Week 1 NFL Plays

[cocknocker]

Well now I have checked out the landscape and I see that there is a lot of homework to be done and people that are needed to be heard from before the 1st week of the season is upon us. Informants are hard at work doing both legal and illegal things to help us gain a slight edge. With such a nice schedule of games, it's hard to guage which one is the best one.

Of course there will be movement there for us to watch, but mostly we need to know WHY the line is moving.

I am hearing some good things about Miami's offense out of their practices, and the Saints are very much not a great defensive team. Atlanta is at home however, and that in itsself is hard to fade. Ryan and co. are good on offense. I am sure that he will get his. But the element of surprise is a trademark of coach Sparano, and I expect a stellar effort out of his ranks in that game.


I've got a lot of other games to look at obviously and come to a conclusion by that Sunday.

[showtime2000]

CK, about the Saints. They have made quite a bit of changes in the offseason on their defense and it seems to have paid off so far in their first 3 games in preseason. The biggest change was bringing in Def Cor Greg Williams. The secondary got revamped and they brought in Greer, Sharper and Malcom Jenkins. Vilma has looked like a beast so far. In 3 games they have forced 9 turnovers. I really see this as a big year for them.

Some other trends for Week 1,

-SB loser is 0-9ats(2-7SU) last 9 years in week1
-cleveland is an underdog whcih fits the system, play home dogs that play on a different surface than the favored team coming in



CK, any thougths on future props plays for this season in NFL? I have been combining my list and here's what i got so far,

Green Bay Total Team wins over 8.5
New Orleans Saints Total Team wins over 9
Cincinnati Bengals Total Team wins over 6.5

[KingKing]

CK. I truly thank you for sharing your wisdom with us. Priceless! You are a man amongst boys. B.o.l this season and all the seasons after!

[ASH0479]

Yes sir, the SAints brought in some horsepower on Defense, so it will be interesting to see how they come along...in the preseason their first string defense has let up a single touchdown to Houston

[kmarinouofm]

i personally like the over 43 in the dolphins vs falcons game.. think both teams will get at least 20 pts easy..

[showtime2000]

Here's a list of futures that i will be playing,

Dallas Total Team wins over 9 -115
(road games against TB,KC,DEN and home games against OAK,ATL,SEA,CAR. Splits within their div should push them above 9. Good running game, good def, good Oline)

Green Bay Total Team wins over 8.5 -125
(7 of their 10 losses were by 4 points or less)

New Orleans Saints Total Team wins over 9 -110
(Great additions to their def this season. Lost alot of close games last year.)


New Orleans Saints to win NFC South +165 (homie play!)

[Dexter]

love the green bay pick - they take the division, not the hyped up vikings.

titans and cards miss the playoffs this year - you know what, we need to start up a prediction thread. this weekend. need to read through a few more teams/rosters.

tentatively, im going with the pats to win it all. there defense will be that much better because of brady being back (playing with bigger leads)

[aznjeff07]

only games i like tom are st louis, sea, and green bay. The only reason i'm hesitant is the fact that i dont' know how long each team is going to start their starters....

[4TH AND STUPID]

titans and cards miss the playoffs this year -

thanks for coming out.

[JayLiang]

CK would you like to PM me some good stocks.

[showtime2000]

love the green bay pick - they take the division, not the hyped up vikings.

titans and cards miss the playoffs this year - you know what, we need to start up a prediction thread. this weekend. need to read through a few more teams/rosters.

tentatively, im going with the pats to win it all. there defense will be that much better because of brady being back (playing with bigger leads)

Sounds like a good idea!

[Dexter]

thanks for coming out.

love the avatar there ya homer.

lemme guess - any team that made the playoffs last year will again this year?

elaborate what you think?

[cocknocker]

NFL Football Moneylines and the corresponding spreads


-2 130/+110
-2.5 -140/+120
-3 -155/+135
-3.5 -175/+155
-4 -200/+170
-4.5 -220/+180
-5/-5.5 -240/+190
-6 -270/+210
-6.5 -300/+220
-7 -330/+250
-7.5/-8/-8.5 -360/+280
-9/-9.5 -400/+300
-10 -450/+325
-11 -550/+375
-12 -600/+400
-13 -650/+450

Any spread under 2 a moneyline should be played for either side you choose. Any spread over 14 the obvious is to take the points if that is your selection. The moneyline will be just too high to take for the ordinary fella

[cocknocker]

When handicapping an NFL game it is a good idea to look at both of these numbers and make sure that they correspond with one another while you are handicapping. If a game has a spread of 7 and the moneyline for the favorite is only -280, then you already should know that the number being ofered is a "soft" 7. In these cases, a look at the underdog and their motivation should be looked at with a keen eye, for a situation were there is a false favorite may exist despite the number that's on display

[cocknocker]

Still looking into the action for the week 1 NFL season. Some teams look ready to do the damn thing and others NOT!

[oda11]

Great info there CK!

[cocknocker]

CK would you like to PM me some good stocks.

I PM'd you with a few!

[cocknocker]

Lots of good players got cut including Tyree from the NY Giants, which is puzzling.

