Bills +2.5 - The Patriots got exposed against the Colts, the first strong run defense they had played since their winning streak. The Bills front 7 isn't as good as the Colts, but the Bills were embarrassed in the first matchup between these teams and weather isn't likely to be as big of a factor. Harris will likely also be out and he is a starting running back that matters, he ran for over 100 yards in the first matchup. Allen is noticeably better in big games because the Bills are willing to run him more and risk him getting hurt, this game is the Bills season since they will have the tiebreaker against the Patriots if they win the game since the Bills would have a better divisional record if they beat the Patriots here.
Saints -3 - Tua can't throw down the field and the Dolphins strength is their pass defense their run defense struggles. Hill has been back for a couple games now and he has looked better, Tampa was a tough matchup for him because of the strong Tampa Bay run defense, this should be a better matchup, Kamara is healthy now. The Saints offensive line played much better against Tampa Bay after struggling because of injuries in previous weeks.
Saints -3 - Tua can't throw down the field and the Dolphins strength is their pass defense their run defense struggles. Hill has been back for a couple games now and he has looked better, Tampa was a tough matchup for him because of the strong Tampa Bay run defense, this should be a better matchup, Kamara is healthy now. The Saints offensive line played much better against Tampa Bay after struggling because of injuries in previous weeks.