

OVERALL: 8-13 (-6.59)

WEEK 6
1. Texans/Bengals OVER 46 (-104)
I'll keep going against the pourous D of Houston each week until they prove they can stop someone. The Bengals have churned out points to the tune of 20 ppg. This could be the week where they break out though as the Texans have given up 24+ ppg in 4 of 5 this season. Cincy has yielded 14 or more in 4 straight and if Schaub gets protection, look for HOU to have some big plays in the passing game.

2. Eagles/Raiders OVER 40 (-105)
This is slated for another blowout. The Eagles three wins have all hit for 47 points or more and the loss to the Saints sky rocketed past those numbers. OAK has scored just 16 points in their last three games, but I think they will reach double digits vs. Philly here in garbage time. Eagles seem primed for another 30+ point outburst, leaving Oakland just needing to hit 10-14 to finish this off.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-18-09, 02:57 PM

Two weeks in a row with the damn Texans game, I get raped by a point. Last week the great goal-to-go situation where they couldn't score from the 1. This week, they're in FG position at worst, fumble and then Cincy drives for points potentially and they throw a f-ing pick. FG either time would have hit the over. Jesus.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-18-09, 04:53 PM