Ok, well the NFL is right around the corner. I will leave the College Football capping to Pags who is a well known successfull capper and i will be tailing him for the season. Meanwhile, the NFL is where i will commit all of my time in capping. I use several different statistical data trends and i should say none these specific statistical data trends are below a 63% win rate each year since 2003 and a few are above the 70% mark. Each category will provide a different amount of plays and each will start at different parts of the year. For instance i have some data for week 1 only and some data for games proceeding a bye week. I will separate the record for each so you can get a idea how each statistical category performs throught the year. There will also be a category for totals at different times of the year. Good luck and my first play(s) will be the prime time game on thursday and it will be posted sometime today.
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All of the plays are a flat amount of risk $110.00 of favs and win $100.00 on dogs. to keep the record tracking easier. Play them for as much as you would like to.Comment -
All plays will be posted 1 day before game day.Comment -
Thursday Night Games (Favorites are 20-5-1, 80% ATS L3 years on Thursday night)
Thursday, 09/10
Play: Pittsburgh -6 (-110)
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0Comment -
i will post Sunday plays as i get to them in their appropriate data categoryComment -
Super Bowl Loser is 0-9 ATS L9 years in their first regular season game following their loss.
Sunday, 09/13
Play: San Francisco +6.5 (-110)
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0
SB Loser Trend: 0-0Comment -
Underdogs of 10 or more points were 21-11, 66% ATS last season and 16-2, 89% the first 11 weeks of last season. Included in that underdogs of 14 or more points were 7-3, 70% ATS Last season. This was a great data trend that was sustained for the entire season last year.
Sunday, 09/13
Play: Kansas City +13 (-110)
Play: Detroit +13 (-110)
Play: Buffalo +11 (-110)
Oakland is a possibility if they stay at +10 I will edit this post and add them if they become a play.
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0
SB Loser Trend: 0-0
Underdog >10 Trend: 0-0Comment -
Bye Week Data will start in week #5.Comment -
Week #1 ONLY: Play UNDER all lines that are 44 or higher. (7-22 O/U, 76% UNDER since 2003)
In 2008-2009 season this UNDER trend was 12-1. The only loss came from a total of exactly 44.
Sunday, 09/13
Play: NY/Hou UNDER 44 (-110)
Play: Jax/Indy UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Play: Det/NO UNDER 48.5 (-110)
Play: SF/AZ UNDER 46 (-110)
Play: Chi/GB UNDER 46 (-110)
Play: Buff/NE UNDER 47 (-110)
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0
SB Loser Trend: 0-0
Underdog >10 Trend: 0-0
UNDER 44 Week #1 Trend: 0-0Comment -
this is a great example of taking trends and seeing if they can be useful being tracked forward. great work snapstick, i'll be curious to see how this turns out for you. i wish you the best2011 NFL: 4-0 ATS
2010 NFL: 21-31 ATS (Stopped after Week 12)
2009 NFL: 55-30-1 ATS
2008 NFL: 57-36-2 ATS
Overall: 137-97-3 ATSComment -
snap, i love where your head is at! i've been looking for trends like this online and find that different sites give different %'s. where did u get your numbers?Comment -
I retrieved the back game results from other forums and i retrieved the specific trends from various other sites that provide many different trends and stats.
I have other trend data but they do not qualify for week #1 in the NFL. They include:
Favs/Dogs games proceeding bye weeks, Prime Time (Thursday night games, Saturday games, Sunday night games and Monday night games, sides and totals)
Selective specific team trends
NFC vs. AFC trend data
and much more. These data trends are backtested back 3 years and some since 2003. Some are very strong trends as in my first play on Thursday night. Feel free to ask any questions and chime in with any comments.Comment -
I will update my Tracking Record as i develope the strong data trends.
