Smogs Football Thread

[Smogs]

I've had an 'English Football Thread' going for a while now and this is my first full season betting and watching NFL.
I'll keep this going until i run out of money but i am trying to keep the same money management strategy that has helped me in the soccer forum so i'll start with 100 units and see what happens


Firstly the all important Ante-Post bets:

Jacksonville Under 8 2.5 Units
Washington Under 8 1.5 Units
Oakland Under 5.5 - 1.5 Units
Pittsburgh over 10.5 1 Unit

Indianapolis to Win Division @ 7/5 2.5 Units
Now Orleans to win Division @ 7/4 1.5 Units

And for tonight's opener, i am going with the Under 35.5 @ 10/11 - 1 Unit

[Smogs]

Bet 1 wins after a 13-10 PittsBurgh win which also helps my ante post bet on their win total

Record 1-0-0 +0.9 Units

[Smogs]

Bet #2 Atlanta -4 1.5 Units

Bet #3 NO/Detroit Over 49 1.5 Units

Bet #4 Giants -6.5 1.5 Units

[Smogs]

Since i have won both the early games i am leaving off Giants and taking my 2-0 tasty profit.

Record 3-0 +3.7 Units

[Smogs]

Hopefully going to end the weekend's football with a 4th win in a row. This is just a unit because i'm not totally confident on it but it certainly holds the value.......

NE/Buffalo Under 47.5 1 UNIT

[diogee]

Good luck Smogs. I'm on the under as well. Nice start.

[Smogs]

The under was certainly the right call, and had the best value to it. Just got screwed by some horrific choices made by both defences, especially in that 4th quarter. Ah well.

Record 3-1 +2.7 Units

[The HOFF]

Nice start Smogs.

[diogee]

The under was certainly the right call, and had the best value to it. Just got screwed by some horrific choices made by both defences, especially in that 4th quarter. Ah well.

Record 3-1 +2.7 Units

Yeah it was 100% the correct call...cashes 99% of the time with how it looked with a few minutes left. Just a horrible fluke loss. You'll get it back.

[Smogs]

Thanks Hoff and Diogee, we will certainly get it back.

[Smogs]

Ok, i have looked at the lines for this weekend and there are a couple i like and i am raising the stakes a little.

Bet #5 - GB/Bengals Over 42 @ -110 2 Units

Bet #6 - Atl/Car Over 43 @ -110 2 units

Bet #7 - NY Jets/NE Pats Under 46.5 @ -110 2 Units

Bet #8 - GB -9 and NE Pats -3.5 @ +260 1 Unit

[Smogs]

Ok, i have looked at the lines for this weekend and there are a couple i like and i am raising the stakes a little.

Bet #5 - GB/Bengals Over 42 @ -110 2 Units WIN

Bet #6 - Atl/Car Over 43 @ -110 2 units WIN

Bet #7 - NY Jets/NE Pats Under 46.5 @ -110 2 Units WIN

Bet #8 - GB -9 and NE Pats -3.5 @ +260 1 UnitLoss

A very good weekend for me,

3-1 +4.5 Units

[Smogs]

This weekend i have one single pick,
Over 41 between STL/GB - 3.3 Units to win 3 Units

[Smogs]

This weekend i have one single pick,
Over 41 between STL/GB - 3.3 Units to win 3 Units

Quietly going about my business here with another win, the biggest of the year for me so far.

3 UNIT WIN

Record is 7-2 + 10.2 Units (15.3 Risked)

[Smogs]

Today, after getting screwed to the tune of 8 units this weekend in Soccer, i am heading into the NFL looking to turn it around.

2 Units Colts -10
2 Units Bears -9.5 (RLM )
2 Units Pats -1
2 Units Titans -3

Praying for a good one

[Smogs]

Adding 5 Unit Double on Colts/Bears ML to win 2 Units

[Smogs]

I'll update the scores later but i'm adding 1 Unit on SF/STL Under 36.5

Today has been amazing so far.....except for soccer, that F*cked me up

[Smogs]

Today, after getting screwed to the tune of 8 units this weekend in Soccer, i am heading into the NFL looking to turn it around.

2 Units Colts -10 WIN
2 Units Bears -9.5 (RLM ) WIN
2 Units Pats -1 WIN
2 Units Titans -3 LOSS

Praying for a good one

Adding 5 Unit Double on Colts/Bears ML to win 2 Units

WIN

I'll update the scores later but i'm adding 1 Unit on SF/STL Under 36.5 WIN

Today has been amazing so far.....except for soccer, that F*cked me up

Wow, i go 0-3 -6 Units on soccer today, -7.55 Units on the weekend, and then...............

