GB opens -4.5 next week vs SF

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  • gshock1
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 12-04-09
    • 5366

    #1
    GB opens -4.5 next week vs SF
    Too bad SF got banged up at DL and LB today. GB is very susceptible vs. the run and SF should be able to exploit that to some degree. I don't think they will be able to contain the GB passing attack without getting pressure from their front due to injuries.
  • stevenash
    Moderator
    • 01-17-11
    • 65570

    #2
    Originally posted by gshock1
    Too bad SF got banged up at DL and LB today. GB is very susceptible vs. the run and SF should be able to exploit that to some degree. I don't think they will be able to contain the GB passing attack without getting pressure from their front due to injuries.
    Sharp line.
    Comment
    • gshock1
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 12-04-09
      • 5366

      #3
      Originally posted by stevenash
      Sharp line.
      I would have taken SF if they were healthier up front.

      They have the perfect system to beat GB.
      Comment
      • OldBill
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 11-02-21
        • 6416

        #4
        COMON man if 49ers lost at rams they wouldnt even be in playoffs and any team that lost 4 or more games ina Row never made it out of playoffs PLUS teams that play away in final week have to win 4 road games without a break I posted a thread about this FACT they are 0-15 trying to GET to the superbowl

        Titans almost LOST to Texans 2 X
        Comment
        • budwiser
          SBR MVP
          • 11-22-11
          • 3226

          #5
          titans -3 i can understand
          green bay -4.5 i can understand
          kc only -2 vs buffalo?? that's gotta be headed to 3
          Comment
          • stevenash
            Moderator
            • 01-17-11
            • 65570

            #6
            Originally posted by budwiser
            titans -3 i can understand
            green bay -4.5 i can understand
            kc only -2 vs buffalo?? that's gotta be headed to 3
            When I was a teenager a quarter of a century ago just starting to get serious about sports betting and such, a cigar chomping, banker visor wearing, bookmaker that booked bets starting out in the WWII era by answering phones and recording all bets on fly paper told me when a football line opens at '2' that generally means "let the betting public decide which direction that line moves, either to three or to one"

            I was wise to listen to all the old-timers when I was young, the knowledge they shared, the information that still applies today can not be learned in any textbook.
            Comment
            • budwiser
              SBR MVP
              • 11-22-11
              • 3226

              #7
              Originally posted by stevenash
              When I was a teenager a quarter of a century ago just starting to get serious about sports betting and such, a cigar chomping, banker visor wearing, bookmaker that booked bets starting out in the WWII era by answering phones and recording all bets on fly paper told me when a football line opens at '2' that generally means "let the betting public decide which direction that line moves, either to three or to one"

              I was wise to listen to all the old-timers when I was young, the knowledge they shared, the information that still applies today can not be learned in any textbook.
              Good stuff. Yes always better to listen to the old timers. I'm old know what I'm talking about but the likelihood of some kid listening to me isn't that high. A lot of these kids fight over egos on message boards, why I came here-I'm done with Junior High, Junior.

              buff-kc line already at 2.5 at places,it's got to head to 3. If it doesn't I've got to do a double take.
              Comment
              • stevenash
                Moderator
                • 01-17-11
                • 65570

                #8
                Originally posted by budwiser
                Good stuff. Yes always better to listen to the old timers. I'm old know what I'm talking about but the likelihood of some kid listening to me isn't that high. A lot of these kids fight over egos on message boards, why I came here-I'm done with Junior High, Junior.

                buff-kc line already at 2.5 at places,it's got to head to 3. If it doesn't I've got to do a double take.
                Generally speaking the betting public is very short sighted, the seven TD's in seven possessions is what is in the front of their minds.

                Buffalo will get the early money, just watch.
                Then the correction will follow.
                Comment
                • budwiser
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-22-11
                  • 3226

                  #9
                  If tge line comes late Saturday bills $ but it comes late Sunday

                  Reminds me of georgia, destroys michigan early ga money, tgen oh yeah bama beat ga here comes bama $
                  Comment
                  • stevenash
                    Moderator
                    • 01-17-11
                    • 65570

                    #10
                    2.5 now at FD.

                    Still 2 flat at DK and Heritage.




