NFL SB Props for idiots

[Justin7]

If you don't know the difference between a median and a standard deviation, you can still profit from the super bowl.

The public always plays the big dogs, which shifts the price out of wack. The wise guys can't afford to tie up all their money on big favorites (although they will dump the rest of their capital there on Sunday).

Here are a few ones that have value:
No successful 2-pt conversion -500 (fair -1000)
No overtime -850 (fair -2000)

Also, you can bet the "No" on any prop that reads Will (name) score a touchdown. Again, the public likes the yes, and the sharps can't tie up all their money.

Then, there's the oddball this year
Under 3.5 sacks -125 (fair -300).

I might have more later.

[bigboydan]

Justin, I'm curious what your thoughts are on the no scoring in the last 2 minutes of the first half prop?

It seems like every year some team always scores in the last 2 minutes of the half.

[Jay Edgar]

That sack prop is still -115/-115 at CRIS.

[rob]

Thanks, Justin. Good info.

[Justin7]

Justin, I'm curious what your thoughts are on the no scoring in the last 2 minutes of the first half prop?

It seems like every year some team always scores in the last 2 minutes of the half.

Right now, I'm seeing the "Yes" around -260. I think that is fairly priced.

[onlooker]

Good luck with them Justin. I will just pass.

[Illusion]

Good stuff as always Justin.

[goldengoat]

i thought about that sack prop

my 1st impression was over but i had to refigure

manning harldy ever gets sacked and the bears pass rush without tommie harris is only average

you figure the bears will be running 60% of the time but grossman would be 3 times as likely to get sacked or fumble

if grossman fumbles and the defense recovers does that count as a sack too (say like the ball is knocked out but grossman doesn't get tackled)?

[Justin7]

Also, look at Indy's defense. They allow teams to rush, but their pass defense doesn't record nearly as many sacks as other teams. I think they had 20 in the regular season (and allowed only 15).

[imgv94]

Justin is solid.. Great to have him here.