Update:
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0
SB Loser Trend: 0-0
Underdog >10 Trend: 0-0
UNDER 44 Week #1 Trend: 0-0
Favorites Following Bye Week: 0-0
Buffalo Bills Game Proceeding the Miami Dolphins: 0-0
Thanksgiving Day Favorites: 0-0
I have found some huge data trends for the week of Thanksgiving that are undefeated L3 years.Comment -
Teams that have a perfect pre-season record of 4-0 are 2-8, 20% ATS and 3-7, 30% SU in the regular season game #1 L6 years. 3 teams (Miami, Baltimore, Seattle) were a perfect 4-0 this pre-season so we will play against them ATS in week #1 only. Kansas City, who plays Baltimore in week #1 was already listed in a data trend play in post #7 so this just makes them a stronger play.
Sunday, 09/13
Atlanta -4 (-110)
Kansas City +13 (-110)
St. Louis +8.5 (-110)
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0
SB Loser Trend: 0-0
Underdog >10 Trend: 0-0
UNDER 44 Week #1 Trend: 0-0
Favorites Following Bye Week: 0-0
Buffalo Bills Game Proceeding the Miami Dolphins: 0-0
Thanksgiving Day Favorites: 0-0
Play Against Teams ATS Who Were 4-0 In Pre-Season: 0-0Comment -
At the conclusion of all of my posted plays i will post a summary of all plays in one post so you dont have to surf through to find all of them. I just wanted to post them with the explanation of the trend as i get them.Comment -
That particular trend is for the L9 years. I will edit that post to avoid confusion, thanksComment -
I will have a updated summary of all the plays on Thursday morning. I will have my final summary for week #1 on Friday morning.Comment -
thanks for the info...very much appreciated...good luck this season snapstick!Comment -
yah great lets look at whats already happened.... yah your smart... yesterday it rained... so now i know next week wednesday its gonna rain... thanks dude your great...i have the only accurate trend. PEOPLE WHO THINK THE PAST DETERMINES THE FUTURE IN BETTING SPORTS. LOSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE LOSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE LOSEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE !!!! But gl at least yah got 1 winner , my play on pitt. lol its so funny to me. you ppl buy this crap. if it was even close to true EVERYONE WOULD BE RICH !!!!Comment -
Trends
Thanks for the post snapstick...some real interesting trends here for week 1 and I believe...the trend is your friend.
Good luck man!Comment -
Good luck to year thru out the year snapstick.
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I respect your opinions but since you dont agree can you provide us with your method of picking plays? I think we all would like to hear it. You can disagree and voice your opinion but please explain to us YOUR method maybe it will benefit everyone.
You should have learned in grade school that History repeats itself. Often in sports thats true to. Im not sayig all these data trends are spot on but some of them are rock solid strong. Good luck to you.Comment -
Summary Of Plays:
Thursday, 09/10
Play: Pittsburgh -6 (-110)
Sunday, 09/13
Play: San Francisco +6.5 (-110)
Play: Kansas City +13 (-110)>>>2 trends support this play
Play: Detroit +13 (-110)
Play: Buffalo +11 (-110)
Play: Jax/Indy UNDER 44.5 (-110)
Play: Det/NO UNDER 48.5 (-110)
Play: SF/AZ UNDER 46 (-110)
Play: Chi/GB UNDER 46 (-110)
Play: Buff/NE UNDER 47 (-110)
Atlanta -4 (-110)
St. Louis +8.5 (-110)
Season Record Tracking
Thursday Favorites: 0-0
SB Loser Trend: 0-0
Underdog >10 Trend: 0-0
UNDER 44 Week #1 Trend: 0-0
Favorites Following Bye Week: 0-0
Buffalo Bills Game Proceeding the Miami Dolphins: 0-0
Thanksgiving Day Favorites: 0-0
Play Against Teams ATS Who Were 4-0 In Pre-Season: 0-0Comment -
REMEMBER, dont lock these plays in until gameday. (the >10 pointspread plays and the UNDER 44 total points plays) as they may change depending on the line changes between now and Sunday morning.Comment