                    [IMG]<a href="https://ibb.co/QQ3dqDY"><img src="https://i.ibb.co/ZXpmw2c/2022-01-17.png" alt="2022-01-17" border="0"></a>[/IMG]



                    Heritage is my go-to.
                    I have the US accounts just for other 'out's
                    Can't beat Heritage.
                    (well you can but the payouts are lightening)
                    Comment
                    • budwiser
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-22-11
                      • 3226

                      #11
                      Yeah generally the lines follow the sagarin ratings. Because of the bills blowouts the 2 hits the #

                      Used to do heritage, remember when it was betjamaica. with all the brick books around no need
                      Comment
                      • stevenash
                        Moderator
                        • 01-17-11
                        • 65570

                        #12
                        Originally posted by budwiser
                        Yeah generally the lines follow the sagarin ratings. Because of the bills blowouts the 2 hits the #

                        Used to do heritage, remember when it was betjamaica. with all the brick books around no need
                        I'm an IT analyst by trade and Sagarin has always been my go to guy.
                        He's got more advanced math degrees from MIT than days of the week.
                        The guy's a human abacus.

                        Dunkel too back in the day.
                        He was the grandfather of all this.
                        Comment
                        • budwiser
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-22-11
                          • 3226

                          #13
                          Originally posted by stevenash
                          I'm an IT analyst by trade and Sagarin has always been my go to guy.
                          He's got more advanced math degrees from MIT than days of the week.
                          The guy's a human abacus.

                          Dunkel too back in the day.
                          He was the grandfather of all this.
                          i remember back in the day getting usa today newspapers at the hotel door. everybody loved those color front pages. they'd have the sagarin ratings in the sports page

                          sagaring has several ratings, predictor, golden mean, i'd agonize over the #s. used to get pissed that he didn't say "this is the one to go with". now that i'm older it's easy-go with predictor. so much stuff becomes easier when u get older.

                          i remember sitting in a subway watching some guy get internet on his cell phone. that was revolutionary, i could not believe you can get it out of the air.

                          as of now got my eye on the sunday games. saturday games, hard to argue imo -3.5 tenn and -5.5 packers.

                          tampa bay brady still doing it without fournette brown and godwin. the tampa offensive line was key-they kept brady's pocket clean. so whoever plays the buccs, going to have to take a hard look on if they can get to brady. the glamour candidates of course are donald/rams and watt/birds. tb did lose an olineman wirfs, guessing he'll be fine, ankle injury. looking to bet against tampa, need an angle.

                          buff-kc i'm eyeing for sure. always like the prime time, prime slot games, the ones the public bets on the most, the so-called sharps bet on the most. both sheep and wolves get slaughtered. everybody is a sharp, everyone thinks they know better. lol
                          Comment
                          • jtoler
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-17-13
                            • 30967

                            #14
                            all in on cheese super duper max bet
                            Comment
                            • OldBill
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 11-02-21
                              • 6416

                              #15
                              OF course KC defense made BIG BEN look as bad as he is only 45 yards in 1st half

                              NO team that LOST T B in season ever won a superbowl (saints DON'T count they went bench final 3 games of year massive injuries)

                              so far 3 playoff teams that LOST to T B are gone Patriots - Eagles- C boys - NEXT UP is BILLS
                              Comment
                              • Pick'nParlays
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-22-08
                                • 3134

                                #16
                                Someone have the team history for the past decade? GB doesn't play the Niners well. Weather should be a factor but not health.

                                Warners lower ankle will be ready

                                Jimmy's thumb and right shoulder will be ready

                                Waiting on Bosa to clear and that would be the issue.

                                Won't call anyone out but they look healthy enough to me and have a great history. Buy +4 on the Niners and parlay it the over in KC/Buff game when weather is confirmed. That would be my suggestion.

                                Bol all!
                                Comment
                                • stevenash
                                  Moderator
                                  • 01-17-11
                                  • 65570

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Pick'nParlays
                                  Someone have the team history for the past decade? GB doesn't play the Niners well. Weather should be a factor but not health.

                                  Warners lower ankle will be ready

                                  Jimmy's thumb and right shoulder will be ready

                                  Waiting on Bosa to clear and that would be the issue.

