BGs NFL thread!

jkernea · 09-06-09, 09:16 PM

GL! I'm on AZ as well -6.5....I don't see SF keeping it close.

BGboothA · 09-06-09, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by jkernea

GL! I'm on AZ as well -6.5....I don't see SF keeping it close.

Yeah, and 5dimes looks like it already has it at 7. I am glad I got on it now, I don't see this being a TD game, but if it is, I am going to be happy I got in at 6.5.

BGboothA · 09-07-09, 12:23 AM

Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5.5)

1 unit play

Recent history has our back on this one (See quote below). The 5.5 seems like a big line this early, but this game shouldn't be within a TD. Since 2001 Superbowl winners have been (6-1-1) ATS week 1. This year should be no different. Tennessee got a great deal of its games last year based on Defense and running the ball, this week the Titans will truly learn what the absence of Albert Haynesworth is going to do to their defense and Chris Johnson and Lendale White will have their hands full against the a Pittsburgh defense who only allowed 80.2 yards per game on the ground last year.

This should be a game dominated by the defenses, the big difference is that Pitt still has the ability to move the ball and put up points, while Tennessee's run centered offense will fall behind early and have a hard time catching up. Look for Big Ben and company to pile on early and then grind the game down keeping Tennessee's defense on the field and Chris Johnson on the sideline. Albert Haynesworth left a huge hole in the middle of Tennessee's defensive line and the Pit runningbacks should find enough room not to allow Tennessee into the game.

Originally posted by Greg Dempson Sports

2008, WK 1, Giants - 4.5 H vs. Redskins, 16 - 07, won ATS & UN 41.**
2007, WK 1, Colts - 5.5 H vs. Saints, 41 - 10, won ATS & UN 53.5.**
2006, WK 1, Steelers - 1 H vs. Dolphins, 28 - 17, won ATS & OV 35.5.**
2005, WK 1, Patriots - 7.5 H vs. Raiders, 30 - 20, won ATS & OV 49.5.**
2004, WK 1, Patriots - 3 H vs. Colts, 27 - 24, push ATS & OV 44.5.**
2003, WK 1, Buccaneers + 3 at Eagles, 17 - 00, won ATS & UN 36.5.*
2002, WK 1, Patriots + 2.5 H vs. Steelers, 30 - 14, won ATS & OV 38.*
2001, WK 1, Ravens - 10 H vs. Bears, 17 - 06, won ATS & UN 33.5.
2000, WK 1, SL Rams - 6.5 H vs. Broncos, 41 - 36, lost ATS & OV 49.5.*

Danskeren · 09-07-09, 07:31 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

WEEK 1 PLAYS
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3.5)
Tennessee Titans @ Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT -5.5)**
St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7.5)
San Fransisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5)

Write-ups and more games to be added throughout the week.

* Asterisk indicates confirmed play with write up in thread. Each * = 1 unit played (** = 2 units)

This is being created for personal tracking purposes only. All comments are welcome and will be responded to. If you don't like my picks, feel free to fade.

GL to us all!

So far I agree with GB and seahawks (i might buy the hook in both games) ..
Haven't decided upon the Titans/steelers - but have a slight lean to the titans.

don't agree with Cardinals. SB loosers haven't covered in week 1 for ages. I'll wait out the line and Hopefully get SF at +7.5.

But good luck with your season!

BGboothA · 09-07-09, 02:00 PM

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3.5)

3 Units, bought the hook down to -3.0

This is the

of the week for me. If I would allow myself to play more than 3 units per game this early I would do it here. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense ended last year on a tear averaging just under 300 yards and just over 2 touchdowns a game over the last 6 games of the season. This preseason they sure didn't slow down, Rodgers finished the preseason with a quarterback rating of 147.9. Chicago defense won't be able to slow down the Packers at home.

The bears offense did gain Jay Cutler and Matt Forte is no slouch, but this game shouldn't be close. Cutler still needs someone to throw to and although I believe Greg Olsen will become that guy, he isn't there yet. Hester is a hell of an athlete but still has not become that go to receiver that Cutler had last year in Marshall and Royal. Cutler will struggle out of the gates and GB will win this game.

Now that being said, I don't see any reason why anyone would not buy this game down to an even 3.0 which is what did.

St. Louis Rams v. Seattle Seahawks (SEA -7.5)

2 units, bought down to -7.0

This is another game that will not be close. Seattle may struggle on the road, but they get the home opener in Seattle in front of the 12th man. Mora has something to prove and will come out screaming. Its week 1 so Hasselbeck is still healthy, the addition of Houshyourmama finally gives Hasselbeck someone to throw to that will actually catch the football.

Seattle's defense boasts one of the top LB crews in the game. Tatupu, Curry and Hill will contain SJax an force Bulger and a horrible WR group to beat them. Although the hawks don't have the strongest secondary and will be exposed throughout the year, it won't come in this game at home against the Rams.

Look for Seattle to jump out on top and not look back. This game could be over by half time. St. Louis will be lucky to score 10 points and Seattle should have no problem putting up 20 points at home against a lackluster St. Louis defense.

BGboothA · 09-09-09, 06:16 PM

Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (MIN -3.5)

2 unit play

I know all the statistics, road dome favorite playing on grass. Brett Farve is unreliable and will choke. But those are the reasons that this thing is not a 10 point spread. Cleveland is horrible, quarterback situation is a mess, runningback situation a mess, wide receiver situation a mess, hell even the TE situation has changed from last year. Guess who had the 30th ranked rushing defense last year.....giving up 138 yards a game and 4.3 yards per attempt. If you guessed Cleveland you are correct.

Now lets add to the equation that Minnesota was the third best rushing offense in the league last year, averaging 157 yards per game, and almost 5 yards per attempt. Brett Favre isn't going to win the game for the Vikings, the fact is he won't need to! Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor will run and screen all over this horrible Cleveland Defense. And the Vikings won't have to score much in order to cover the spread.

Cleveland only managed to score 16.7 points per game last year, I know the coaches changed and the play calling will be different, but you are still relying on the combination of Jamal Lewis, Rookie James Davis, and first year starter Brady Quinn. Braylon Edwards is coming off a horrible season until they prove otherwise Clevelands offense is no one to fear.

Let us not forget Minnesota's defense was the number one defense in the league last year. Minnesota only allowed an amazing 8.7 points per game! And now they get to open up against a horrible Cleveland offense.

This game is over by half-time.

San Fransisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (ARI -6.5)

1 unit

There is definite history of Superbowl losers struggling week one ATS. However, most superbowl losers don't return the majority of their starters and get to play against a gutter team with a first year starting quarterback missing their first round draft pick at home. To get this game under a touchdown is a blessing. I don't see this game being close a touchdown is an easy cover.

San Fransisco is going to have to rely heavily on Gore. Arizona's defense wasn't horrible last year averaging only 112 yards allowed on the ground a game. Arizona will stack the box and force young mister Hill to find a receiver and beat them in the air, where Arizona was decent allowing 225 yards per game in the air. Look for San Fran's offense to struggle opening day and Arizona's passing offense to put up a fair amount of points in their home opener.

Arizona covers the touchdown difference.

BGboothA · 09-12-09, 12:43 AM

Adding...
Washington Redskins +7 for 1 unit

Washington Redskins ML +258 for .5 units

The Giants don't have the offense to run away from from Washington. Jason Campbell is going to have a change to win this game, and Eli Manning is going to have a chance to lose this game. I see this as a value play more than anything else.

BGboothA · 09-14-09, 08:39 AM

Adding Monday Night Game...
New England Patriots -10.5

New England home opener Monday Night, Brady makes a statement and this game isn't close by half-time.