Early Line Movement...what role in capping?

[JimmyJet]

I have started a thread in college football to determine if early movement is a factor in determining the winning side. This thread will look at the same type of movement based on 5Dimes opener and will list the teams that show 1 or more points movement in their favor in the first 24 hours of the line being posted. After the games have been played will post the winners and losers based on just this one bit of information supplied to us on SBR. The theory being explored is to determine if "sharp money" played early online where the lines are available is representative of the 'right" side.

For the second week of games this will be within 24 hours of the opener being posted. For this first week, because the lines were opened back in April will use the 24 hours from 09/06.

Will post the teams tomorrow morning as at this time there is no line movement to report.

[rezkoness69]

let's see..could be interesting

[JimmyJet]

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 to -7

Baltimore Ravens -11 to -14

New York Jets +5.5 to +4.5

These listed above are the only sides showing 1 point or more movement from Sept 6th to Sept 7th.

[JimmyJet]

Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 to -7

Baltimore Ravens -11 to -14

New York Jets +5.5 to +4.5

These listed above are the only sides showing 1 point or more movement from Sept 6th to Sept 7th.

Record 2-1

[JimmyJet]

Week 2:

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 to +2.5

New York Jets +5 to +3

Green Bay Packers -9 to -10

Philadelphia Eagles Pk to -1

Washington Redskins -10 to -11

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 to +3

San Francisco 49rs Pk to -1

Chicago Bears +3 tp +1.5

New York Giants +2.5 to +1

To repeat the guidelines: open at 5Dimes and reflects 1 point move or greater in first 24 hours. Good Luck. Teams appearing last week on list went 2-1.

[taxman]

Thanks for the post JJ...interesting to track the numbers on the sharps hitting the early line..

[Robust]

jimmy:

look at the threads "when the spread doesn't move, follow the money" and "reverse line movement 2009" for some gems throughout the season..

Robust

[Limey]

I'd be surprised if those 9 teams went any better than 5-4 this weekend. Personally I'm not a fan of factoring line moves into my betting, at all, but will keep an eye on it

[JimmyJet]

Week 2:

Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 to +2.5

New York Jets +5 to +3

Green Bay Packers -9 to -10

Philadelphia Eagles Pk to -1

Washington Redskins -10 to -11

Arizona Cardinals +4.5 to +3

San Francisco 49rs Pk to -1

Chicago Bears +3 tp +1.5

New York Giants +2.5 to +1

To repeat the guidelines: open at 5Dimes and reflects 1 point move or greater in first 24 hours. Good Luck. Teams appearing last week on list went 2-1.

Record 5-4

Record to date 7-5

Only a factor, and this is research. Maybe a tool to use as part of handicapping...

[JimmyJet]

In looking closer, understanding this is too small a sample size to reach conclusions, it is interesting to see that dogs with early line movement are 5-2. Hmmmm.....

[Joe Dogs]

Nice work Jimmy,interested to see how this pans out long term.

[JimmyJet]

Record to date 7-5

Titans +3 to +1

Texans -3.5 to -4.5

Redskins -6 to -7

Vikings -6.5 to -8

Seahawks +1 to pk

Saints -4 to -5.5

Dolphins +7 to +5.5

Broncos +1 to pk

Cardinals -1 to -2.5

[Totolover1409]

I was checkin out the RLM. San Francisco moved from -1 to +1.5 when the public was betting San Fran. Patriots moved -6.5 to -4 when public was betting Jets. And Baltimore's line moved but San Diego still ended up winning.

Very interesting concept. 2-1 if using RLM.

[EXhoosier10]

Record to date 7-5 Titans +3 to +1 Texans -3.5 to -4.5 Redskins -6 to -7 Vikings -6.5 to -8 Seahawks +1 to pk Saints -4 to -5.5 Dolphins +7 to +5.5 Broncos +1 to pk Cardinals -1 to -2.5

Ten, Hou, Was, and Min all lose ATS, with Min being the team to win SU. A rough start to the day. Sea, Mia, and Den are starting out good though.

[spongerat]

isn't the sharp money early on the favorite but late on the dog because they know its gonna get pumped up?

[strictlywinners]

This was doing alright but got absolutely crushed today.

[JimmyJet]

Record to date 7-5 Week 2 5-4 Dogs over first two weeks 5-2

Titans +3 to +1 L

Texans -3.5 to -4.5 L

Redskins -6 to -7 L

Vikings -6.5 to -8 L

Seahawks +1 to pk L

Saints -4 to -5.5 W

Dolphins +7 to +5.5 L

Broncos +1 to pk W

Cardinals -1 to -2.5 L

Record 2-7

Record to date 9-12....early money not so smart this week...

[strictlywinners]

I've actually tracked something very similar to this, it usually works out around 50/50 when everything is said and done. But it comes in streaks, so next week might not be a bad week to get on the early line moves. Because they got killed so bad this week, they willl probably rebound next week.

[JimmyJet]

Record 9-12 Week 4

Titans -1 to -3

Ravens +3 to +1

Bengals -4 to -5.5

Lions +13 to +11

Tampa Bay +8.5 to +7.5

Bills Pk to -1

Steelers -5 to -7

[EXhoosier10]

Record 9-12 Week 4
Titans -1 to -3 Loss
Ravens +3 to +1 Loss
Bengals -4 to -5.5 Loss
Lions +13 to +11 Loss
Tampa Bay +8.5 to +7.5 Win
Bills Pk to -1 Loss
Steelers -5 to -7 Win

2-5 This week. Another rough week. THat puts us at 11-17 on the season. If this is around .500 system, we're pickin at around 40%, so there might be a bit of a rebound here pretty soon. (Let's hope at least)

[Nickelicious]

isn't the sharp money early on the favorite but late on the dog because they know its gonna get pumped up?

100% correct. Without factoring in this verifiable trend, tracking early line movement is useless. Early favorites become bigger favorites and therefore early dogs become bigger dogs. This is driven by the public. Sharps will wait for movement on their dogs accordingly (betting their favorites immediately and waiting on their dogs until the last minute).

The question is, how do you know which teams the sharps are really on?

The best strategy is to bet the favorites that have the most line movement towards a bigger spread very early in the week. Get on them ASAP before they settle into the normal spread, which might gain you a 1/2 point or more.

But only do that if you have capped the game and believe in the movement.

[20Four7]

I hate it when I don't get my money in early. I loved the over in the Det/chic game. Opened at 38 and went to 41..... I didn't bet it early sunday and came home to a 44 line..... passed at 44 and it was there at half time. Should of hammered it early in the week at 39 or 40.