                                  Won't call anyone out but they look healthy enough to me and have a great history. Buy +4 on the Niners and parlay it the over in KC/Buff game when weather is confirmed. That would be my suggestion.

                                  Bol all!
                                  That hook you're going to buy is going to be premium juice.
                                  Not worth the price.
                                  Comment
                                  • OldBill
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 11-02-21
                                    • 6416

                                    #18
                                    WISH i had about $50 k cash to take all BETS on 49ers and i'll give you 8.5 points

                                    THE 49ers offense DID Not score an offensive TD in 1st half

                                    HORRIBLE Offense all season now with more injuries added after Cowboys game and i dont give a frig if Joey bosa plays HE is NOT THE QB

                                    JUST like VON millers didnt help Rams vs Ravens or 49ers
                                    Comment
                                    • Zlaniner
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-12-19
                                      • 1697

                                      #19
                                      NI9ERS GOING TO GB and WINNING !!!
                                      Comment
                                      • OldBill
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 11-02-21
                                        • 6416

                                        #20
                                        every edge you need about tonights game

                                        from another forum in detail vs the spread injuries etc...

                                        PREVIEW

                                        While the Los Angeles Rams will play host to the first-ever Monday night playoff game, it is the Arizona Cardinals who are feeling completely familiar with the lead-up to the all-NFC West wild-card-round matchup.

                                        The Rams-Cardinals primetime showdown will be the third meeting between the teams, with the road team having won the previous two. Los Angeles is a 3.5-point favorite.

                                        And while the Rams prevailed in a Monday night meeting at Arizona in December, it was the Cardinals who pronounced themselves playoff-worthy with a Week 4 victory at Los Angeles in early October.

                                        Defeats in four of their last five games cost the Cardinals an NFC West title and left them with something to prove Monday. But that was also the case in Week 4, when they arrived in Los Angeles on the heels of three consecutive wins to start the season amid questions of whether their hot start was sustainable.

                                        The Cardinals not only delivered a resounding 37-20 victory over the Rams that day, behind two touchdown passes from Kyler Murray and 120 yards rushing from Chase Edmonds, but they went on to open the season 7-0.

                                        Having gone 4-6 since that undefeated start, the Cardinals are once again having to prove that their time has arrived.

                                        "It's 0-0, and no one remembers the regular season," Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said. "It's what you do here on out, and it's a real opportunity for us to take the next step and see how good we can be."

                                        The game will not only be Murray's playoff debut, but it will be the Cardinals' first appearance in the playoffs since 2015-16, when they defeated the Green Bay Packers in the divisional round but were blown out by the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game.

                                        Murray averaged 270.5 yards passing per game this season with 24 TDs and 10 interceptions. He had 383 yards passing in Week 14 against the Rams but did not throw a TD pass that day and was intercepted twice in a 30-23 Los Angeles victory.

                                        "I like that we had two games to see how we played them, how they played us and what looked good and didn't," Kingsbury said. "So we can build off that."

                                        The Rams had a hot start of their own, despite their early loss to the Cardinals, opening with a 7-1 record. Then came a midseason slumber when they took consecutive defeats to a trio of playoff teams, the Tennessee Titans, the San Francisco 49ers and the Packers.

                                        The Rams were just 2-5 against playoff teams this season.

                                        Quarterback Matthew Stafford averaged 309.6 yards passing per game with 22 TDs and four interceptions over the first eight games in a Rams uniform, but those stats fell to 267.7 yards passing with 19 TDs and 13 interceptions over the final nine games as Los Angeles went 5-4.

                                        Stafford did help wide receiver Cooper Kupp to a Rams-record 1,947 receiving yards, while Kupp also pulled off the wide receiver triple crown, leading the NFL in receptions (145), TDs (16) and receiving yards.

                                        After their midseason swoon, the Rams pulled together a five-game winning streak that included their victory at Arizona, but questions started anew after their 27-24 defeat in overtime to the 49ers to close out the season. The Rams blew a 17-0, first-half lead.

                                        Los Angeles' offensive and defensive lines were dominated by the 49ers in the season finale, especially in the second half as San Francisco rallied.

                                        "Whether we're playing at home, playing on the road, things are going our way, things aren't going our way, we continue to battle," said Stafford, who has not won a playoff game in three chances. "That's what it takes to win games in the playoffs, there's no question. Right now, it's testing us ... but we're a resilient group and we'll be ready to go."