[cocknocker]

I suspect that we will start to see some dramatic movment the closer we get to the opening day now. Football is here. Corporate money galore

[snapstick]

I suspect that we will start to see some dramatic movment the closer we get to the opening day now. Football is here. Corporate money galore

[wangichu]

I agree with Dex that the the Titans miss the playoffs. I kind of think that Indy and Houston will see the postseason out of that division. As for the cards, I can't see who's equiped enough to take that division from them, but it's hard to argue with them having not even won the division in years previous, let alone 2x in a row.

I've got the Dolphins and Falcons in line for a market correction after overperforming last year, while the Saints just need a little defense to take a division (and they did finally add some defensive personel for the first time in sean payton's coaching tenure) with one squad running jake delhomme out there, the bucs with a fresh (yet inexperienced) cast on D and a lot of work to do on offense. Also with that market correction i'm predicting for the falcons, that leaves the division open for the saints.

Also, week 1, i'm definitely on the Steelers. They still remember getting stomped out in tennessee last year and watching the titans disrespect the terrible towl, stomping it out at the end of the game. But it ain't cool to add insult to injury and the steelers are ready to make them pay. A little bit of positive line movement is all i need to say "fire" on that one.

PIT -5

[jsnone1]

great info!

[SexyMit]

I agree with Dex that the the Titans miss the playoffs. I kind of think that Indy and Houston will see the postseason out of that division. As for the cards, I can't see who's equiped enough to take that division from them, but it's hard to argue with them having not even won the division in years previous, let alone 2x in a row.

I've got the Dolphins and Falcons in line for a market correction after overperforming last year, while the Saints just need a little defense to take a division (and they did finally add some defensive personel for the first time in sean payton's coaching tenure) with one squad running jake delhomme out there, the bucs with a fresh (yet inexperienced) cast on D and a lot of work to do on offense. Also with that market correction i'm predicting for the falcons, that leaves the division open for the saints.

Also, week 1, i'm definitely on the Steelers. They still remember getting stomped out in tennessee last year and watching the titans disrespect the terrible towl, stomping it out at the end of the game. But it ain't cool to add insult to injury and the steelers are ready to make them pay. A little bit of positive line movement is all i need to say "fire" on that one.

PIT -5

I forgot all about that game and Titans doing that to the terrible towel, I think that is going to be motivation for them. But Superbowl champs of previous yrs the 1st game of the regular season usually don't do so well to start the yr.

[showtime2000]

I agree with Dex that the the Titans miss the playoffs. I kind of think that Indy and Houston will see the postseason out of that division. As for the cards, I can't see who's equiped enough to take that division from them, but it's hard to argue with them having not even won the division in years previous, let alone 2x in a row.

I've got the Dolphins and Falcons in line for a market correction after overperforming last year, while the Saints just need a little defense to take a division (and they did finally add some defensive personel for the first time in sean payton's coaching tenure) with one squad running jake delhomme out there, the bucs with a fresh (yet inexperienced) cast on D and a lot of work to do on offense. Also with that market correction i'm predicting for the falcons, that leaves the division open for the saints.

Also, week 1, i'm definitely on the Steelers. They still remember getting stomped out in tennessee last year and watching the titans disrespect the terrible towl, stomping it out at the end of the game. But it ain't cool to add insult to injury and the steelers are ready to make them pay. A little bit of positive line movement is all i need to say "fire" on that one.

PIT -5

Yes wang!!!!!!!!!!!!

[MarkHammond]

I forgot all about that game and Titans doing that to the terrible towel, I think that is going to be motivation for them. But Superbowl champs of previous yrs the 1st game of the regular season usually don't do so well to start the yr.

Giants beat the skins last year

Pats won their first game year before

[SexyMit]

Giants beat the skins last year

Pats won their first game year before

Ok I'm sorry they may have won but they didn't cover the spread!

[MrMannix]

What you thinking about CAR +1. Thought that line would open higher= as result of the 1 point spread the early public #'s are piled on the Eagles. CAR looks like a good play here but I want to see that line movement throughout the week.

[dodger33]

Ok I'm sorry they may have won but they didn't cover the spread!

dont want you misleading anyone

"Nine years and counting, the defending Super Bowl champion has won in Week 1and own a 7-1-1 record against the spread during that span too."

[SexyMit]

Well then I looked up the wrong information, and was misinformed. I apologize for that info, as I thought that they hadn't covered the last few yrs actually. It must be the 2nd week that the Superbowl winner has a bad ATS record.

[durito]

Giants beat the skins last year

Pats won their first game year before

Great, but the Colts won the Super Bowl in 2007. The won and covered 41-10 -5.5 v New Orleans opening night 9/6/07.

The idea of betting against the Super Bowl winner comes from Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong and went 12-3 ATS opening week from 1985-1999.

[yorksdicks]

pitt -5 all day long!!

[yorksdicks]

[yorksdicks]

Lets make some money boys!! One more day

[rezkoness69]

Now the current trend seems to be fade the Super-bowl runner up in Week 1. What is it 0 for its last 7? That might be what you're thinkin of Sexymit

[SexyMit]

Now the current trend seems to be fade the Super-bowl runner up in Week 1. What is it 0 for its last 7? That might be what you're thinkin of Sexymit

Yeah that must be it! I knew it was something with the previous Super Bowl!