5-1 +6.3 Units in the NFL, absolutely saved me and now i look forward to next week, hell no am i playing MNF, although i love Green Bay +4.
Taking my overall loss and hanging fire till next week

[Smogs]

Just placed the one 1pm est bet and that is:

Washington +5.5 for 1.1 Unit to win 1 Unit

I'll have some 4pm est games bet on but just going to see how this goes first before i commit

[Smogs]

Two 4pm est games i'm playing on:

Houston @ Arizona Over 50.5 2.2 Units to win 2 Units

NE @ Denver Under 41 1.1 Units to win 1 Units

[Smogs]

*Adding:

Atlanta @ SF 49ers Under 20 1st Half 1.05 Units to win 1 Unit

[Smogs]

Just placed the one 1pm est bet and that is:

Washington +5.5 for 1.1 Unit to win 1 Unit

I'll have some 4pm est games bet on but just going to see how this goes first before i commit

*Adding:

Atlanta @ SF 49ers Under 20 1st Half 1.05 Units to win 1 Unit

1-1 -0.05 Units

[Smogs]

After i fall short with my 4pm games (i'm looking at another 1.5ish unit loss) i am making a play for the late game.

Indy Colts -3 @ 4/5 for 2 Units

[Wilforth]

Smogs,

The Colts line is fishy. It dropped from Indi -3.5 (-110) to Indi -3 (-130). I don't get that. I think Indi +3 is the smart play.

[Smogs]

It is dam late in England so i'm going to quickly post up my MNF pick and record so far this weekend (if, somehow the Colts lose, i will eat my words and correct the record)

3-2 +0.55 Units Not as successful as previous weeks but that is 5 consecutive winning weeks for me now.

The MNF Pick is Jets -1.5, 2.2 Units to win 2 Units

[Smogs]

Wilforth - i didn't want to read too much into the line, the Titans are just so much worse and Manning threw over 300 yards, as expected. i think sometimes there are 'chicken dinners' and tonight was one of them. People who picked the Titans, i am sure, were reading too much into the soft line and held a 'they're due a win' mentality.
Onto the Jets tomorrow

[Smogs]

*Upping the Jets Play to 3.3 Units to win 3

[Smogs]

*And popping on 2.2 Units on the Under 36 to win 2 Units

[diogee]

Looks like you are still doing well...nice record Smogs.

[Smogs]

Thanks diogee, sadly it was a game too much and i lost 5.5 units today. Got it all badly wrong

[diogee]

Can't win em all...you'll get it back.

[Smogs]

This week i am being more selective and getting this one in early before the line jumps, which i'm hoping it will to justify the strength of this play.

Green Bay/Detroit Over 48 4.4 Units

Green Bay is going to have a positive o/u record this year, they have a high power offense led by Rodgers and backed up by the trio of Driver, Jennings and Grant on the ground. They are 3-1 to the over this year and only one of those games they have had was, what i would consider, against a bad defensive team. That was away at St Louis and with Rodgers looking very solid - 101 passer rating - i can see him posting massive numbers against this team.
Last years yardages totalled nearly 1600 yards over the two games, with 1200 yards being thrown. That tells its own story and i am hoping that Stafford is fit for this game. As of tuesday he was listed probable but he would suit the over in this game. Plenty of yards thrown but he loves getting picked off. A 3td/6int record, 65.9 rtg would lead itself to a high yardage game with plenty of long passes and possible pick 6's.

GB average 26 pts a game, Detroit 20.6. GB average 23.2 conceded while Det average 26.
Finally - Over is 5-0 for GB as a fav of 10.5 or more.
Over is 44-19-2 last 65 vs a losing team. I think these two are important because together it strongly points towards high scoring game at Lambeau when playing bad teams.
4-0 over last 4 meeting s also :wink:

Good luck, my strongest pick since the GB over 41 at St Louis a couple weeks back.
Don't be put off by the high total, it's because it has taken the Bookies 5 weeks to catch up to the high numbers GB will post in their games this year

[Smogs]

*Additional plays -

Seattle -3 3U
Green Bay -14 2.2U
Wash/KC Under 37 2.2U

*GB/Det Over 47.5 is now only 2.2U because of losing Johnson and Stafford to injury

[Smogs]

Houston Texans +4, really wish i'd got the 5.5 spread 3 hours ago but worth a shot tbh

1.9 Units @10/11

[Smogs]

Dam that Houston line is dropping like a brick, now 3.5

Adding Baltimore ML 2U to win 2.7 Units