                                        Rams safety Jordan Fuller is out for the playoffs with an ankle injury and fellow safety Taylor Rapp (concussion) was ruled out Saturday. The injuries led to the Rams signing Eric Weddle out of retirement Wednesday and McVay said he will be activated prior to Monday's game. Linebacker Leonard Floyd (back) will play.

                                        Cardinals defensive end J.J. Watt (shoulder), who hasn't played since Week 7, returned to practice Thursday and was activated Monday. Watt, 32, hasn't played for the Cardinals since Oct. 24. Days later, Watt underwent surgery to repair a torn labrum, bicep, rotator cuff and separated shoulder.

                                        Edmonds (ribs, toe) is slated to play, while fellow running back James Conner (ribs) is listed as questionable. Left guard Justin Pugh (calf) also is questionable.

                                        ARI Off Rank Stat Rank LAR Def
                                        373.6 8 TOT YDS 17 344.9
                                        251.5 10 PASS YDS 22 241.7
                                        122.1 10 RUSH YDS 6 103.2
                                        26.4 11 PTS SCORED 15 21.9
                                        15 4 T OVERS/T AWAYS 11 24
                                        ARI Def Rank Stat Rank LAR Off
                                        329.2 11 TOT YDS 9 372.1
                                        214.4 7 PASS YDS 5 273.1
                                        114.8 20 RUSH YDS 25 99.0
                                        21.5 12 PTS SCORED 8 27.1
                                        27 8 T AWAYS/T OVERS 18 23


                                        INJURIES


                                        Arizona
                                        Cardinals
                                        Player POS Status
                                        J. Watt DE Prob Mon - Shoulder
                                        ( Mon, Jan 17)
                                        M. Wilson CB Prob Mon - Shoulder
                                        ( Sat, Jan 15)
                                        J. Phillips DE Prob Mon - Knee
                                        ( Sat, Jan 15)
                                        A. Hamilton CB Prob Mon - Teeth
                                        ( Sat, Jan 15)
                                        Z. Allen DE Prob Mon - Ankle
                                        ( Sat, Jan 15)
                                        D. Harris TE Prob Mon - Shoulder
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        J. Pugh OL Ques Mon - Calf
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        I. Simmons LB Ques Mon - Personal
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        C. Edmonds RB Prob Mon - Ribs
                                        ( Thu, Jan 13)
                                        M. Williams TE I-R - Knee
                                        ( Wed, Jan 12)
                                        J. Ward RB Ques Mon - Knee
                                        ( Wed, Jan 12)
                                        J. Conner RB Ques Mon - Heel
                                        ( Wed, Jan 12)
                                        E. Turner LB Ques Mon - Shoulder
                                        ( Tue, Jan 11)
                                        J. Wiggins S Ques Mon - Knee
                                        ( Tue, Jan 11)
                                        R. Moore WR Ques Mon - Ankle
                                        ( Tue, Jan 11)


                                        L.A. Rams
                                        Los Angeles
                                        Rams
                                        Player POS Status
                                        D. Williams CB Prob Mon - Shoulder
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        L. Floyd LB Prob Mon - Back
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        V. Jefferson WR Ques Mon - Shoulder
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        B. Howell RB Ques Mon - Hamstring
                                        ( Fri, Jan 14)
                                        M. Stafford QB Prob Mon - Toe
                                        ( Thu, Jan 13)
                                        J. Fuller S I-R - Ankle
                                        ( Wed, Jan 12)
                                        T. Rapp S Ques Mon - Concussion
                                        ( Tue, Jan 11)
                                        R. Calais RB I-R - Foot
                                        ( Mon, Jan 3)
                                        E. Jones LB Out indefinitely - Ankle
                                        ( Mon, Dec 27)
                                        D. Henderson Jr. RB Out indefinitely - Knee
                                        ( Mon, Dec 27)
                                        S. Joseph-Day DL Out indefinitely - Pectoral
                                        ( Wed, Dec 22)
                                        T. Anchrum Jr. OL Out indefinitely - Knee
                                        ( Mon, Dec 20)
                                        R. Rochell DB Out indefinitely - Chest
                                        ( Mon, Dec 20)


                                        BETTING TRENDS
                                        Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a ATS loss.


                                        Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 games following a straight up loss.

                                        Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 playoff games as an underdog.

                                        Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.


                                        Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.


                                        Under is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.


                                        Over is 4-0 in Rams last 4 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.


                                        Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.


                                        Rams are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

                                        Over is 4-1 in Rams last 5 vs. NFC.


                                        MATCHUP EDGE an X is bad

                                        ARI Edge in LAR
                                        Matchup Edge X Points/Game Matchup Edge Check
                                        Matchup Edge Check Yards Gained Matchup Edge X
                                        Matchup Edge Check Yards Allowed Matchup Edge X
                                        Matchup Edge Check Time of Possession Matchup Edge X
                                        Matchup Edge X Red Zone Matchup Edge Check
                                        Matchup Edge Check Kicking Matchup Edge X
                                        Matchup Edge X Penalties Matchup Edge Check

                                        INDEPTH TRENDS

                                        Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

                                        Cardinals are 18-6-3 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog.

                                        Cardinals are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 road games.

                                        Cardinals are 19-7-2 ATS in their last 28 games as an underdog.

                                        Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

                                        Cardinals are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.

                                        Cardinals are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games on fieldturf.

                                        Cardinals are 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

                                        Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in January.

                                        Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

                                        Cardinals are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 Monday games.
                                        Covers Cold Trend

                                        Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games.



                                        Rams are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up loss.

                                        Rams are 28-13-1 ATS in their last 42 vs. NFC.

                                        Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.

                                        Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

                                        Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

                                        Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.

                                        Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff home games.

                                        Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


                                        Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

                                        Rams are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.



                                        Head to Head Trends


                                        Cardinals are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

                                        Cardinals are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.

                                        Favorite is 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

                                        Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.


                                        Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

                                        Comment
                                        • budwiser
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 11-22-11
                                          • 3226

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by OldBill
                                          WISH i had about $50 k cash to take all BETS on 49ers and i'll give you 8.5 points

                                          THE 49ers offense DID Not score an offensive TD in 1st half

                                          HORRIBLE Offense all season now with more injuries added after Cowboys game and i dont give a frig if Joey bosa plays HE is NOT THE QB

                                          JUST like VON millers didnt help Rams vs Ravens or 49ers
                                          49ers didn't score an offensive td? They got the ball first and in 7 plays scored a td.
                                          Comment
                                          • DwightShrute
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 01-17-09
                                            • 103255

                                            #22
                                            <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Yeah, the 49ers weren’t gonna lose yesterday <a href="https://t.co/t4AohCSUDq">pic.twitter.com/t4AohCSUDq</a></p>&mdash; Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) <a href="https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1483122548791463945?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >January 17, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
                                            Comment
                                            • OldBill
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 11-02-21
                                              • 6416

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by budwiser
                                              49ers didn't score an offensive td? They got the ball first and in 7 plays scored a td.

                                              yup and after that only 3 fg's

                                              10:54 TD
                                              E. Mitchell 4 yard run ( R. Gould kick)
                                              7 - 0
                                              4:53 FG
                                              R. Gould 53 yard field goal
                                              10 - 0
                                              9:40 FG
                                              R. Gould 40 yard field goal
                                              13 - 0
                                              5:19 TD
                                              A. Cooper 20 yards passing from D. Prescott ( G. Zuerlein kick)
                                              13 - 7
                                              3:03 FG
                                              R. Gould 52 yard field goal
                                              16 - 7
                                              5:50 TD
                                              D. Samuel 26 yard run ( R. Gould kick)
                                              23 - 7
                                              11:53 FG
                                              G. Zuerlein 51 yard field goal
                                              23 - 10
                                              8:02 TD
                                              D. Prescott 5 yard run ( G. Zuerlein kick)
                                              23 - 17
                                              Comment
                                              • budwiser
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 11-22-11
                                                • 3226

                                                #24
                                                in the 1st half, yeah. another td in the 2nd.

                                                was talking about deferring. don't defer. get the ball, score a td, let the other team scramble all game.
                                                Comment
                                                • Zlaniner
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-12-19
                                                  • 1697

                                                  #25
                                                  n i 9 e r s
                                                  Comment
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